Inland Navigation System Planning The Upper Mississippi River-Illinois Waterway (2001) / Chapter Skim
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The Navigation Feasability Study
The Navigation Feasability Study
Pages 29-60
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From page 29... ...
As mentioned, the committee reviewed and commented on a draft of the feasibility study, as well as on other important, supporting studies the committee was directed to by the Corps. This report thus may not reflect the Corps' final navigation feasibility study.
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From page 30... ...
However, the study purpose and scope in the UMR-lWW navigation draft feasibility study was framed in comparatively narrow terms (USAGE, 2000b) : The Navigation Study is a feasibility study addressing navigation improvement planning for the UMR-TWW System for the years 2000-2050.
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From page 31... ...
The Corps should address a wider range of environmental issues in the UMR-lWW feasibility study, rather than limiting the study to mitigating the environmental damage caused by lock extensions and the resulting incremental increases in barge traffic. Given the relatively narrow range of alternatives considered for addressing waterway congestion on the UMR-lWW, Congress should instruct the Corps to first consider nonstructural options for improving traffic management as the baseline condition for the NED alternative.
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From page 32... ...
A true systems view of the UMRTWW would acknowledge that a thorough understanding of the current state of the Upper Mississippi River and floodplain ecosystem must be related to structural modifications in the Upper Mississippi River basin, to operations of the UMR-IWW navigation system, and to ecosystem responses to a range of natural and anthropogenic influences within the Upper Mississippi River basin. The feasibility study would also benefit from a clarification of the roles of the environmental studies in the decision-making process regarding lock extensions.
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From page 33... ...
The Corps' endorsement of the theoretical concept of spatial equilibrium is commendable, because accepted theoretical concepts will form a more credible basis for benefit estimation than the approaches formerly used by the Corps. Unfortunately, possibly because of limited time and data, the specific models the Corps developed for waterway traffic forecasts in the UMR-lWW study are inadequate.
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From page 34... ...
5. Forecast how the performance of each mode and route is affected by the traffic volumes carried.
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From page 35... ...
The difference between production and domestic consumption was assumed to be exported. When this approach was shown to overestimate recent exports, the Corps' consultants (Jack Faucett Associates (IFA)
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From page 36... ...
Mode Choice and Transportation Congestion Forecasts of commodity flows by route are inputs into ESSENCE, a simulation mode} that forecasts how much of the traffic will be carried by barges, the levels of waterway congestion, and the resulting increase in barge costs. The ESSENCE model describes the performance of the waterway system in great detail, but it makes rather simple assumptions about alternative modes of shipping.
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From page 37... ...
All four areas affect the results of the evaluations of improvements on the Upper Mississippi River-~linois Waterway, but the first two are particularly important. Forecasts of Domestic and Foreign Commodity Production and Use The Corps' initial forecasts (TEA, 1997)
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From page 38... ...
......... Qo Quantity Inland Navigation System Planning FIGURE 4.2 The Barge Shipment Demand Curve in the ESSENCE Model.
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From page 39... ...
IFA identified the short-term phenomena that affected the export volumes from ~ 995-2000. The Mississippi River floods of ~ 993, the loss of acreage planted because of the flooding, the closing of the river to navigation during the 1993 floods, and "hot spots" in grain shipments were all identified as short-term phenomena not likely to reoccur.
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From page 40... ...
The ESSENCE model implies that farmers who choose to ship by barge lie within a circle centered on the loacling port. As relative barge rates decline, the radius of the circle expands, since farmers further from the port can afford the shipping costs to the port, and vice versa.
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From page 41... ...
the model cannot link the production areas with alternative markets, including New Orieans. Thus, the ESSENCE model is not a spatial equilibrium model.
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From page 42... ...
Barge shipping rates were higher than raid shipping rates during this entire period. Because barge rates are usually lower than rail rates, removing the barge rate variability essentially assumes that rail rates will always exceed barge rates.
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From page 43... ...
A major reason for the absence of spatial equilibrium characteristics (e.g., no specific origins of grain in the model) in the ESSENCE model was that the Corps did not identify and estimate supplies of grain available in local areas.
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From page 44... ...
, but a particular barge-Ioading elevator typically has access to more than one barge company on the Upper Mississippi River. While inland rural grain elevators typically have access to only one railroad (if at all)
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From page 45... ...
For example, the rate and quantity data for different years were of no use in the study, as no inference can be drawn from these data. Much of the data collected for the environmental studies were also of very limited value: while some of the individual environmental studies may have been scientifically sound, it is not clear how the results from those studies affect the decision regarding lock extensions.
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From page 46... ...
The 1982 projection from Technical Report A, Navigation and Transportation, Comprehensive Master Plan for the Management of the Upper Mississippi River System, prepared for the Upper Mississippi River Basin Commission by U.S. Department of Army, Corps of Engineers.
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From page 47... ...
The benef~t-cost study used to justify the building of the canal forecasted coal production in eastern Kentucky to increase several fold in response to the high energy prices of the 1970s. That new traffic was then expected to travel the shorter route to the Gulf of Mexico through the new canal rather than the traditional route via the Tennessee, Ohio, and Mississippi Rivers.
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From page 48... ...
In order to avoid such problems in the future, waterway traffic projections for new projects should be examined far more carefully to eliminate the possibility of upwardly biased forecasts. and that construction needs to begin in 2001 in order to help grain farmers avoid the high barge rates that will make them less competitive in the world market.
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From page 49... ...
Environmental studies tasks in the navigation feasibility study included (~) developing data management/mathematical modeling strategies for extrapolation of impact data to the Upper Mississippi River system, (2)
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From page 50... ...
Congress resolve conflicts between commercial navigation and other groups in the region (UMRBC, 19821. The Upper Mississippi River Basin Commission master plan recommended a habitat rehabilitation and enhancement program, a long-term resource monitoring program, and a computerized inventory and analysis system.
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From page 51... ...
Unfortunately, the second lock study at Lock and Dam 26 today merely represents a foregone opportunity to enhance understanding of human impacts on the Mississippi River system. Environmental Data, Modeling, anal Related Analyses The environmental analyses in the navigation feasibility study are supported by the Corps' draft environmental impact statement (DETS)
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From page 52... ...
_ ~ .,, Deficiencies of the Navigation Feasibility Study Some groups (e.g., the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service)
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From page 53... ...
The lack of this type of interdisciplinary, systemwide understanding is a weakness of the draft navigation feasibility study and reflects the fact that no systemwide study of the long-term effects of the navigation system and its operations including the ecological effects of the creation of a system of navigation pools has yet to be conducted. A systemwide study assessing the operation and maintenance impacts associated with the Upper Mississippi River and Illinois Waterway system project should be conducted.
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From page 54... ...
The absence of integrative analysis in the draft feasibility study to date is a concern. In summary, the UMR-lWW draft navigation feasibility study, although somewhat of a landmark in the history of contemporary Corps of Engineers water resources project planning studies, has not conducted the environmental analyses necessary to provide information on, as stated in the 1970 Flood Control Act, "improving the quality of the environment in the overall public interest." The focus is on environmental studies that consider only incremental traffic effects, and not on a more comprehensive analysis of system-level consequences, and studies directed to the improvement of environmental quality.
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From page 55... ...
1987-2003 $32.5 Lock and Dam 1 (multiple stages) 1983-2003 $56.2 Lower St.
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From page 56... ...
In the case of Lock 25, for example, the first major rehabilitation would be scheduled for 2035, rather than 2020 (see Table 4.21. The importance of rehabilitation cost savings caused the Corps to closely evaluate the timing of the lock chamber extension projects, under the "optimal timing" analysis reported in the draft feasibility study, to ensure that the proposed lock construction would!
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From page 57... ...
The Navigation Feasibility Study TABLE 4.3 Future Rehabilitation Project Costs Per Site (FY 1997 Price Levels Feature Lock w/only localized concrete repairs Lock "/complete chamber concrete resurfacing Dam SOURCE: USACE, 2000a. 57 Project Cost $25,000,000 $30,000,000 $15,000,000 TABLE 4.4 Number of Cycles Versus Rehabilitation Years Year Year Rehab of of Year Cycle Year Lock First First # of Cycles # of in Cycles # of Site Traffic Rehab Cycles Repeat Cycles Years Repeat Cycles 25 1940 1995 353,0 2022 357,00 27 2048 367,00 26 24 1940 1995 331,0 2021 334,00 26 2046 343,00 25 22 1940 1990 266,0 2013 269,00 23 2033 264,00 20 21 1940 1990 272,0 2013 269,00 23 2034 274,00 21 20 1940 1990 269,0 2014 273,00 24 2035 266,00 21 19 1940 2005 225,0 2042 225,00 37 -- - -- - -- 18 1940 1995 305,0 2021 305,00 26 2046 305,00 25 17 1940 1995 289,0 2021 289,00 26 2046 289,00 25 16 1940 1995 312,0 2022 312,00 27 2048 312,00 26 15 1940 1995 408,0 2023 408,00 28 2050 312,00 27 14 1940 2000 439,0 2033 439,00 33 2065 439,00 32 Notes: Lock 19 is a 1,200-foot lock chamber; thus, number of cycles is lower for same traffic condition.
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From page 58... ...
58 TABLE 4.5: Scheduled Lock Rehabilitation Expenditures ($ Millions) Inland Navigation System Planning Lock 25 Lock 24 Lock 22 Locks 20 & 21 Without With Without With Without With Without With Year Project Project Project Project Project Project Project Project 2010 - - - - - - - 2015 - - - - 30 - 30 2020 30 - 25 - - - - 2025 - - - - - - - 2030 - - ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ 2035 - 25 - - - 25 - 2040 - - - 25 25 - 25 25 2045 25 - 30 - - - - 2050 - - - - - ~ ~ ~ 2055 - - ~ ~ ~ ~ 5 ~ ~ 2060 - 35 ~ 2065 - - - 35 30 - 30 35 TABLE 4.5 (continued)
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From page 59... ...
This committee has been critical of the demand forecast. If new waterway traffic demand forecasts are developed, it will be important to revisit the rehabilitation costs analysis to ensure consistency with the revised traffic demand forecasts.
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From page 60... ...
If lock extensions on the UMR-TWW are sensitive to construction costs being no more than 25 percent above the Corps' estimate, it is likely that escalating costs will greatly reduce the project's net benefits. The Value of Independent Peer Review Large and important projects such as proposed lock extensions on the UMR-lWW would benefit from a second opinion.
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