Post-Challenger Assessment of Space Shuttle Flight Rates and Utilization (1986) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C: Logistics Considerations
Appendix C: Logistics Considerations
Pages 33-38
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From page 33... ...
The lower curve represents an upper bound for a 90 percent chance of no loss. Figure C-2 shows the situation assuming one loss, i.e., the upper bounds on flight rates for no more than one Orbiter loss during the period.
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From page 34... ...
l 1~-~1 Onto - I ACHIEVABLE? / / 111 l / 0.97 0.98 SHUTTLE MISSION SUCCESS RATE 0.99 1.0 0.04 Figure C-1 0.03 0.02 EQUIVALENT MISSION FAILURE RATE The Chances of Losing Zero Orbiters 1988 through 2000 Time Period.
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From page 35... ...
C' ill l LL CC .' _ ~ o o ~ , 1 .~/ , h\~\: cD&RF DESIRED Fin 1 1 1 ~ 1 0.97 0.98 SHUTTLE MISSION SUCCESS RATE 0.99 ACHIEVABLE? 1.0 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 EQUIVALENT MISSION FAILURE RATE Figure C-2 The Chances of Losing No More than One Orbiter 1988 through 2000 Time Period.
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From page 36... ...
. Given NASA's vigorous efforts at improved safety, this failure rate might be cut by a factor of 4; reducing it by a factor of 10 to a reliability of 0.99b is most unlikely in a short time or for costs less than the development cost to date (based on aircraft development experience)
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From page 37... ...
(The Challenger solid rocket problem will take somewhat longer but past ELV experience suggests that this is an exception.) Such schedule disruption can be accommodated through increased satellite design life of more than 5 years, as well as spares on orbit; planetary and space station programs clearly have more difficulty accommodating delays.
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From page 38... ...
The panel also notes the continuing trend toward the formation of a Shuttle Operations Organization, which could be an important factor in achieving confidence in any shuttle manifest. A serious limitation to a reliable manifest is the maintenance of an industrial base to support the spares and replacement needs of the shuttle fleet.
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