Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Evaluation of Current Methodology (2000) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Introduction and Overview
Introduction and Overview
Pages 1-8
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The estimates are produced by using sophisticated statistical modeling techniques with data from multiple sources, including the March Current Population Survey, the 1990 decennial census, and administrative records. Legislation passed in 1994 called for the use of updated Census Bureau estimates of poor school-age children for counties and school districts to allocate more than $7 billion of funds each year under Title I of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act.
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The panel's final report (National Research Council, 2000) provides an agenda for research and development for the Census Bureau's SAIPE Program in the next decade.
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see National Research Council (1995a) for an evaluation of the current of ficial poverty measure and a proposed alternative measure; the issue of how poverty should be defined is not considered in this volume.
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When the developmental work began in 1994, the Census Bureau decided that it would not be able to produce estimates in time for the 1997-1998 allocations for a later year than 1993, given the time required for acquiring, processing, and applying the data for a new statistical model. In its first interim report (National Research Council, 1997)
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In its second interim report (National Research Council, 1998) , the panel recommended that the revised 1993 county estimates be used for Title I allocations for the 1998-1999 school year, which was done.
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Largely because of these complicating factors, there is a paucity of data for developing updated poverty estimates at the school-district level: there are currently no school district equivalents of the Internal Revenue Service or Food Stamp Program data that are used in the Census Bureau's state and county estimation models. Because of the lack of data at the school district level, the Census Bureau's procedure for developing 1995 school district poverty estimates used a simple model that assumes that the proportions or shares of poor school-age children in school districts within each county in 1995 were the same as they were in 1989 (as measured by the 1990 census)
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PLAN OF THE REPORT This reference volume describes and evaluates the Census Bureau's methodology for producing estimates of poor school-age children for counties and states for 1993 and 1995 and for school districts for 1995.5 The report brings together material in the panel's three interim reports to provide a comprehensive description of the current estimation methodology and evaluation results. Similar methods, with likely small modifications, will be used by the Census Bureau to produce state, county, and school district estimates of poor school-age children for the immediate future and to produce other SAIPE poverty estimates, which include total numbers of poor people and poor people under age 18 for states and counties and, for states only, numbers of poor children under age 5.
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Chapter 8 describes and evaluates the Census Bureau' s procedure for obtaining, from its population estimates program, state and county estimates of the total number of school-age children for 1994 and 1996 and school district estimates of the total number of school-age children and the total population in each district for 1996. Chapter 9 outlines research and development activities for further work on developing updated county and school district estimates of poor school-age children in the near term (see also National Research Council, 2000:Ch.3~.
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