Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Evaluation of Current Methodology (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: County Model Comparisons with 1990 Census Estimates
Appendix C: County Model Comparisons with 1990 Census Estimates
Pages 194-225
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From page 194... ...
Average absolute difference: the sum over all counties of the absolute (unsigned) difference between the model estimate of poor school-age children and the 1990 census estimate for each county, divided by the number of counties (3,141)
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From page 195... ...
and (4) , the counties are grouped into categories of the following characteristics: census geographic division; metropolitan status of county; population size in 1990; population growth from 1980 to 1990; percentage of poor school-age children in the 1980 census; percentage of Hispanic population in 1990; percentage of black population in 1990; persistent poverty from 1960 to 1990 for rural counties; economic type for rural counties; percentage of group quarters residents in 1990; whether the county had households in the CPS sample; and percentage change from 1980 to 1990 in the proportion of poor school-age children.2 Tables C-1 and C-2 show the number of counties in each category.
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From page 196... ...
New England 67 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 -2.9 35.9 Middle Atlantic 150 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 -2.8 27.1 East North Central 437 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -2.8 West North Central 618 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 -1.8 South Atlantic 591 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 14.8 East South Central 364 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 -4.5 14.1 West South Central 470 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -2.7 -18.1 Mountain 281 4.3 4.3 4.3 4.3 -23.2 Pacific 163 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.5 -21.3 Metropolitan Status Central county of metropolitan area 493 2.4 1.6 -0.1 -0.5 -1.6 Other metropolitan 254 -6.6 -5.0 5.1 6.3 3.2 Nonmetropolitan 2,394 -4.2 -2.8 -0.3 0.4 3.3 1990 Population Size under 7,500 525 -9.0 -2.3 -1.9 2.3 16.5 7,500- 14,999 630 -4.4 0.5 2.5 5.5 10.9 15,000-24,999 524 -5.1 -2.6 0.3 1.9 6.2 25,000-49,999 620 -4.2 -2.9 0.6 1.3 2.4 50,000-99,999 384 -3.5 -5.1 -1.2 -2.3 -2.5 100,000-249,999 259 -1.8 -4.4 -1.8 -3.5 -4.9 250,000 or more 199 3.3 3.2 0.5 0.5 -0.6 1980 to 1990 Population Growth Decrease of more than 10.0% 444 -1.9 0.6 -3.4 -1.9 9.1 Decrease 0.1-10.0% 972 -0.6 -0.5 -1.9 -1.8 7.5 0.0-4.9% 547 -2.8 -2.8 -3.2 -3.1 11.0 5.0- 14.9% 620 0.0 -1.0 0.2 -0.6 6.1 15.0-24.9% 260 7.7 5.8 5.5 4.6 -12.8 25.0% or more 292 -4.0 -1.4 1.7 3.1 -21.2
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From page 197... ...
MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES th 1990 in 1989: 197 Other Procedures Log Rate Stable Stable Shares Stable Rates Average of Under 18 Shares in State in State Census and (a)
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From page 198... ...
(i) Percent Poor School Age Children, 1980 Less than 9.4% 516 -4.0 -4.5 0.0 0.2 2.4 9.4- 11.6% 524 -0.5 -1.0 -1.6 -1.8 -9.9 11.7- 14.1 % 530 3.6 2.3 1.8 1.0 -4.2 14.2- 17.2% 523 0.9 1.2 -1.2 -1.4 -5.0 17.3-22.3% 519 1.8 1.7 0.3 -0.1 10.7 22.4-53.0% 523 -2.2 0.8 1.3 2.8 12.3 Percent Hispanic, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1,770 -3.4 -3.3 -1.6 -1.5 10.7 1.0-4.9% 847 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 5.0-9.9% 193 -1.4 -0.6 -1.1 -0.8 6.7 10.0-24.9% 181 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.5 -5.7 25.0-98.0% 150 3.9 4.6 2.2 2.7 -16.8 Percent Black, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1,446 -1.2 0.3 3.9 4.9 -3.7 1.0-4.9% 615 -0.7 -2.0 1.3 0.5 -6.3 5.0-9.9% 294 -2.9 -2.5 -0.7 -0.6 -8.4 10.0-24.9% 381 2.0 1.2 -1.0 -1.3 -2.6 25.0-87.0% 405 1.0 1.7 -1.8 -1.4 16.5 Persistent Rural Poverty, 1960- 19906 Rural, not poor 1,740 -4.0 -3.7 -1.2 -1.0 0.1 Rural, poor 535 -5.0 -2.1 0.7 2.1 9.8 Not classified 866 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 -1.2 Economic Type Rural CountiesC Farming 556 -5.5 -2.5 -1.6 0.7 13.2 Mining 146 -10.7 -5.1 -6.3 -3.6 -8.9 Manufacturing 506 -6.2 -5.9 -1.7 -1.0 12.1 Government 243 2.1 -1.3 6.3 3.2 -0.9 Services 323 -3.9 -3.0 -1.8 -1.2 -5.8 Nonspecialized 484 -3.7 -1.0 -0.1 1.4 2.2 Not classified 883 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 -1.2
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From page 199... ...
MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 199 Other Procedures Stable Rates Log Rate Stable Stable Shares in State Average of Under 18 (i) hares (ii)
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From page 200... ...
(i) Percent Group Quarters Residents, 1990 Less than 1.0% 545 -6.7 -2.7 2.0 4.7 -1.4 1.0-4.9% 2,187 0.3 0.7 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 5.0-9.9% 299 2.3 -4.4 0.5 -5.2 7.8 10.0-41.0% 110 14.2 -3.2 7.4 -7.5 1.8 Status in CPS, 1989- 1991 In CPS sample 1,028 1.4 1.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 In CPS, no poor children 5-17 246 -2.6 -1.9 7.3 7.8 10.0 Not in CPS sample 1,867 -4.1 -2.8 -0.1 0.6 0.6 Change in Poverty Rate for School-Age Children, 1980- 1990 Decrease of more than 3.0% 536 7.5 10.4 16.2 18.1 51.6 Decrease 0.1-3.0% 649 2.1 1.9 3.1 2.9 29.2 0.0-0.9% 272 -2.6 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 4.3 1.0-3.4% 621 3.8 2.2 3.4 2.6 -5.1 3.5-6.4% 532 -1.2 -2.4 -3.8 -4.3 -14.3 6.5-38.0% 523 -7.2 -5.2 -8.7 -7.8 -25.2 NOTES: The census estimates are controlled to the CPS national estimate for 1989.
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From page 201... ...
4.7 -1.4 -0.9 3.7 0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.1 -5.2 7.8 -1.4 -2.8 -0.8 -7.5 1.8 -0.9 -1.4 -2.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 0.5 7.8 10.0 3.7 12.0 5.9 0.6 0.6 2.3 -0.3 -2.3 18.1 51.6 30.1 32.8 30.0 2.9 29.2 8.0 9.8 12.1 0.5 4.3 -0.9 3.3 3.1 2.6 -5. 1 3.7 3.4 0.2 -4.3 -14.3 -7.7 -9.5 -8.3 -7.8 -25.2 -14.2 -16.5 -14.5 bCensus division states: New England: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania East North Central: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin West North Central: Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas South Atlantic: Delaware, Maryland, District of Columbia, Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida East South Central: Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi West South Central: Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas Mountain: Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Utah, Nevada Pacific: Washington, Oregon, California, Alaska, Hawaii CThe Economic Research Service, U.S.
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From page 202... ...
(i) Census Division New England 67 4.1 4.5 6.6 7.1 45.6 Middle Atlantic 150 -5.9 -8.4 0.7 -1.0 28.8 East North Central 437 -3.6 -3.0 2.5 3.0 0.6 West North Central 618 -3.1 -0.6 0.5 2.3 18.7 South Atlantic 591 1.2 2.5 8.9 9.8 28.6 East South Central 364 -4.6 -3.0 0.5 1.3 19.5 West South Central 470 -7.6 -4.6 -4.0 -2.3 -6.4 Mountain 281 0.6 5.4 7.2 10.4 -3.4 Pacific 163 10.2 13.6 17.8 20.2 -9.6 Metropolitan Status Central county of metropolitan area 493 0.6 -2.0 1.0 -0.6 4.2 Other metropolitan 254 -3.6 -0.8 11.6 13.7 16.2 Nonmetropolitan 2,394 -2.6 0.2 2.9 4.7 13.2 1990 Population Size under 7,500 525 -5.9 1.6 2.6 7.6 30.3 7,500-14,999 630 -1.0 3.0 5.7 8.4 16.3 15,000-24,999 524 -3.2 -1.8 2.1 3.2 9.0 25,000-49,999 620 -1.5 -0.7 4.2 4.6 6.0 50,000-99,999 384 -1.4 -3.3 2.5 1.2 3.1 100,000-249,999 259 -0.7 -3.4 1.5 -0.3 2.4 250,000 or more 199 1.0 0.4 1.3 1.1 7.9 1980 to 1990 Population Growth Decrease of more than 10.0% 444 -5.2 -1.0 -1.2 2.0 29.0 Decrease 0.1-10.0% 972 -3.3 -2.2 0.1 0.9 11.6 0.0-4.9% 547 -1.3 0.4 4.0 5.0 11.7 5.0- 14.9% 620 -0.7 0.0 4.7 5.0 9.9 15.0-24.9% 260 4.0 3.8 10.6 10.1 8.7 25.0% or more 292 -4.1 2.3 9.8 14.0 -4.0
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From page 203... ...
MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES ith 1990 in 1989: ory 203 Other Procedures Log Rate Stable Stable Shares Stable Rates Average of Under 18 Shares in State in State Census and (a)
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From page 204... ...
(i) Percent Poor School Age Children, 1980 Less than 9.4% 516 -4.1 -3.0 3.7 5.2 1.9 9.4- 11.6% 524 -1.7 -0.2 2.4 3.6 3.5 11.7- 14.1 % 530 -2.0 -1.2 1.4 2.0 5.6 14.2-17.2% 523 -0.3 0.8 3.9 4.7 15.6 17.3-22.3% 519 -2.6 -1.2 1.9 2.6 17.0 22.4-53.0% 523 -2.3 3.2 6.3 9.3 28.7 Percent Hispanic, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1,770 -3.2 -1.4 2.6 3.9 20.7 1.0-4.9% 847 1.0 3.1 7.1 8.3 4.7 5.0-9.9% 193 -0.6 0.7 2.2 3.3 -0.6 10.0-24.9% 181 -5.7 -3.0 -2.9 -1.2 -7.1 25.0-98.0% 150 -6.2 -3.3 -2.2 -0.3 -10.0 Percent Black, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1,446 -2.4 1.4 4.0 6.7 12.7 1.0-4.9% 615 -1.4 -2.1 3.1 2.4 5.3 5.0-9.9% 294 -2.4 -2.4 2.6 2.6 5.7 10.0-24.9% 381 -0.7 0.6 4.7 5.4 13.8 25.0-87.0% 405 -3.8 -2.7 0.0 0.9 23.1 Persistent Rural Poverty, 1960- l 99C Rural, not poor 1,740 -2.6 0.0 2.3 4.1 12.5 Rural, poor 535 -3.7 0.3 3.5 5.5 16.2 Not classified 866 -0.4 -1.1 5.2 4.8 8.6 Economic Type Rural Counties Farming 556 -5.2 0.3 0.3 4.2 29.0 Mining 146 -8.6 -1.2 -1.7 2.2 -2.4 Manufacturing 506 -3.8 -2.2 2.6 3.9 17.3 Government 243 5.8 5.1 11.8 10.5 5.8 Services 323 -2.1 -0.4 1.6 2.7 2.6 Nonspecialized 484 -2.8 -0.1 1.9 3.7 6.8 Not classified 883 -0.1 -0.8 5.4 5.1 8.8
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From page 205... ...
MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 205 Other Procedures Log Rate Stable Stable Shares Stable Rates Average of Under 18 Shares in State in State Census and (a)
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From page 206... ...
log rate model (under 18~.3 The four other 3The estimates from the four candidate models and the models considered in the first round of evaluations, listed below, are the final estimates for all counties, after the initial estimates from the county regression model are combined in a "shrinkage procedure" with direct CPS estimates for those counties with households in the CPS sample and raked for consistency with the estimates from the state model; see Chapter 4.
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From page 207... ...
and average proportional absolute difference (measure 2) between the estimates from the four candidate models and four procedures and the estimates from the census.
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From page 208... ...
; and (C.6) hybrid log rate-number model (under 21~.4 Also included are comparisons for a variant of each of the three rate models C.4a, C.5a, and C.6a, respectively in which 1990 census population figures instead of estimates from the Census Bureau's population estimates program are used to convert the estimated proportions of poor school-age children from each rate model to estimated numbers.
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From page 209... ...
, untransformed, rates converted to numbers with 1990 population estimates C.5a Rate model (under 21) , untransformed, rates converted to numbers with 1990 census estimates 20.0 299 18.8 C.6 Hybrid log rate-number model 298 17.1 (under 21)
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From page 210... ...
The use of 1990 population estimates instead of 1990 census figures to convert estimated proportions from the three rate models to estimated numbers increases the average absolute difference in the estimated number of poor school-age children by 8-10 percent and increases the average proportional absolute difference by about 6 percent for the log rate and rate models and 12 percent for the hybrid log rate-number model. (Compare the measures in Table C-3 for model C.4 and C.4a, for C.5 and C.5a, and for C.6 and C.6a.)
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From page 211... ...
In particular, most 6The proportional category differences differ somewhat across models because they are calculated relative to each county's 1990 census estimated number of poor school-age children before being summed. 7A statistical test established that the variations in the proportional category differences for categories of counties classified by population growth rate were significant for three of the four models tested: C.1, C.2, and C.3, but not C.6.
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From page 212... ...
The variations in the proportional category differences for counties characterized by percentage of Hispanic population are statistically significant for all models with this pattern that were tested. The differences in the patterns for the two measures may occur because the models behave differently for small counties with many Hispanics (primarily rural border counties)
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From page 213... ...
This pattern, which appears for both category difference measures, is statistically significant for the proportional category difference measure (Table Cub. Economic Type, Rural Counties The category differences and proportional category differences in the predicted number of poor school-age children vary for all models for rural counties categorized by their principal economic activity.
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From page 214... ...
214 APPENDIX C TABLE C-4 Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Algebraic Difference by Category of County (in percent) Model Log Number Log Rate Log Number Log Number Under 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 21 Under 18 State Effects Category C.1 C.2 C.3 C.4 Census Divisiona New England 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 Middle Atlantic 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 East North Central 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 West North Central 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 South Atlantic 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 East South Central 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 West South Central 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 Mountain 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 Pacific 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 Metropolitan Status Central county of metropolitan area 7.4 6.7 6.6 4.8 Other metropolitan -2.0 -0.3 -3.9 10.2 Nonmetropolitan 0.5 2.0 2.8 4.6 1990 Population Size under 7,500 -4.5 2.5 4.7 3.0 7,500- 14,999 0.4 5.5 6.0 7.6 15,000-24,999 -0.4 2.3 2.8 5.3 25,000-49,999 0.5 1.8 1.9 5.6 50,000-99,999 1.2 -0.4 -0.1 3.6 100,000-249,999 3.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 250,000 or more 8.4 8.3 7.9 5.5 1980 to 1990 Population Growth Decrease of more than 10.0% 3.0 5.6 9.0 1.3 Decrease 0.1-10.0% 4.3 4.4 5.9 2.9 0.0-4.9% 2.0 2.0 2.5 1.6 5.0-14.9% 5.0 3.8 3.8 5.2 15.0-24.9% 13.1 11.1 10.9 10.7 25.0% or more 0.7 3.5 -0.5 6.7
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From page 215... ...
MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES ensus 215 ember Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 ffects C.4 C.4a C.5 C.5a C.6 C.6a 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 11.8 4.8 4.5 4.8 4.5 7.7 7.4 10.2 7.5 9.7 7.0 2.5 -0. 1 4.6 5.8 4.6 5.8 -0.9 0.2 3.0 4.4 5.6 7.2 -6.6 -5.3 7.6 8.6 7.7 8.7 -0.9 o.a 5.3 6.4 5.2 6.3 -1.5 -0.4 5.6 6.1 5.5 6.0 0.3 0.7 3.6 3.9 3.8 4.0 0.3 0.6 3.0 3.1 1.7 1.8 2.1 2.2 5.5 5.0 5.7 5.3 9.2 8.8 1.3 1.9 2.4 3.0 2.4 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.9 4.0 1.6 2.3 1.2 1.9 1.3 2.0 5.2 5.1 5.6 5.6 4.2 4.2 10.7 9.9 10.9 10.0 12.6 1 1.7 6.7 6.6 5.8 5.6 4.1 3.9 continued on next page
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From page 216... ...
216 TABLE C-4 Continued APPENDIX C Model Log Number Log Rate Log Number Log Number Under 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 21 Under 18 State Effects Category C.1 C.2 C.3 C.4 Percent Poor School Age Children, 1980 Less than 9.4% 0.8 0.2 -1.0 4.9 9.4- 11.6% 4.4 3.9 3.3 3.2 11.7-14.1% 8.8 7.3 7.0 6.8 14.2- 17.2% 5.8 6.2 5.2 3.7 17.3-22.3% 6.8 6.7 8.5 5.3 22.4-53.0% 2.6 5.7 7.7 6.3 Percent Hispanic, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1.4 1.4 2.3 3.3 1.0-4.9% 5.5 5.0 4.7 5.4 5.0-9.9% 3.5 4.3 3.3 3.8 10.0-24.9% 7.3 6.8 7.4 5.7 25.0-98.0% 9.0 9.8 8.5 7.2 Percent Black, 1990 0.0-0.9% 3.6 5.2 5.3 9.0 1.0-4.9% 4.2 2.8 2.9 6.3 5.0-9.9% 1.9 2.4 1.5 4.2 10.0-24.9% 7.0 6.2 5.7 3.9 25.0-87.0% 6.0 6.7 7.9 3.1 Persistent Rural Poverty, 1960- l 99ob Rural, not poor Rural, poor Not classified 0.8 1.0 1.4 -0.3 2.7 5.2 6.7 6.2 5.8 Economic Type, Rural Countiesb Farming -0.8 2.4 7.0 3.3 Mining -6.3 -0.4 -4.0 -1.7 Manufacturing -1.6 -1.2 0.4 3.2 Government 7.2 3.6 8.7 11.6 Services 0.8 1.8 1.1 3.1 Nonspecialized 1.0 3.9 3.4 4.8 Not classified 6.7 6.2 5.8 5.2
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From page 217... ...
MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 217 ember Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 ffects C.4 C.4a C.5 C.5a C.6 C.6a 4.9 1.7 5.6 2.3 5.6 2.3 3.2 3.0 4.4 4.2 5.6 5.3 6.8 6.9 6.2 6.4 7.5 7.6 3.7 6.7 2.8 5.7 2.7 5.7 5.3 5.8 4.4 4.8 5.0 5.6 6.3 6.8 6.2 6.7 2.1 2.7 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.0 1.6 1.4 5.4 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.6 5.3 3.8 3.4 5.0 4.7 4.4 3.9 5.7 5.1 7.2 6.4 8.2 7.6 7.2 8.9 5.9 7.7 6.9 8.6 9.0 6.3 4.2 3.9 3.1 9.1 5.6 3.6 3.8 4.2 8.6 6.9 4.1 3.9 2.9 8.7 6.1 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.8 4.3 6.5 4.3 4.3 4.0 3.6 6.3 4.2 5.5 3.6 5.4 3.6 5.3 -1.1 0.5 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.8 -1.4 -1.2 5.2 4.8 5.2 4.8 7.2 6.9 3.3 5.2 -1.7 1.5 3.2 3.1 11.6 11.7 3.1 4.8 4.8 6.8 5.2 4.8 5.0 -1.4 9.7 3.1 4.4 5.3 6.9 1.8 3.3 9.7 4.8 6.3 4.8 -3.9 -2.1 -6.0 -1.5 1.9 -0.5 -0.4 7.3 -3.1 -1.7 2.0 1.2 1.4 6.9 continued on next page
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From page 218... ...
aCensus division states: New England: Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut Middle Atlantic: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania East North Central: Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin West North Central: Missouri, Minnesota, Iowa, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas
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From page 219... ...
Department of Agriculture, classifies rural counties by 1960-1990 poverty status and economic type. Counties not classified are urban counties and rural counties for which a classification could not be made.
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From page 220... ...
220 APPENDIX C TABLE C-5 Comparison of First-Round Model Estimates with 1990 Census County Estimates of the Number of Poor School-Age Children in 1989: Average Proportional Algebraic Difference for Counties in Each Category (in percent) Model Log Number Log Rate Log Number Log Number Under 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 21 Under 18 State Effects Category C.1 C.2 C.3 C.4 Census Division New England 9.3 9.7 8.1 11.9 Middle Atlantic -1.2 -3.9 -3.5 5.7 East North Central 1.2 1.8 2.2 7.5 West North Central 1.7 4.4 7.4 5.4 South Atlantic 6.2 7.6 8.1 14.3 East South Central 0.1 1.8 0.9 5.4 West South Central -3.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 Mountain 5.6 10.6 12.2 12.5 Pacific 15.6 19.2 19.2 23.7 Metropolitan Status Central county of metropolitan area 5.6 2.9 3.5 6.0 Other metropolitan 1.1 4.1 -0.1 17.1 Nonmetropolitan 2.2 5.1 6.5 7.9 1990 Population Size under 7,500 -1.3 6.6 9.9 7.7 7,500-14,999 3.9 8.1 9.3 10.9 15,000-24,999 1.6 3.0 4.2 7.2 25,000-49,999 3.4 4.2 3.7 9.3 50,000-99,999 3.4 1.5 1.0 7.5 100,000-249,999 4.2 1.4 1.4 6.6 250,000 or more 5.9 5.4 5.0 6.3 1980 to 1990 Population Growth Decrease of more than 10.0% -0.5 3.9 10.5 3.7 Decrease 0.1-10.0% 1.5 2.6 5.5 5.0 0.0-4.9% 3.6 5.3 5.1 9.2 5.0- 14.9% 4.2 4.9 4.1 9.9 15.0-24.9% 9.2 9.0 7.5 16.0 25.0% or more 0.7 7.3 -0.3 15.2
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From page 221... ...
MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES Census ory 221 ember Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 ffects C.4 C.4a C.5 C.5a C.6 C.6a 11.9 13.1 10.9 12.2 8.3 9.4 5.7 4.1 4.2 2.8 -1.2 -2.6 7.5 8.5 6.4 7.4 -0.1 0.7 5.4 7.3 6.1 8.0 -0.2 1.6 14.3 12.6 14.5 12.8 7.7 6.1 5.4 4.8 5.3 4.6 0.7 0.0 0.7 3.3 1.8 4.3 -6.7 -4.4 12.5 14.6 17.0 19.3 3.9 5.7 23.7 23.8 25.6 25.8 15.6 15.7 6.0 4.9 5.0 4.0 6.1 4.9 17.1 13.3 16.1 12.4 6.8 3.4 7.9 9.4 9.0 10.5 0.3 1.6 7.7 9.2 12.7 14.2 -3.5 -2.3 10.9 12.3 11.5 12.8 2.2 3.4 7.2 8.2 6.9 8.0 0.1 1.1 9.3 10.1 8.8 9.6 2.8 3.5 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.0 3.1 2.8 6.6 6.0 3.3 2.9 4.0 3.4 6.3 4.4 7.3 5.5 8.7 6.9 3.7 3.9 7.9 8.0 -1.7 -1.5 5.0 6.4 5.4 6.8 -0.7 0.6 9.2 9.9 8.2 8.9 2.7 3.4 9.9 10.2 9.6 10.0 3.4 3.6 16.0 15.6 15.6 15.2 8.0 7.6 15.2 15.7 16.2 16.9 3.9 4.1 continued on next page
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From page 222... ...
222 TABLE C-5 Continued APPENDIX C Model Log Number Log Rate Log Number Log Number Under 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 21 Under 18 State Effects Category C.1 C.2 C.3 C.4 Percent Poor School Age Children, 1980 Less than 9.4% 0.6 1.8 -1.3 8.9 9.4- 11.6% 3.2 4.8 3.5 7.5 11.7-14.1% 2.9 3.6 4.3 6.4 14.2-17.2% 4.6 5.8 8.1 9.1 17.3-22.3% 2.2 3.7 6.9 7.0 22.4-53.0% 2.5 8.3 11.2 11.5 Percent Hispanic, 1990 0.0-0.9% 1.6 3.5 5.1 7.7 1.0-4.9% 6.0 8.2 6.7 12.4 5.0-9.9% 4.3 5.7 6.4 7.2 10.0-24.9% -1.1 1.8 3.1 1.9 25.0-98.0% -1.5 1.5 4.7 2.6 Percent Black, 1990 0.0-0.9% 2.4 6.5 7.3 9.2 1.0-4.9% 3.5 2.8 3.5 8.2 5.0-9.9% 2.4 2.4 1.8 7.7 10.0-24.9% 4.2 5.6 4.5 9.9 25.0-87.0% 0.9 2.1 5.6 5.0 Persistent Rural Poverty, 1960- 1990 Rural, not poor 2.2 4.9 6.1 7.3 Rural, poor 1.0 5.3 7.7 8.6 Not classified 4.5 3.8 2.9 10.3 Economic Type, Rural Counties Farming -0.5 5.3 9.9 5.3 Mining -4.1 3.7 0.7 3.1 Manufacturing 1.0 2.7 3.5 7.6 Government 11.0 10.3 13.2 17.3 Services 2.7 4.5 4.3 6.6 Nonspecialized 2.0 4.9 4.8 7.0 Not classified 4.8 4.1 3.3 10.6
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From page 223... ...
MODEL COMPARISONS WITH CENSUS ESTIMATES 223 ember Log Rate Rate Log Hybrid Rate 21, Fixed Under 21 Under 21 Number Under 21 ffects C.4 C.4a C.5 C.5a C.6 C.6a 8.9 7.5 7.2 5.9 3.8 2.5 7.5 9.0 8.5 10.2 2.3 3.7 6.4 7.7 7.3 8.6 0.9 2.2 9.1 11.1 10.2 12.3 1.4 3.2 7.0 8.1 7.5 8.6 -0.6 0.4 1 1.5 10.6 13.0 1 1.0 2.4 1.5 7.7 7.6 8.4 8.2 1.5 1.4 12.4 12.9 12.1 12.7 5.6 6.1 7.2 10.0 9.3 12.4 0.6 3.0 1.9 5.4 3.3 6.9 -6.0 -2.9 2.6 7.4 3.8 8.7 -7.7 -3.5 9.2 10.4 10.4 1 1.7 1.5 2.6 8.2 8.7 8.0 8.7 2.0 2.4 7.7 6.6 7.9 6.9 3.1 2.1 9.9 9.8 9.0 9.0 3.9 3.7 5.0 5.4 5.9 6.2 -1.0 -0.5 7.3 9.4 8.7 10.8 0.1 1.9 8.6 8.3 8.4 8.1 0.0 -0.2 10.3 8.7 9.7 8.2 6.0 4.5 5.3 7.6 9.3 1 1.6 -3.5 -1.3 3.1 8.6 4.5 10.3 -6.7 -2.0 7.6 7.6 7.5 7.4 1.2 1.1 17.3 17.2 15.0 14.8 7.2 7.0 6.6 8.2 7.9 9.6 0.8 2.3 7.0 8.7 6.9 8.6 0.3 2.0 10.6 9.0 10.1 8.6 6.3 4.8 continued on next page
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From page 224... ...
Summary of Category Differences Three of the eleven characteristics examined show no pronounced patterns of overprediction or underprediction of the number of poor school-age children for any of the models: percentage of poor school-age children from the 1980 census; percentage of black population in 1990; and persistent rural poverty from 1960 to 1990. Four characteristics show patterns for all or all but one model in which some categories of counties are over~under~predicted relative to other counties: growth)
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From page 225... ...
Overall, there is no clearly best or worst model in terms of differences from the 1990 census estimates for categories of counties. Each model exhibits strengths and weaknesses (keeping in mind that the analysis is based on a single evaluation)
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Key Terms
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