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Population Estimates
Pages 141-156

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From page 141... ... Both numbers and proportions are needed to determine eligibility and allocation amounts for basic and concentration grants (see Chapter 2~.1 The population estimates of schoolage children that accompanied the 1993 county model estimates pertain to July 1 The Census Bureau also makes available on its web site estimated proportions of poor school-age children in which the denominators are estimates of related children aged 5-17 in each county. These estimates are developed by multiplying the estimates from the Census Bureau's population estimates program for the noninstitutionalized population aged 5-17 by the ratio of related children aged 5-17 to noninstitutionalized children aged 5-17 for each county in the 1990 census. Read the entire page →
From page 142... ... In this procedure, 1990 census data for school districts are applied to updated county population estimates. METHODS FOR POPULATION ESTIMATES This section describes the methods that the Census Bureau used to develop the following population estimates: county estimates of total population for 1994 and 1996; county estimates of the population by age for 1994 and 1996; and school district estimates of total population and school-age children for 1996. Read the entire page →
From page 143... ... Operationally, the county total population estimates are the sum of the estimates for four groups: Household population under age 65 (HHP < 65) ; Household population age 65 and over (HHP65+) Read the entire page →
From page 144... ... Except for internal migration, all components are controlled to national totals. Household Population Age 65 and Over The estimates for the household population age 65 and over use a component method in which: HHP65+~ = HHP65+~_~ + NI65+ + NMIG65+ + NETMOVE65+. Read the entire page →
From page 145... ... The state age estimates (which are controlled to the state total population estimates) use a component method in which migration rates by age for people under age 65 are derived from school enrollment data (U.S. Read the entire page →
From page 146... ... School District Population Estimates The Census Bureau uses a shares approach, similar to that used for distributing the number of poor school-age children among the school districts in a county, to estimate the total population and total school-age population for school districts. The method for producing 1996 estimates of total population and total school-age children for districts involved the following steps: retabulate the 1990 census data according to 1995-1996 school district boundaries, determine the 1990 census county share in each district or part of a district for total population and total school-age children, and apply those shares to the Census Bureau's 1996 county estimates of total population and total school-age children, respectively, derived by the procedures described above. Read the entire page →
From page 147... ... By comparison, for 1990 county estimates of total population, prepared using the Census Bureau's current estimation procedure, it is 3.6 percent (Davis, 1994~.7 The average proportional absolute differences do not seem to be concentrated in any 6The average proportional absolute difference is computed as the sum for all counties n (or all counties in a category) of the absolute difference between the estimate and the 1990 census figure for each county as a proportion of the census figure for each county, divided by the number of counties, or ~ [(IYmodel i - Ycensus i l) Read the entire page →
From page 148... ... 7.5 (6~5) 48.4 aExcludes Kalawao County, Hawaii, which had no persons aged 5-17 in 1980 or 1990. Read the entire page →
From page 149... ... 6.5 (4~9) 56.8 aExcludes Kalawao County, Hawaii, which had no persons aged 5-17 in 1980 or 1990. Read the entire page →
From page 150... ... 7.1 (5~9) 66.1 aExcludes Kalawao County, Hawaii, which had no persons aged 5-17 in 1980 or 1990. Read the entire page →
From page 151... ... 5.6 (4.9) 43.9 aExcludes Kalawao County, Hawaii, which had no persons aged 5-17 in 1980 or 1990. Read the entire page →
From page 152... ... , with 60 percent of these counties having negative differences, which is consistent with the pattern of negative differences for smaller counties. Negative average proportional algebraic differences also characterize counties with negative or lower rates of population growth (Table 8-2~; with lower percentages of black and other nonwhite population (Table 8-3~; with average or higher than average percentages of Hispanic population (Table 8-4~; with smaller percentages of poor population (Table 8-5~; with higher percentages of group quarters residents (Table 8-6~; and for counties in the Mountain, Pacific, North Central (East and West) Read the entire page →
From page 153... ... . The use of population estimates to convert estimated proportions from log rate models to estimated numbers had even less effect overall (compare column 2 with column 3 of Table 6-3 for the two log rate models) Read the entire page →
From page 154... ... Tables 8-9 and 8-10 provide summary statistics for the three sets of school district estimates of 1990 total population and 1990 total school-age children, respectively, compared with the 1990 census numbers. The statistics provided are the average absolute difference between the estimates from a method and the census expressed as a percent of the average total population or total school-age children in the census, and the average proportional absolute difference between each set of estimates and the 1990 census numbers. Read the entire page →
From page 155... ... The estimates from the three methods are controlled to the 1990 census national total population number before comparison to the 1990 census school district estimates. aThe formula, where there are n school districts or counties (i) Read the entire page →
From page 156... ... Within-county shares method using 10.4 1980 census shares applied to 1990 census county numbers (3) National stable shares method using 1980 census shares applied to 1990 census national number 1990 County Estimates from Census Bureau's Population Estimates Program 16.9 16.1 16.6 4.9 20.6 6.3 NOTES: School district estimates are based on 9,201 districts (9,243 districts in the 1980-1990 evaluation file minus 42 districts with estimated population 30 or less in 1980 or 1990) Read the entire page →

From page 141...

... Both numbers and proportions are needed to determine eligibility and allocation amounts for basic and concentration grants (see Chapter 2~.1 The population estimates of schoolage children that accompanied the 1993 county model estimates pertain to July 1 The Census Bureau also makes available on its web site estimated proportions of poor school-age children in which the denominators are estimates of related children aged 5-17 in each county. These estimates are developed by multiplying the estimates from the Census Bureau's population estimates program for the noninstitutionalized population aged 5-17 by the ratio of related children aged 5-17 to noninstitutionalized children aged 5-17 for each county in the 1990 census.

Population Estimates Pages 141-156

Population Estimates
Pages 141-156