Estimating Eligibility and Participation for the WIC Program Final Report (2003) / Chapter Skim
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3. Accuracy and Sources of Errors
3. Accuracy and Sources of Errors
Pages 34-41
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From page 34... ...
The chapter goes on to identify potential sources of error. ACCURACY OF THE USDA METHODOLOGY In preparing a budget request for the WIC program, USDA employs the most current survey data from the March Current Population Survey (CPS)
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From page 35... ...
To assess the level of prediction error in the estimates the error resulting from the use of currently available data to predicti~ture eligibility and participation Table 3-1 compares the estimated number of participants by category with actual administrative counts of participants. This ratio was computed using data from 1992-2000.
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From page 36... ...
. To take the forecasting component of the estimation process into account, the estimated number of participants in year t are compared with the actual number of participants from administrative records from year t + 4 for each eligibility category and overall categories (labeled forecasted ratio)
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From page 37... ...
The forecasted ratios assume that estimates of participation are used to predict the actual level of participants four years into the future. Based on the forecasted ratios for total numbers of participants, it appears that the current USDA method of estimating the number of participants for a future budget cycle is quite accurate.
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From page 38... ...
Errors Causing Systematic Biases Errors may arise because data or methods used to make the estimates are not able to fully capture all the programmatic features or the realities of individuals' economic and family situations, leading to inaccurate estimates of eligibility and participation. For example, the March CPS, the data set used currently to make eligibility estimates, collects annual income instead of monthly income.
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From page 39... ...
Changes in program rules, including WIC, but also in other meanstested programs for which adjunctive eligibility is granted. Medicaid rule changes in recent years are a primary example.
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From page 40... ...
In considering current and alternative approaches to estimating eligibility and participation for WIC, the panel has attempted to address these r two sources or errors. EVALUATING CURRENT AND ALTERNATIVE METHODS FOR E S T I M A T I N G E L I G I B I L I T Y A N D P A R T I C I P A T I O N In this report we evaluate methods currently used to estimate eligibility and participation for WIC and examine alternatives to current methods.
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From page 41... ...
However, the numbers of participating infants and breastEeeding postpartum women are seriously underestimated, while the numbers of participating children and pregnant women are overestimated. The chapter also explains the two types of errors the panel investigated in its review of the current methodology errors that cause systematic bias and prediction errors.
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