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3 Post-Challenger Assessment of Space Shuttle Flight
Pages 7-14

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From page 7...
... from the KSC* under the following conditions: o o o no Orbiter is lost or rendered inoperable, sufficient logistic support is available to meet the scheduled manifest with reasonable confidence, and structural or other system problems requiring substantial, recurring downtime do not occur.
From page 8...
... For a 4-Orbiter fleet the surge rate may reach 15 flights per year, with stringent operational limitations such as reasonably standard payloads and relatively short mission durations. The most critical assumption in estimating flight rates is that no Orbiter will be lost or become inoperable for a significant time.
From page 9...
... the repeated late addition of payloads to the manifest at the expense of maintaining schedules, and (3) the nature of the shuttle processing contract and the possible need for clearer contractor responsibilities vis-a-vis NASA in quality assurance, spares planning and acquisition, and design change demands on shuLtl component designers and manufacturers for reliability and reduced turnaround costs.
From page 10...
... It is important to note here that, as presently designed, the NASA Space Station alone could require 8-10 shuttle flights per year for deployment and support in the middle l990s . Commercial Satellites The commercial satellite situation is confused by existing contractual commitments for launch by NASA.
From page 11...
... The panel believes that the assumption of availability is open to question. The economic viability of commercial launch suppliers may not be decided for many years because of the long transition period from total shuttle dependence to some combination of foreign and speculative domestic suppliers.
From page 12...
... As stated in the the first assessment, the panel believes that a sustained flight rate of 8-10 per year for a 3-Orbiter inventory and 11-13 for 4 Orbiters can be maintained only under the conditions previously noted. Support of a Space Station requires a robust shuttle fleet, even were a new Space Station design to reduce launch requirements.
From page 13...
... Perhaps surprisingly' the total launch costs are relatively independent of the particular mix between shuttles, Titan IVs, MLVs and Titan IIs (for example) for a given total weight to orbit in equivalent shuttle loads (Appendix E)


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