Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Evaluation of Current Methodology (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Data Sources for County Estimates
Data Sources for County Estimates
Pages 15-30
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From page 15... ...
, which provides the dependent variable in the state and county regression models, and the 1990 decennial census, Food Stamp Program administrative records, and federal income tax return administrative records, which provide predictor variables for the state and county models. The state and county regression models also use population estimates from the Census Bureau's postcensal population estimates program, which are described in Chapter 8.
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The SAIPE county and state estimates used in recent allocations derive from CPS-based models that reflect a somewhat different standard of measurement than the census. The discussion therefore reviews differences between decennial census and CPS estimates of poverty.
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1 The margin of error is expressed in Table 3-1 as the relative width of the 90 percent confidence interval; that is the width of the interval as a percentage of the estimated number. Confidence intervals for a sample estimate are ranges that include the average result of all possible samples with a known probability; they are constructed from the estimate and its standard error (the measure of the magnitude of sampling variability of the estimate)
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aThe relative width of the confidence interval is the percentage that the width of the 90 percent confidence interval represents of the estimated number of poor related children aged 5-17 in a county. The 90 percent confidence interval is 3.29 times the standard error of the estimate.
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Although the level of poverty for an area at one point in time may not be a good measure of the area's poverty level at another point in time, there is nonetheless a relationship between the two measures. The county and state regression models take advantage of this relationship by including 1990 census poverty levels as predictor variables for estimating poverty later in the decade.
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This sample design means that estimates of numbers and proportions poor in large states are generally more precise than those in smaller states. The largest states, however, have larger relative errors due to sampling variability than would be expected if the CPS sample were allocated to the states in proportion to their population; the reverse holds true for smaller states.4 The CPS is carried out by permanent, experienced, and well-trained interviewers, who interview each household the first month it is in the sample in person, with subsequent interviews by telephoned For the March Income Supplement, the CPS asks household respondents about their money income received during the previous year, using a detailed set of questions for identifying about 28 different sources.
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Census Bureau, 1996:Table D-2. CPS undercoverage is corrected by ratio adjustments to the survey weights that bring the CPS estimates of population in line with updated national population controls by age, race, sex, and Hispanic origin.
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7 Although the CPS provides more current data than the decennial census, its much smaller sample size limits its ability to produce estimates for smaller areas. For all but a few very large counties, the CPS sample size is too small to produce reliable estimates.
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For 1993 estimates, averages of March 1993, 1994, and 1995 CPS data were used (reported income in 1992, 1993, and 1994, with population controls derived from the 1990 census, including an adjustment for the estimated undercount beginning with the March 1994 CPS)
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Table 3-5 provides a similar comparison of poverty rates. The CPS estimates in the two tables are averages of income data for 1988,1989, and 1990; averaging is used to improve precision given the small CPS sample size in smaller areas.
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aThe CPS estimates are 3-year centered averages of the March 1989, 1990, and 1991 CPS data (reported income in 1988, 1989, and 1990, with population controls derived from the 1980 census)
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aThe CPS estimates are 3-year centered averages of data from the 1989, 1990, and 1991 March CPS (reported income in 1988, 1989, and 1990, with population controls derived from the 1980 census)
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The Census Bureau examined a variety of administrative records and selected two sources as most nearly meeting these criteria: administrative data on recipients of food stamps and federal income tax return reports of child exemptions in families with re12Another difference is that the 1990 census questionnaire, but not the March CPS questionnaire, included a "total income" question. The intent of this question was to permit respondents to enter a single amount if they could not provide amounts by source.
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The Census Bureau further refined the food stamp counts in three ways: it subtracted counts by state of the numbers of people who received food stamps due to specific natural disasters from the counts of the total number of recipients; it used the results of time-series analysis of monthly food stamp data from October 1979 through September 1997 to smooth outliers; and it adjusted the counts of food stamp recipients in Alaska and Hawaii downward to reflect the higher eligibility thresholds for those states. For counties, the Census Bureau obtains counts of food stamp recipients from USDA and, in some instances, from state agencies.
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The number of child exemptions reported on tax returns for families with incomes below the poverty threshold, like the number of food stamp recipients, is an imperfect measure of poverty for school-age children. Not all people file tax returns, especially those with very low incomes or income mostly from nontaxable sources.
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Thus, the Census Bureau released SAIPE county estimates of poor school-age children in early 1997 for income year 1993 and county and school district estimates in early 1999 for income year 1995, for use for Title I allocations for the next two school years (1999-2000 and 2000-2001 in the case of the 1995 school district estimates) .l4 The reason for the lag between the income reference year and the year of release of estimates is that most data used in the county model are not available until 2 years after the period to which they refer.
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