Health Risks of Radon and Other Internally Deposited Alpha-Emitters BEIR IV (1988) / Chapter Skim
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VIII Previous Estimates of the Risk due to Radon Progeny
VIII Previous Estimates of the Risk due to Radon Progeny
Pages 564-576
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From page 564... ...
Like the committee's lifetime risk estimates develop ea in Chapter 2, two steps are usually involved in estimating the risks from radon exposure: the development of an appropriate risk coefficient from epidemiological studies, and the projection of risks over a defined exposure and followup periods. Table VIII-1 lists risk coefficients developed in a number of epidemiological studies.
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From page 565... ...
565 o so Pa o C
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From page 566... ...
The exponential term allows for the excess risk to decline with time following exposure, and the survival ratio adjusts for competing causes of mortality. Given the parameters of this model, one integrates over t from age 40 to maximal assumed life (age 85)
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From page 567... ...
In light of the complexity of risk arising from chronic radiation exposure, substantial data would be required for an adequate evaluation of such subtle patterns of risk. An informal method of considering this issue is to examine additive excess risk after cessation of exposure.
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From page 568... ...
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From page 569... ...
It appears that substantial weight was given to the results from the Swedish, Newfoundland, and Czechoslovakian miner surveys. The Colorado Plateau uranium miners had much lower lung-cancer risks, which the committee thought was due to their high dose rates.
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From page 570... ...
REPORT OF THOMAS AND MCNElLL The report of Thomas and McNeill and c~workerst6~47 reviewed epidemiological and anunal data on lung cancer, bone and head sarcomas, and some other cancers, with an emphasis on lung cancer from radon progeny. To develop risk estimates, the authors considered data from the Czechoslovakian, Ontarian, and Colorado Plateau uranium miners; the Newfoundland {luorspar miners; the Swedish metal miners; and (for inferences regarding the shape of the dose-response curve, but not the magnitude of risk)
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From page 571... ...
Their analysis indicated an estimated value of 2.28/100 WLM for the excess relative risk. In selecting this estunate, they discounted a substantially lower risk among the Colorado Plateau miners; and, to some extent, by using a cell-killing model, they compensated for the lower risks per unit exposure at very high levels of cumulative exposure.
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From page 572... ...
provided an upper bound to the lifetime lung-cancer risk associated with radondaughter exposure in the general population. The report originated in an international workshop on radiation protection principles for naturally occurring radionuclides.
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From page 573... ...
The report reviewed data from American uranium miners, Swedish underground miners, Newfoundland lluorspar miners, iron-ore miners in the United Kingdom, and Czechoslovakian uranium miners. The upper bound of the attributable-risk range was clearly derived from analysm of the Czechoslovakian data; the derivation of the lower limit is unclear, although the Swedish data reported by Snibsi4 apparently were considered.
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From page 574... ...
Relying on reports from those studies and on the 1977 UNSCEARi~ and 1980 BEIR IIIii reviews, it cited a range of attributable risk of 2-20 cases/106 person-yr/WLM. Because the effect of exposure was noted to vary with age at exposure, the group considered 515 cases/106 person-yr/WLM as The most probable range,n on the basis of averaging cover all age periods during occupational work." Over ``a mean manifestation period of 30 years," the group translated the attributablerisk range of 5-15 cases/106 person-yr/WLM into a total lifetime risk of 1.5-4.5 excess cases/WLM.
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From page 575... ...
As discussed in Chapter 2, differences in estimated lifetime risks occur if the relative risk is constant or if it is permitted to vary with tune-related factors. Similarly, lifetime risks that are derived from models of additive excess risk depend on the modeling of time-related effects.
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From page 576... ...
1984. Lung cancer in Swedish iron miners exposed to low doses of radon daughters.
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