Tracking and Predicting the Atmospheric Dispersion of Hazardous Material Releases Implications for Homeland Security (2003) / Chapter Skim
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Executive Summary
Executive Summary
Pages 1-7
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Existing capabilities generally are useful, but emergency responders have a number of observational and modeling needs that are not well satisfied by existing services. Although it may never be possible to provide a "perfect" atmospheric dispersion prediction for any individual hazardous release, the committee believes that with more effective application of available tools and development of new technologies and capabilities, the atmospheric science community could play a larger role in addressing this critical national security concern.
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A single federal point of contact should be established (such as a 1-X00 phone number) that could be used to connect emergency responders across the country to appropriate dispersion modeling centers for immediate assistance.
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It is not practical to verify dispersion and transport models for every area with comprehensive field programs, but for an appropriate range of meteorological conditions, physical modeling in a wind tunnel could assist in dispersion model evaluation and threat assessment. In addition, field programs conducted for other purposes, such as improvement of weather forecasting or understanding boundary layer turbulence also can be useful.
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The committee's review of selected existing dispersion modeling systems determined that no one system had all the features that the committee deemed critical: confidence estimates for the predicted dosages, accommodation of urban and complex topography, short execution time urban models for the response phase, and accurate though slower models for the preparedness and recovery phases. Better integration between existing and future modeling systems could supply all of these critical features.
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Priorities for improving modeling capabilities include the following: · New dispersion modeling constructs need to be further explored and possibly adapted for operational use in urban settings. This includes advanced, short execution time models, slower but more accurate computational fluid dynamics and large-eddy simulation models, and models with adaptive grids.
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· Urban building and topography three-dimensional databases need to be developed and maintained for use in numerical and wind-tunnel dispersion simulations. MANAGEMENT AND COORDINATION NEEDS There is a wide array of federal agencies that operate dispersion modeling systems, including the Department of Commerce-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Defense, Department of Energy, Environmental Protection Agency, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Nuclear Regulatory Commission, along with numerous academic and private sector research groups that contribute to these federal efforts.
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These observational and modeling tools could have multiple applications, which would help justify costs and ensure that the systems are frequently used, maintained, evaluated, and quality controlled. There is a wealth of knowledge about meteorological and dispersion models residing in universities, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices, and private sector facilities throughout the nation.
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