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2. Methods for Answering Behavioral Questions
Pages 9-28

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From page 9...
... SIX ANALYTIC METHODS Traditional Energy Demand Models Energy demand models are analytic tools in which mathematical equations are used to estimate how demand might respond to various policy choices. Such models have considerable appeal as a method of energy policy analysis.
From page 11...
... can improve the situation as an empirical basis is developed for choosing among the search strategies consumers may plausibly use. Analysis of Existing Data The Energy Information Administration and the utility companies have extensive data on residential and commercial energy use.
From page 12...
... To the extent that OMB clearance is perceived as an obstacle to be avoided, it becomes more difficult for policy analysts to achieve the careful design and standardization of survey questions that is needed to draw generalizable conclusions from research. A practical approach to standardization within the existing system is for researchers to use or modify survey items that have been laboriously developed by the Energy Information Administration for its Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS)
From page 13...
... Experimentation was the method of choice in those studies because there was no empirical basis for modeling the effect of prices based on time of use and because the experimental rates were so far from most energy users' past experience that self-reported intentions could not be relied upon. The same rationale suggests that experiments could provide the most valid answers to many questions about the design of energy information programs and about the marketing and implementation of conservation programs.
From page 14...
... In the context of an already planned pilot program, an experiment requires only normal evaluation efforts and the addition of special care in assigning participants to programs and in making data on program participants comparable with data on suitable compar ison group. The experimental method has had difficulties as a policy tool.
From page 15...
... Outcome evaluations quantitatively estimate overall program effects. For example, they may measure rates of participation in a program, sales of a new technology, improvement in the energy efficiency of building shells, or the net energy savings from a policy or program.
From page 16...
... In process evaluations, open-ended interviews can identify critical features of a program that both researchers and program operators have failed to anticipate. And small-scale experiments with program elements can be very informative as part of an evaluation study even if the overall evaluation does not use an experimental design.
From page 17...
... US ING BEHAVIORAL METHODS TO ANALYZE POLICY I SSUES This section discusses the role of the different research methods for addressing behavioral questions that arise in policy analyses of energy information, incentives, standards, and technologies. This fourfold classification of policies and programs is somewhat artificial: many incentive programs have informational aspects, standards can affect the use of information, the adoption of new technologies depends on incentives and information, and so forth.
From page 18...
... Information and Information Programs Table 2 summarizes the appropriateness of the six analytic methods identified above for addressing the five key behavioral issues related to information. How Can a Program be Designed so that the Information it Offers is Used?
From page 20...
... Forecasting the effects of information cannot at present be done on the basis of any well-developed theory; the only reasonable approach is to rely on data from past programs and to make judgments about differences and similarities between those programs and the one whose effects are to be predicted. Most government energy information programs have had small effects or none, and the same can be expected from new programs unless they adopt some of the more effective techniques that have been demonstrated in various studies (see Stern and Aronson, 1984: Chapter 4~.
From page 21...
... The way to be sure of conclusions from a process evaluation is to alter the program based on those conclusions and observe the effects. Incentive Programs Table 3 summarizes the appropriateness of the six analytic methods for addressing five key behavioral issues related to incentives for conservation.
From page 23...
... The experimental approach can often yield quite precise assessments of nonfinancial factors by manipulating them in the course of conducting a program. For example, a program can give special training to some energy auditors and not others, follow up energy audits with personal contacts for some customers and not others, offer additional promotional services on a random basis, or experiment with other marketing or implementation innovations.
From page 24...
... High implicit discount rates indicate that energy efficiency is not a major influence on purchases; they do not, however, provide information on the conditions under which efficiency may become more influential. How Might Alternatives to Standards, Such as Appliance Labels or Energy Ratings for Buildings, Make Energy Efficiency a Prominent Consideration in Purchase Decisions?
From page 26...
... Technological Research and Development Table 5 summarizes the appropriateness of the six analytic methods for addressing the two behavioral issues related to research and development of energy-efficient technologies. Which Energy-Efficient Building Technologies Are Most Likely to be Readily Accepted in the Market?
From page 27...
... Surveys and ethnographic methods are valuable components of a behavioral strategy for developing energy-efficient technology (see above)
From page 28...
... Since only a few consumers can be involved in trying prototypes, ethnographic approaches, which gain the deepest insight from the fewest consumers, may be the method of choice for understanding reactions to prototypes. An experimental approach, comparing relevant behaviors before and after adoption of a new technology with behavior of comparable energy users without the technology, becomes useful as more prototypes become available for trial.


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