Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in Poverty Evaluation of Current Methodology (2000) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix D: Use of School Lunch Data in New York State for the Estimation of School-Age Children in Poverty: An Analysis
Appendix D: Use of School Lunch Data in New York State for the Estimation of School-Age Children in Poverty: An Analysis
Pages 226-243
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From page 226... ...
First, for the purpose of estimating the number of school-age children who are in poor families in 1989, we compare estimates from using school lunch data for 1990 with estimates from the Census Bureau's constantshare method that is based on 1980 census data. Second, we examine the sensitivity of various methods in estimating the 15 percent threshold for concentration grants.
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From page 227... ...
The evaluation below compares these estimates of poor school-age children to those estimated using the census constant-share method, which applies the 1980 census shares of poor school-age children for school districts (or parts of school districts) within counties to the 1990 census county estimates of poor school-age children (synthetic method (2)
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From page 228... ...
lunch participants. The mean unweighted algebraic percentage error is the sum over all school districts of the algebraic difference between the estimate of poor school-age children from a model and the 1990 census estimate as a proportion of the census estimate for each district, divided by the number of districts.
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From page 229... ...
It is of interest to examine eligibility for concentration grants in those districts with less than 20,000 population under three different scenarios: the current two-stage process, the direct allocation process to districts without controls, and direct allocations when school district poverty estimates must sum to the census county totals. We examine how concentration grants eligibility differs under these circumstances when school lunch data are used rather than census constant-share estimates, using 1990 census ratio-adjusted counts as the measure of truth.
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From page 230... ...
230 APPENDIX D TABLE D-2 Mean Absolute and Algebraic Percentage Errors for Children Aged 5-17 in Families in Poverty, Various Methods, New York State School Districts in Evaluation Universe, 1990, Unweighted, in percent Census Constant 1980 Share Free Lunc Percent of Mean Mean Mean Districts Absolute Algebraic Absolute Category (N = 623) % Error % Error % Error Total 100.0 53.4 31.2 48.7 1990 School District Population Under 2,500 11.9 66.3 34.0 57.4 2,500-4,999 14.3 41.2 15.8 40.1 5,000-7,499 17.5 57.7 32.6 65.8 7,500-9,999 10.8 58.7 28.3 47.2 10,000-14,999 12.5 61.3 45.1 53.2 15,000-19,999 9.5 43.5 29.8 39.3 20,000-29,999 10.8 67.2 55.8 47.3 30,000-39,999 5.3 36.5 11.6 37.2 40,000-49,999 2.9 42.6 25.1 36.7 50,000-99,999 3.9 24.9 10.7 24.2 100,000 or more 0.8 12.0 -12.0 5.1 1980-1990 Population Growth Decrease of 10.0% or more 3.9 45.5 30.6 23.4 Decrease of 5.0-9.9% 12.0 54.7 34.9 63.0 Decrease of 0.1-4.9% 24.4 48.1 27.1 39.3 Increase of 0.0-4.9% 21.8 50.6 28.1 47.9 Increase of 5.0-9.9% 15.9 58.2 35.8 43.0 Increase of 10.0% or more 22.0 59.4 33.4 60.6 Percentage Poor School-Age Children, 1990 0.0% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 %-5.9% 34.2 97.7 83.6 81.4 6.0-8.9% 16.1 42.1 20.1 41.9 9.0-12.4% 17.0 33.1 8.7 41.0 12.5-16.4% 15.1 26.4 3.0 22.6 16.5-23.9% 11.9 23.6 -15.6 24.3 24.0% or more 3.5 24.6 -20.6 24.2
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From page 231... ...
USE OF SCHOOL LUNCH DATA IN NEW YORK STATE dren School 231 hare Free Lunch Free and Reduced-Price Lunch Mean Mean Mean Mean aic Absolute Algebraic Absolute Algebraic r % Error % Error % Error % Error 48.7 7.1 52.1 14.0 57.4 4.6 59.8 10.1 40.1 -0.4 41.9 4.2 65.8 30.4 71.2 38.8 47.2 -12.1 45.7 -10.1 53.2 22.1 60.4 31.3 39.3 -6.3 43.1 1.3 47.3 14.1 54.3 27.8 37.2 -9.0 38.3 -3.3 36.7 -14.4 36.9 -8.0 24.2 -7.0 26.5 -2.9 5.1 5.1 4.7 -0.9 23.4 -0.9 31.8 10.0 63.0 7.0 67.5 11.0 39.3 -10.3 40.4 -4.9 47.9 20.4 51.2 27.7 43.0 12.0 47.2 20.1 60.6 11.3 64.6 19.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.4 22.2 90.2 37.6 41.9 2.7 44.8 8.9 41.0 6.8 41.7 10.6 22.6 -2.0 22.0 0.8 24.3 -10.4 23.4 -12.3 24.2 -16.3 24.5 -21.4 continued on next page
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From page 232... ...
As shown in Table D-4, these 476 districts represent 76 percent of all districts in the evaluation universe for New York, but they contain only 35 percent of the poor children aged 5-17 in the census evaluation universe. Tables D-5 to D-8 examine estimates of the number of districts and percentage of school-age children who are in poor families under alternative estimation methods in 1990.
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From page 233... ...
use a similar approach, but with the county estimates of school-age children who are in poor families in 1989 produced from the Census Bureau's county model. The school lunch estimates are produced, as outlined above, by using 1990 county ratio-adjusted estimates of school-age children who are in poor families from the 1990 census and allocating them to constituent school districts by the share of
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From page 234... ...
234 APPENDIX D TABLE D-3 Mean Absolute and Algebraic Percentage Errors for Children Aged 5-17 in Families in Poverty, Various Methods, New York State School Districts in Evaluation Universe, 1990, Weighted by Children Aged 5-17 in Poverty, 1990 Census, in percent Census Constant 1980 Share Category Percent of Districts (N = 623) Mean Absolute % Error Mean Algebraic % Error Free Lunc Mean Absolute % Error Total 100.0 23.9 0.8 22.3 1990 School District Population Under 2,500 11.9 43.4 13.8 38.5 2,500-4,999 14.3 30.4 4.2 31.6 5,000-7,499 17.5 31.6 -0.1 34.2 7,500-9,999 10.8 32.5 -4.4 32.6 10,000-14,999 12.5 34.8 13.2 32.0 15,000-19,999 9.5 21.6 4.0 24.9 20,000-29,999 10.8 37.8 21.4 36.3 30,000-39,999 5.3 31.5 -2.0 27.9 40,000-49,999 2.9 33.6 9.4 34.0 50,000-99,999 3.9 18.3 -0.4 21.0 100,000 or more 0.8 10.4 -10.4 3.4 1980- 1990 Population Growth Decrease of 10.0% or more 3.9 31.2 26.2 9.8 Decrease of 5.0-9.9% 12.0 13.7 -4.2 10.2 Decrease of 0.1-4.9% 24.4 20.8 -3.7 17.2 Increase of 0.0-4.9% 21.8 31.1 9.9 32.5 Increase of 5.0-9.9% 15.9 30.1 2.2 29.9 Increase of 10.0% or more 22.0 32.4 2.9 39.0 Percentage of Poor School-Age Children, 1990 0.0% 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1-5.9% 34.2 53.4 40.3 47.1 6.0-8.9% 16.1 34.0 9.6 34.3 9.0- 12.4% 17.0 22.2 4.5 36.3 12.5-16.4% 15.1 22.7 -2.1 19.6 16.5-23.9% 11.9 19.0 -14.8 18.2 24.0% or more 3.5 11.3 -10.1 5.4
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From page 235... ...
USE OF SCHOOL LUNCH DATA IN NEW YORK STATE Wren school 17 in 235 hare Free Lunch Mean Mean Absolute Algebraic % Error % Error Free and Reduced-Price Lunch Mean Mean Absolute Algebraic % Error % Error 22.3 38.5 31.6 34.2 32.6 32.0 24.9 36.3 27.9 34.0 21.0 3.4 9.8 0.2 17.2 32.5 29.9 39.0 o.o 47.1 34.3 36.3 9.6 8.2 5.4 1.6 -7.4 11.2 1.3 -4.6 6.8 o.s 3.8 3.1 -6.8 -1.5 3.4 2.2 -3.8 1.9 8.6 0.3 2.0 o.o -5.3 2.8 19.5 -1.6 1.4 -0.6 24.2 39.2 31.8 34.9 30.0 35.6 28.7 39.7 28.1 35.6 24.0 5.3 24.2 7.0 17. 33.1 30.6 38.0 o.o 52.1 36.7 38.5 20.0 6.2 9.1 1.3 -4.5 -7.3 3.9 -4.5 0.9 5.3 21.1 3.4 -6.3 -3.2 -3.0 7.7 9.8 1.1 .5 3.3 4.6 o.o 8.7 8.6 23.5 -2.3 -3.3 -7.8 continued on next page
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From page 236... ...
Tables D-5 and D-6 provide estimates for the two-tier concentration grant eligibility for districts with total population (from the 1990 census) of less than 20,000.
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From page 237... ...
This problem is further magnified when the free and reduced-price lunch counts are employed. Table D6 illustrates where each method errs relative to the eligibility categorization of the census counts: as might be expected, the school lunch estimates produce a substantial number of false positives.
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From page 238... ...
Districts Method Poor Children Aged 5-17 Number Percent Number Percent Census Counts 76 16.0 16,689 27.3 Census-based Estimates 78 16.4 14,162 23.1 Model-based Estimates 76 16.0 14,134 23.1 Free Luncha 112 23.5 21,662 35.4 Free and Reduced- 136 28.6 24,515 40.0 price Luncha NOTES: Cell entries are for school districts and poor school-age children that would be eligible for concentration grants according to various methods (see text) under the current two-stage allocation process (i.e., both county and school district have more than 6,500 or more than 15% poor school-age children)
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From page 239... ...
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From page 240... ...
bControls are imposed at the county level so that number of poor children and number of children in the school district must sum to county census counts for 1990. controlled to the statewide total of school-age children living in poor families for the 476 districts with populations of less than 20,000 or to a similar county total.
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From page 241... ...
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From page 242... ...
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From page 243... ...
· In New York State, the school lunch program is administered separately from most other programs, which can make use of the administrative data difficult (e.g., schools sometimes have separate identification numbers, which makes matching to other data very time consuming)
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