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Tracking and Predicting the Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Releases Implications for Homeland Security (2003) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix E: Ensemble Simulations with Coupled Atmospheric Dynamic and Dispersion Models: Illustrating Uncertainties in Dosage Simulations
Pages 80-84

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From page 80...
... Here, the dispersion model was used with the ensemble mean fields from the individual atmospheric dynamic model runs, including the variability in the individual wind fields, to generate dosage probabilities. These are compared with the explicit dosage probabilities derived from the individual runs of the coupled modeling system.
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From page 81...
... The simpler approach employed the "slab model," in which ground temperature is calculated for a single soil layer and there is no explicit representation of vegetation effects. The more complex approach used a fairly complete land-surface model (LSM)
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From page 82...
... The number of puffs is determined internally by the model, and it depends on such factors as the release characteristics, the size of the domain, the numerical resolution choices, and the meteorology. Second, the turbulent diffusion parameterization used in SCIPUFF is based on second-order closure theories, providing a direct relationship between measurable velocity statistics and the turbulent dispersion rates.
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From page 83...
... The ensemble of dosage simulations makes it possible to calculate plots of the probability of dosages exceeding certain thresholds. Plate 7 is an isoprobability diagram for dosages exceeding 10- kit s my.
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From page 84...
... 2001. Ensemble simulations with coupled atmospheric dynamic and dispersion models: Illustrating uncertainties in dosage simulations.
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Key Terms

  • dispersion model
  • dynamic model
  • boundary layer
  • dosage simulations
  • coupled atmospheric

  • ensemble simulations
  • probabilistic lagrangian
  • global analysis
  • illustrating uncertainties
  • lagrangian puff

  • puff dispersion
  • ensemble study
  • dosage probabilities
  • model physics
  • predict dosage

  • model runs
  • parameterizations surface
  • calculated dosage
  • study objective
  • dosage probability

  • velocity statistics
  • widened rapidly
  • atmospheric research
  • oas release
  • shallow nocturnal

  • generate dosage
  • surface physics
  • movement prevailed
  • kinetic energy
  • lowest model


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