Air Quality and Stationary Source Emission Control (1975) / Chapter Skim
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13 Analysis of Alternative Emissions Control Strategies
13 Analysis of Alternative Emissions Control Strategies
Pages 540-714
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From page 540... ...
The method of approach to be used in thi s section i s easily adapted to other sources and other regions of the country. The Clean Air Amendments of 1970 required that by July 1, 1975 specified levels of ambient al r quality f or sulfur oxides must be met .
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From page 541... ...
Tall Stag and : intermittent control syste - s facilitate compliance with sulfur dioxide ambient standards, but they do not reduce the total amount of sulfur oxides relea sed into the atmosphere. The commercial feasibility of stack scabbing deices, the other Liable option for reducing sulfur oxide emissions, has been a matter of sharp dispute between the utility industry and He Environmental Protection Agency {EPA)
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From page 542... ...
Ambient concentrations of -sulfated particles in urban areas have not decreased but have remained almost constant from ~ 9 57 to 197 O This persistence of high urban sulfate levels despite the decline in urban sulfur oxide emissions may be the result of the increased emissions from remotely located electric power plants.
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From page 543... ...
For the above reasons, and tenth full recognition of the large uncertainties which still remain to be resolved, this analyst s of the social costs of sulfur oxides and particulate pollution will focus on the impact of control strategies for particulate sulfate concentrations in air. The uncertainties in this approach are not only associated with the effects of sulfates on health and the ecosystem, but with the measured and predicted concentrations of sulfate in air; analytical methods to determine particulate sulfates in are not yet reliable.
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From page 544... ...
Shifting to Low Sulfur Coal.
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From page 545... ...
Both capital cost and operation costs of flue gas desulfurizatzon are high, but it is the most effective means of repouring sulfur oxides and other pollutants from the emissions into the atmosphere (see Chapter 11~. Demand Modification Since sulf or oxides and other pollutant emissions from power plants are a by-product of electricity generation, Ace alternative for reducing these emissions is to reduce demand graph for electric power.
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From page 546... ...
factors (see Chapter 8~. Nuclear power plants provide an economical means of producing base load power without emitting any sulfur oxides or particulates.
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From page 547... ...
If changing a factor within it range of uncertainty will change the preferred decision alternative, it will be useful to quantify the uncertainty by assessing a probability distribution over the range of values the uncertain factor could assume. The value of resolving the uncertainty can then be computed from the decision context (see Board 1966, 1968; North 1968, End Tribus 1969 on the use of probability in decision analysis; see Spetzler and Steel van Holstein 1972 on methods to encode probability distributions}.
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From page 548... ...
The use of economic incentives has been advocated by virtually every econosust who has written on pollution, but it has rarely been used as a way of controlling emissions. It has the advantage of flexibility: by delegating the social cost of the pollution as a direct cost to the private party nuking the decision, the public authority provides him with the incentive to make decisions that are optimal from the viewpoint of the public authority.
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From page 549... ...
The decision problem-on emissions control is ultimately whether the Assay be . owners- of a power plant shall modify their Used on operations by such means as installing a flue may be gas desulfurization (END} process, switching to e society a low sulfur content fuel, or installing a taller stack and intermittent control system.
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From page 550... ...
Ideally, a detailed model for assessing costs and benefits should be developed at each power plant for which a decision on emissions control is to be made. This scale of ef fort is not possible in the present study.
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From page 551... ...
~ The approach in carrying out the costbenefit analysis will be to evaluate alternative strategies for representative power plants in ea ch category by assessing the economic costs of electricity generation and the costs associated with sulfur oxide pollution effects. Because of the suspected hazards of sulfate, the emphasis wi 11 be on regional eff eats caused by long range pollutant transport, rather than local viol rations of air quality standards in the immediate vicinity of the plant.
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From page 553... ...
9 percent sulfur and the same heating value. The supply of low sulfur coal is limited, and a large shift from high sulfur to low sulfur coals f or power plant fuel would result in an increase in thei r relative prices.
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From page 554... ...
For example, if health effects from ambient sulfate were significant only above a thresho' d level, then the polluti on cost per pound of sulfur emitted would drop substantially once ambient sulfate levels are reduced below this threshold level. I`ikewise, increased use of low sulfur coal to reduce power plant sulfur oxide emissions will cause the price premium over high sulfur coal to rise.
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From page 555... ...
of sulfur fives imeducing the cost of assess each pound the total e cost all carry r Plant, lathe Relative a~ Hem :~Is for `~tits: t~}r~ni t~ ~ ., . - ~hboi.
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From page 556... ...
A iudas~ent that the low sulfur coal alternative Is better than the high sulfur coal alternative Is equivalent to a i~iqDent that the social cost of sulfur emissions are judged to exceed 19 cots Her }2~ Of sulfur e~}tt~ for this is the equivalent increase in the mice of electricity that must be accented in turn for the lifer emission levels. Similarly, a judgment to use 3 percent sulfur coal in this plant instead of the more expensive ~ be .
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From page 557... ...
~ ., . ~~`n<:rease in ill accepted ~sulfur expensive j l 1 1 low sulfur coal implies a judgment that the social cost of sulfur emissions is less than 19 cents per pound of sulfur emitted; the reduction in Isis signs from a switch to low sulfur coal is judged nob north the increased electricity generation COSt:Se If the dollar value of the consequences of sulfur emissions could bed accurately assessed, it would be a simple matter to carry out this type calculation to determine what: emissions control alternative is best in the sense of providing a kilcMatt-hour of electricity at the least total cost to societye.
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From page 558... ...
Now that the Methodology }^s" been described, we turn our attention to the calculation of the electricity generatiOn) costs and emissions levels for representative plants, which will be summarized in a series of diagrams constructed .
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From page 559... ...
559 as ~ .
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From page 560... ...
Conventional techniques nap available will reduce the sulfur content of high sulfur coal by approximately 40 percent' a. Flue gas desulfurization, represented by the line scrubbing process,iis expensive: there is a sizeable capital cost, additional operating costs, a less of plant capacity, and an associated energy loss.
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From page 561... ...
561 |, r, plants are dditional uclear ~nt, da-0 ,- included: ~ , ..
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From page 562... ...
562 o · V onto sat U]
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From page 563... ...
563 to UP Cal ~ ;; Ad - - V]
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From page 564... ...
564 woo NdE~SEM Linens Mom v ~ .
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From page 565... ...
Inspection of the f igures show that for pollution costs below 19 cents per pound of sulfur emitted the best alternative is to burn high sulfur coal. As pollution costs are increased above 19 cents per pound of sulfur emitted the best alternative becomes eastern low sulfur coal.
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From page 566... ...
Oxide Pollution Cost tPer unit of emission) ;, FIGURE 13-3: - Total Social Cost Versus Pollution Cost, Existing Coal Fired Plant (Nonurban)
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From page 567... ...
FIGURE 13-4: Total Social Cost Versus Pollution Cost, New Coal Fired Plant (Nonurban)
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From page 568... ...
568 x O `,, 1 it_ 4M~/~I!
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From page 569... ...
For these sites the use of low sulfur coal or other wi be inaica ea. scrubbing technologies l i available only i i~ F~r 9t etPa pr-ce 1~—i~t in plants~b sulfur eastern coal will be shifted up to where su fur coa, coa ies a ve high of o u i prepare ion, and FGD for all values p cost.
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From page 570... ...
For plants located in mideastern as opposed to east coast locations, western low sulfur coal may be a competitive alternative if it is available at a cost somewhat lower than as assured in Table 13~4e Retrof it installations of flue gas desulfuriz ation systems on oil burning plants in urban areas may involve higher costs for sludge di sposal. If low sulfur coal is available, the pollution cost justifying lime scrubbing instead of low sulf ur eastern coal is 59 cents per pound of sulfur removed.
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From page 571... ...
ues of pollution oration becomes existing plant e scrubbing is r coal if the Cur emitted is Cf coal alternative to ma of sulfur at Id is 27 cents. Be value is tents per pound will be the ence of ~-1.
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From page 572... ...
57 cents increase in the crossover point for a 1 cent per Bullion BTU change In the price dif ferential of low sulfur coal over high sulfur coal. THE RELATION B=WE" SULFUR OXIDE EIdISSTONS FROM A STHGLE ~ Pi AND AMBIE~ T=~=ES TN Sly DIOXIDE AND SULFATE Lid The relationship between the emissions of sulfur oxide and ambient levels of sulfur dioxide and sulfate is not well understood at present (see Part Two, Section 11.
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From page 573... ...
1 975a} . however, recent neasure~nts of a power plant plume from a coal fired plant with an efficient electrostatic: precipitation system {99.5 percent by weight particulate removal} indicate a ~ ower rate, below 5 percent - cumulative oxidation during the period {about two hours} for which the ply could be observed before sulfate levels were- too close to background for accurate measurement (Newman 1 g7Sb, .
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From page 574... ...
In the absence of available quantitative relationships between sulfur oxide emissions and ambient sulfate levels, we have developed a hi ghly simpli stic model for the emis signs to ambient relationships I The details of this model are given in Appendix 1 3-A.
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From page 575... ...
We make the following assumptions about the chemical reactions of the sulfur oxides. sulfur dioxide to sulfate oxidation takes place according to a first order rate reaction.
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From page 577... ...
..O en : o a A' a a ·~' 4?
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From page 578... ...
(7) All sulfur oxides emitted from Me power plant are emitted as sulfur dioxide rather than as sulf ates .
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From page 579... ...
than location 1 to coal. s inputs to the O kilometers, he plume is layer above f sulfur : 0.
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From page 580... ...
~ ° i~ The dominant effect of the oxidation rates ~ u, °;~` . ~ in determining the ambient sulfate concentration ~ ~ At shows up strongly in Table ·3-10: Depending on ~ .°~ 3 ~ whether we use high or low values, we get about ~ = an __ghtf o_ change in the contribution to ambient sulfate levels from the power plant.
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From page 581... ...
.lculations for 'irst, let us He power plant Lions encounter .tan area 480 after 24 hours. Lion rate cent per hour.
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From page 582... ...
'1 ', ,( :I: ~ o Do 1 ~ ~ ~ ~ o v in m c~ t¢ H ED U]
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From page 583... ...
E _ Urban Air 0.75 .9 O 0.50 ~ o ._ . _ FIGURE 13-8: Incremental Contributions to Ambient of SO2 and Sulfate from he Emissions of a Single Power Plant, Representative Calculation for 600 MW plant 300 Upwind of Urban Area : ,.
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From page 587... ...
A sketch of the resulting probability distribution on ambient sulfate levels is given in- Figures 13-9 and 13-10. These curves are fine ant to illustrate the great uncertainty on the incremental change in ambient sulfate levels resulting from the emissions frown a power plant lo cat ea upwind from an urban area in Rich there are substantial health and material property values at risk.
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From page 589... ...
~~ ' 0~ ~ S - J ~ day 0 Q O S-l p Al .
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From page 590... ...
as a basis for assessing the social cost per pound of sulfur emitted. The framework for this calculation is easily adapted to improved models relating power plant emissions to observed ambient sulfate levels, where such improved model s are developed.
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From page 591... ...
A look at the surface wind maps of Figures 13-11 and 13-12 indicates the direction of the wind, and Figure 13-13 shows us the location of the population concentrations. The implication of these maps is grim: The sulfur oxides emitted by these rural power plants tend to blow into the populous urban Northeast corridor.
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From page 592... ...
~ :: .` it r: ~ 1 ~ .~ In 0: to ·rl a I'd I~t ' \~ ' ~ ~ ~ .~ i,; ~ , .
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From page 593... ...
.\ FIGURE 13-12: Normal Surface Wind Directions in ', ..
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From page 595... ...
We shall assume that during the year the variations in wind direction cause the sulfur oxide to be distributed over a sector of 45°, three times the 15° sector we assumed for the power plant plume. This will reduce average annual sulfate {and 'sulfur dioxide} ambient increments to one third the values shown in Table 13-9.
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From page 596... ...
eg ~ JO Al m ~ fir Q
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From page 597... ...
increase in urban sulfates from a doubling of sulfur oxide emissions would be less. An overall est~na;*
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From page 598... ...
The calculated values for SOx levels for the urban location case are summarized in Table 1 3-11 . ESTI MAT ED HEALTH COSTS OF ELEVATED AMBIENT LEVELS OF SULFUR OXIDES A comprehensive evaluation of a pollution reduction strategy must compare the dollar costs of implementing that strategy with the health and other costs sacrificed by not implementing it.
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From page 599... ...
and ~nortaall, .ertake. ary and in the ly sessment of oussions n in our iOd will he health d with illustration t~ is needed for the evaluation of pollution reduction strategies, {3} an application of that model which will indicate the sensitivity of health ef fects to changes in the level of sulfate pollution, and {4} "a method for converting specific health effects to aggregated health costs for society.: The Relationship Between Adverse Health Effects and Ambient Levels of Sulfur Oxides In order to chore logically among sulfur oxide pollution redaction strategies we need to have some understanding of the dose response relationship between adverse health effects and ambient levels of sulfur oxides.
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From page 600... ...
A description and assessment of studies linking various adverse health effects with sulfur oxide po lluti on appears in Chapter 4. Short term exposures to elevated levels of sulfur oxides, especially acid-sulfate aerosols, seem to aggravate asthma arch pre-exist~ng heart and lung disorders.
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From page 601... ...
Epideoliological studies appear, in generals to indicate that repeated short tens peak exposures or annual average elevations of suspended sulfates accompany excess acute lower respiratory disease in children, excess risk for chronic respiratory disease symptoms in adults, and decreased ventilators faction in children. me Salt Lake Basin studies of the CHESS program indicated.
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From page 602... ...
increase the risk for chronic respiratory disease in adults. These effects were observed in community studies where levels of sulfur dioxide, acid sulfate aerosols, and suspended particulate matter were usually but not always simultaneously elevated.
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From page 603... ...
Health Ef feats of Suspended Sulfates in the New York Metropolitan Area Once dose-response curves have been agreed upon, they slay be combined with expected frequency distributions of suspended sulfate . ~~ concentrations to obtain an estimation of the health effects expected from an increase in the current ambient levels of i suspended sulfates.
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From page 604... ...
: EXCESS LOWER RESPIRATORY DISEASE Up to 10 YEARS 13 7.69 IN CHILDREN .; ,., ~ .'~''~ ' 'I EXCESS RISK .
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From page 605... ...
This information, in turn, should help us to evaluate the health impacts of various emission reduction alternatives. For increased daily mortality, aggravation from heart and lung disease, and asthmatic attacks, which are affected by daily levels of suspended sulfates, the expected effect of-1 ugly increase in sulfate levels may be estimated by calculating the expected number oz cases of each health effect under current ambient concentrations and under current ambient levels pl us 1 _g,~3 sulfate concentration.
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From page 606... ...
Since annual average concentrations may differ from 16 ug~m3, depending upon exact location, the calculations were al so performed assuming annual average concentrations of 12.5 and 20 ugly. The last column of Table 13- ~ 3 gives the expected number of additional cases resulting from a 1ug~m3 annual average sulfate concentration increase.
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From page 607... ...
607 lren and ts are more levels and so lad Erectly nse curves. -he percent - of observed cases .ate concen~ns are annual average ,~,m3 ~ ~ calculations al average Id.
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From page 610... ...
ESTIMATION OF PER CASE HEALTH COSTS One Premature Death One Day Aggravation From Heart and Lung Disease Symptoms One Asthma Attack One Case Child' s Lower Respiratory Disease cue Case Chronic Respiratory Disease = $30 ~ 000 = $20 = $10 = $75 = $250 Ideally, these values should be assigned so as to reflect what society would (or should} just be willing to pay in dollars to prevent the losses sustained when a typical individual suffers one of the possible health effects (see Lave and Sesk~n 197 0 ~ . We bel isle that medical cost and lost productivity should not be the only basis for assessing these values, as was done in their paper}.
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From page 611... ...
1973, NAS 1974: volume 4) , then our nominal health costs are equivalent to the f allowing as Bes sment of EDRA's: one day aggravation from heart and lung disease = 2 - 20 EDRA's one asthma attack = 1 - lo EDRA's one case child's lower respiratory disease = 7.5 - 75 EDRA's one case chronic respiratory disease = 25 - 250 EDRA's mese ranges compare well with the estimations of Jacoby et al.
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From page 612... ...
per year Lower Respiratory Disease in Children (thousands of cases per year) Chronic Respiratory Disease (thousands of cases, point prevalence)
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From page 613... ...
We see from the sensitivity results that health costs c,, a 1ug,~3 increase in ambient sulfate are most sensitive to {in order of magnitude} the estimated health cost per case of chronic respiratory disease, the health cost per day of aggravation from heart and lung disease sympto~ns, the number of additional cases of chronic respiratory disease, and the additional number of days of aggravation from heart and lung disease symptoms.
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From page 614... ...
high: 81.2 thous./yr. Cost per premature death low: S3,000 high: $120,000 Cost per day aggravation from heart and lying disease 1QW: $2 high: $80 Cost per astluna attack low: $1 high: $40 Cost per case child's lower respiratory disease low: S7.50 high: S300 Cost per case chronic respiratory disease low: $25 high: S1000 .~ ., ~ Al ,., ILL ·~ ~ .
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From page 615... ...
- .. i:, A_ I; ~1 ~ ~~.d ~ : me indication from the sensitivity analysis is that the most critical quantities in the assessment of the total health cost of a 1 ugly increase in suspended sulfate concentration are the number of additional cases of chronic respiratory disease, and the number of additional person-days of aggravated heart-lung disease symptoms22.
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From page 616... ...
Using the nominal values of S250 per case of chronic respiratory disease and $2 0 per person day of aggravated heart-lung disease symptoms and the uncertainty on the dose-response relationship for these two health effects as characterized above, we can compute a probability distribution on the total health cost for a ~ ugly increase in average annual ambient sulfate concentration. As has been the case~previously, the calculation is done for an average ambient sulfate level of 16 ugly and a population at risk of 11.5 Nonillion persons.
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From page 617... ...
. 250 per case of 10 per person Use symptoms Response effects as e a Total health Rage annual has been the .s done for an 6 ug~me and a i persons.
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From page 618... ...
als ~ pa ints, and fibers, which account for most of Me es timated damage, is not entirely clear. Rat es of deterioration appear to be functions of sulf ate accumulation implying that there is no ambient sulfate level below which no eff eat will occur Z 5.
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From page 619... ...
summing past - material e may be some ible that some tale have not ye Model sulfur oxide fiber, it does not Judge between tegies. What we tidy of !
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From page 620... ...
The numbers of Table 13-17 must be regarded as extremely crude estimates. A review of the information on material property damage by a member of the committee suggests that Waddell's estimate for material property damage caused by sulfur oxides Night be low by a factor of four or five (see Appendix 1 3-E} .
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From page 621... ...
sage is x 600 = S83 range in in ambient Or the renin Table ..or~nation we Cage is ent by ' must be IS . aterial ommittee material aes might be Appendix ease in reseed in of then aJor public reduction t as odc)
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From page 622... ...
8 billion as th e annual national cost of aesthetic and soiling effects, of which 50 percent is allocated to sulfur oxides and 50 percent is allocated to particulates (Waddell ~ ~ 974 ] , Table 13-21~.
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From page 623... ...
ACID RAIN: EFFECTS ON SOILS, FORESTS, AND FISH=IES Acid rain resulting from sulfur oxide and nitrogen oxide emissions is now widespread over Northern Europe and the northeastern United States. (See further discussion in Chapter 7.
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From page 624... ...
Sen sitivity analysis w ill indicate that the costs ascribed to aesthetics and acid rain have little effect on the overall result for the total pollution cost per pound of sulfur emitted. EVALUATION OF SULFUR OXIDE POLLUTION COSTS FOR THE REPRESENTATIVE CASES We shall now summarize our assessment of the costs associated with sulfur oxide emissions from the types of plants we have taken as representative, and compare these to generating costs and emission quantities to identif y the best strategy.
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From page 625... ...
~ le`; ~ ~ ;: _~dg : the ', of a - As,, - and of Sulfur emissiol itSo 1raerSgOlve this uncertainty in the context of decisions among the alternative strategies f or sulf ~ oxide emissions control on power plants. Remotely Located Plant I..
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From page 627... ...
The reduction in sulfur pollution costs achieved by switching to a low sulfur coal slightly more than offset the higher fuel price for this fuel. The increase needy before flue gas desulfurization becomes the best alternative .
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From page 628... ...
21¢ 40.9¢ 36.94 Cost per premature death increased 23.54 to $200,000 (nominal value = $30,000) All health costs increased by a factor of four 61.14 All health costs decreased by a: factor of ten ~ Incidence of chronic respiratory disease per gym of SO4 increased by a factor of two ~ Incidence of Chronic respiratory disease per vg/m- of SO4-decreased by a factor of ten .
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From page 629... ...
..... d Rain costs increased by a factor of four Oxidation Rates assumed doubled to 18 per hour in rural air and 10% per hour in urban air Low Oxidation rates 0.1%.per hour in rural air and 1.0% per hour in urban air Oxidation rate constant at 2% per hour 30.9¢ 25.5¢ 33.2¢ 9.5¢ 39.40 6.30 P ~ 1 '~_ 1 .
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From page 630... ...
Looking at the total social cost calculations for Figure 13-5, we see that this value lies well above the crossover point of 19 cents at which low sulf ur coal is preferred to the alternative of burning high sulfur coal, and well below the crossover point of $1. 00 per pound of sulfur where flue gas desulfurization becomes the least cost alternative.
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From page 631... ...
The tow sulfur .ternative for tither burning .furizatzon rmation to id become the TABLE 13-20 Cost of Sulfur Oxide Emissions Representative Calculation for Urban Plant Emitting 10,000 kg of SOx per hour (96.5 x 106 pounds of sulfur per year) Costs computed base' on 1.86pg/m3 increase in sulfate and 7.5ng/m increase in sulfur dioxide concentrations in metropolitan areas with population of 11.5 million.
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From page 632... ...
Cost-per premature death increased to $200,000 (nominal = $30,000) All health costs increased by a factor of four All health costs decreased by a factor of ten not ence 3f chr nic respirato per pa/m of ry isease factor of twOSO4 increased by a not ence f chronic respirat f~,atar of tfnsO4 decreased byY disease Dose response for aggravated heart-lun~ disease symptoms increased by a factor of two Dose response for all health effects Increased by a factor of two Dose response for all health effects decreased by a factor of ten Materials damage increased by a factor Materials damage decreased by a facto' 55¢ 113.8¢ 102.0¢ 62.4¢ 174¢ 19.3¢ 74.6¢ 37.
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From page 633... ...
93.1¢ I Oxidation rate decreased to one fifth nominal value (e.g., 1%/hour) 20.6¢ 102.0¢ ~ Oxidation rate assumed 2% 29.5¢ 62.4¢ 174¢ 19.3¢ 74.6¢ .
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From page 634... ...
~-in Oratory disease and increase in average ambient sulfate diOxiednetrtatifn. and the oxidation UNCERTAINTY ON POLLUTION COSTS AND THE VALUE OF RESOLVING THIS CERTAINTY Ogle An overall probability distribution on Figure 33-15 for thP renpdref 3Utfur is given in ..
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From page 635... ...
foal.
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From page 636... ...
The probability that the cost would be above 3 7 cents is 5 percent and above 53 cents, of the order of one percent. We can similarly read from Figure 1 3-16 the corresponding values f or the probability that the pollution cost will be above 59 cents, the crossover pant for flue gas desulf urination, case where sludge could not be ponded sludge disposal about 19 percent.
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From page 637... ...
presentative a as sketches formation. lity ~bient 10)
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From page 638... ...
The Figures 13-17, 13-18, and 13-19 are copies of Figures 13-3, 13-4, and 13-5, sowing Me total social cost per kilowatt hour for the representative plant as a function of the cost per pound of sulfur emitted. We show the probability distribution on pollution cost platted as a probability density function.
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From page 639... ...
are wing I the ost The furious ler ity ad. of we can h to olving Value ~ ^11 It !
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From page 641... ...
641 l t l t em.
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From page 642... ...
For the urban plant the decision is very close between low sulfur coal and flue gas desulfurization. With sludge disposal cost at 0.
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From page 643... ...
order of 3 percent sulfur in the Northeastern region of the United States. Tn addition there are about 60~000 EM of new coal plants planned or Her construction, and the order of 20~000 HW; of oil fired plants that aught :be converted; to coal.
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From page 644... ...
{Coal; preparation and use of western low sulfur coal were found in ~ese calculations to be somewhat inferior in sulfur removal for the additional cost, but it should be cautioned that for some power plant situations cane of these alternatives could be preferred.) The values of pollution cost corresponding to the crossover points between high sulfur coal, low sulfur coal if available, and flue gas~a~lf~tion are shown in the first section, and bell we notarize the change in the crossover p"0 per increment of additional Cost in the ab~te~nt alternatives.
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From page 645... ...
Crossov r values of pollution cost (cents per pound of sulfur) at which alternative strategy changes: Switch from high Switch to FGD sulfur to eastern with low- without low sulfur coal sulfur,coal low sulfur available coal avail- ' new plant (rural)
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From page 646... ...
Bigh Sulfur Coal: A Poor Alternative for the Urban Representative Case The results f or the urban case analysis indicate that burning high sulfur coal in a plant close. upwind of a major Metropolitan area is a poor strategy relative to low sulfur eastern coal or flue gas desulfurization.
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From page 647... ...
If ye values -- for chronic respiratory disease of $2 50 per case and S20 per day for aggravated heart-lung disease symptoms are increased a factor of four, the range of pollution costs is shifted up to where flue gas desulfurizat' on i appears desirable for both the urban and rural case. If further information confines oxidation ~ ;:' ad; i' ' ~'i', —'A ~ .~ ~ ; ' 'I ' ~ ~ go: ~ ~ ~ ~ :t, ~ '!
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From page 648... ...
the possibility of Are serious health effects such as cancer or emphysema, climatic changes induced by sulfates, or catastrophic effects on living systems from high levels of acid rain. These areas should receive substantial res earch attention, and information on these areas should be included in subsequent analysis on sulfur oxide emissions control strategy.- Information that suflates contra bute substantially to serious respiratory disease could motivate a strategy of very high emissions reduction wherever possibly since the cost of Additional land permitting a scrubber to be added at a later time is low, perhaps in the range of a few thousand dollars ~ _ i' 4 .
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From page 649... ...
we believe that art iepormut use far the type of Ethnology 11-1~strated;in thta-section is to determine where limited resources (such as flue gas desulfurization construction capacity, available low sulfur coals can-do the most- to alleviate pollution: damage in the-near term. Lois approach may be most }~elpful-~in- setting priorities among.types of plants regionally or among several plants in one locality, and ~t could be extended to case by case analysis of a number of power plants in a large region.
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From page 650... ...
While further investigation of a catalyst control approach appears warranted, the best approach for reducing sulf ate level s appears to be reduction of the quantity of sulfur oxide emitted into the atmosphere. We shall not i ncl ude a catalyst control alternative among the strategies considered in the analyst s.
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From page 651... ...
The availability of such Coal is very limited at present, but may increase as western coal resources are developed 7 Only sulfur oxides are - being counted here in the assessment of pollution costs. This restriction is not necessary from a methodological point of ~rzew, rater- it is made to increase the clarity :-of the presentation.
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From page 652... ...
the levels obtainable with particulate removal technologies alone, and switching to low sulfur coal might actually increase fine particulate emissions from a power plant unless particulate removal technologies are carefully optimized for the new coal. Sane credit for - lowering fine particulate emissions should be given to FGD relative to the low sulfur coal alternative.
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From page 653... ...
that d either by t control, or by one of the alternative strategies being considered in this analysis for reducing sulfur oxide emissions. Although benefits from eit~ninating violatians~ of the primary sulfur dioxide standards might be significant in some cases,-we are not including them in the analysis.
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From page 654... ...
! 20 .,~ ; A.5 transport of sulfur oxides include Zeedi jk and Welds ( 1973} and Rodhe ( 19721 .
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From page 655... ...
Sensitivity analysis indicates how the pollution cost, and hence the alternative strategy having the lowest social cost, will change depending on the value judgments used. Although the values used in this analysis are subjective, they are not inconsistent with some crude measures of individuals' willingness to pay to alleviate suffering, as for example, assessed by Jacoby and Steinbrenner (197 3} .
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From page 656... ...
Our analy sis ignores thi s ef f ect ~ possibly causing us to underestimate marginal material damage costs. More accurate dose-respon se information ought to be appl fed in the analy si s as it becomes available.
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From page 660... ...
. No new sulfur oxide enters this volume element after it leaves the power plant, and sulfur dioxide and sulfate are assumed to be removed only through dry deposition at given deposition velocities.
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From page 661... ...
We go through a similar reasoning process to arrive at a solution four the sulfate concentration. If oxidation of one gram of SO2 produces k grams of sulfate ion, then the quantity of sulfate Z(t)
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From page 662... ...
The quantity lost from the volume element per unit time is the dry deposition velocity (v ~ times the lower surface of the volume element, the area in contact with the ground, times the concentration of sulfate in the volume element. The area of contact with the ground is (as before)
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From page 663... ...
(4) me dry deposition velocity for SO to the ground is 0.8cm/sec, giving2a loss rate a of 2.88 per cent per hour with a mixing lacer height of 1000 meters.
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From page 664... ...
(7} We neglect the 1-2 percent of sulfur oxide emitted initially as sulfate and consider that~all of the 104 kilograms per hour of sulfur dioxide is emitted as SQ2. This assumption is of course easily relaxed, but since the initial sulfate is small compared.to the sulfate formed subsequently by the oxidation, we may neglect it in the calculation without introducing a significant error.
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From page 665... ...
Distance from ' nt of sulfur oxide . planting 6,0 120 240 360 480 1000 fate andirons ~ ' ' ~ 4 kilograms Increase in SO2 ~ de-is emitted , concentration ' is of course ~ (Vg/m3)
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From page 666... ...
28.6 12.9 10.2 Increase in SO4 concentration (~/m3) ' 1 8 160 8.3 0.66 0.62 1.32 1.78 Location rural edge of of plume air city area 9 180 6.8 2.1 metropolitan Oxidation Rate % per hour 0.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 i pld L ..~ Oxt Raid ~ ; I
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From page 667... ...
. in a Remote , 120 km from , 9 180 j 6.8 ; l 667 Incremental Contributions to Ambient Levels of SO2 and-$ulfate From a power Plant in a Remote Location (104 kg/hour SO2 emissions, 240 km from plant to!
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From page 668... ...
13-A4 668 Incremental Contributions to Ambient Levels of SO2 and Sulfate from a Power Plant in a Remote Location (104 kg/hour SO2 emissions, 1000 km from plant to city)
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From page 669... ...
~ i'.: ~ ,: .: ~ ~ Fiji ',~ '.~ i ~ /';: : i'. ' ~.~ ~ ~ ;'' 4'~ Ideally, the analysis of alternative emission control strategies should be carried out for each individual power plant, but such an effort was obviously not possible for the present study.
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From page 670... ...
TABLE App .
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From page 671... ...
co" Colts of ~11 :- Cam Ceaaclt' (S)
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From page 672... ...
TABLE App. 13-B1 (cont.
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From page 673... ...
673 1 h~nual Heat Operatln. Coata, ~ - .
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From page 676... ...
en m At; ~l'1~' a)
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From page 677... ...
to to to ~ er ~ A ~1# :O O ~ ~ O .O ~ 1 O ~ A)
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From page 679... ...
679 I_ I_ , ~ ~ ~ ~ Us I_ I_ I ·1 ~ ~ ' ~ ~ ~ _ ~ 1 In' ~ ~ ~ — ~ ~ 1 o ~ ° ~ o CO o US US ~ ~ t~~ '- C' o ~ t~ ~ ~ ~ ~ o ~ ~ o Cal o o o lo- m 11-!
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From page 680... ...
.j i 680 0 v ·~ :0 =^ CQ ~ I a I H HI ·rl V C)
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From page 681... ...
# ·^ so pi c-)
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From page 683... ...
683 rat 0 An 0 or ~ at ~I' ° ~ t1-~ ~ tr} off ~ ~ ~ ~ O rat 0 us co 0 ~ or ~ o ~ ~ O Q "l O Pa ~ 3 4)
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From page 684... ...
~ Q ·,1 .q at c 1 Q m O 0D ~ 00 ommm fir .
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From page 685... ...
ok r ~o or ; .
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From page 686... ...
APPENDIX 13-C TABLE APP.13-C1 NATIONAL AIR SURVEILLANCE NETWORKS URBAN SULFATE OBSERVATIONS ANNUAL AVERAGE SULFATE CONCENTRATION, ~g/m3 Year Stat~on 1969 1970 Bridgeport,Conn. 11.9 11.6 Hartford,Conn.
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From page 687... ...
Niagara Falls, N
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From page 689... ...
NASN URBAN SITES ANNUAL AVERAGE SULFATE CONCENTRATION ng/m3 .
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From page 690... ...
The calculations assume the use of coal of approximately 3 percent sulfur and a plant of moderate size, approximately 600 MA. Fixed charges, including amortization, ~~~ of 17.percent on invested capital are assumed for new investment, and fixed charges on existing plant capacity are computed at 14 percent.
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From page 691... ...
t capital cost: $500/kw x 0.17 . 7000 hours fuel cost: heat rate of 8,982 x $1/MM BTU of fuel other operating costs: Cost of power generation without scrubber if, Added cost of lime scrubbing process: capital cost: $100/kw x 0.17 .
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From page 692... ...
TABLE App. 13-D2 692 New Plant: Sensitivity Calculations on Added Cost from Scrubber Low case: $60/kw; 0.15 mills/kwh for sludge disposal 5% energy loss and capacity aerating Added cost of scrubber, low case: High case: $130/kw; 1.0 mills/kwh for sludge disposal 7% energy loss and capacity aerating Added cost of scrubber, high case: .
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From page 693... ...
energy loss, 6% of plant output needed for scrubber operation capacity aerating of 6% trieplacemen-t at $500/kw, 17% fixed charge) Subtotal added cost of lime scrubbing process Cost of power generation with scrubber: 3.5 mills/kwh 0.6 0.5 4.6 mills/kwh 0.7 0.8 -.5 6.1 mills/kwh 23.3-mills/kwh ._ ~
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From page 694... ...
Subtotal added cost of lame scrubbing process Cost of power generation with scrubber: 5.8 m~lls/kwh 0.3 10.3 1.0 17.5 mills/kwh 3.5 mills/kwh - .1 0.6 0.9 4.9 mills/kwh 0.7 0.8 i.5 6.4 mills/kwh 23.9 mills/kwh
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From page 695... ...
-90-91, 128-130} estimated that the total damage caused by sulfur oxides to material property in 1970 was about $600 million (with a possible range of $400-800 million}. This estimate was based primarily on studies by Gillette {1973)
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From page 696... ...
However, the Swedish study yielded estimates of damage to painted steels substantially larger than those~der~ved by Gillette -- about $25 per capita annually in Sweden, of which roughly 10 percent was attributable to sulfur oxides (Bolin et al. 1971: Tables 4.7 and 7.4', versus Gillette's estimate of $0.88 per capita for the U.S.
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From page 697... ...
Apart from soiling.and staining, most particulate matter would not be expected to damage paint,except insofar-as it retains materials such as acid sulfates -- and nitric acid and thereby helps to maintain their contact with painted surfaces. Waddell's final- estimate of $100 million for the total amount of damage caused by sulfur oxides to painted-surfaces corresponds to costs of~no more than $0.80 per capita per year, even if all the damage is supposed to occur in the northeastern states.
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From page 698... ...
so that accelerated deterioation of paint or metalplated trim contributes disproportionally to depreciation. The number of motor vehicles in the area most exposed to sulfur oxides and acid rain (the northeastern U.S.
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From page 699... ...
Unless a method can be devised to finance the restoration.and preservation of these historic and cultural objects, increased emissions of sulfur oxides are likely to speed their deterioration. Their loss should be regraded as a major intangible cost of sulfur oxide emissions, to be weighed in conjunction with the more tangible costs and benefits.
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From page 700... ...
The adverse effects of sulfur oxides on human health- are expected to fall primarily on residents of urban areas in the northeast, where the highest ambient concentrations of both sulfur dioxide and suspended sulfates are found {Chapters 1-4, 61. Similarly, the costs imposed by damage to materials are believed to fall primarily on property owners , .
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From page 701... ...
Chapters 6 and 7 show that sulfur oxides emitted in the east-central and midwestern states.,contribute significantly to airborne sulfate particulates and acid rennin the northeas,te,rn states. A special case of this Regional distribution problem is the likely impact of U.S.
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From page 702... ...
Under an emission control strategy (low sulfur fuels and/or flue gas desulfurization) the increase in total exposure to sulfur oxides and sulfates would be limited, and ultimatly reversed if the policy were sufficiently widely implemented.
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From page 703... ...
. ~ ~ ~ _ _ ~ — ^nopt~o.n of an emission control strategy would relieve existing uxban-rural.
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From page 704... ...
Hayes (1974} Aggravation of Asthma by Air Pollutants: 1971 Salt Lake Basin Studies. Health Consequences of Ai r Pollution: A Report from the CHESS Program, 1970 - 1971.
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From page 705... ...
and D.~: Bbuse (1974a) Prevalence of Chronic Respiratory Disease Symptoms in Adults: 1971-1972 Sur~ey of Two Southeastern United States Coa~unities.
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From page 706... ...
Creason, and K.E. McClain (1974} Prevalence of Chronic Respiratory Disease Symptoms in Adults: 1970 Survey of Rocky Mountain Communities, Health Consequences of Air Pollution: A Report from the chess Program, 1970-1971.
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From page 707... ...
Ramsey (1974) Prospective Surveys of Acute Respiratory Disease in Volunteer Families: 1970-1971 New York studies, Health Consequences Of air Pollution A Report from the CHESS Program, 1970-1971.
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From page 708... ...
Swanson {1974} Frequency of Acute Lower Respiratory Disease in children: Retrospective survey of Salt Lake Basin communities: 1967-1970, Health consequences of Air Pollution: A Report from the CHESS Program, 1970-1971.
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From page 709... ...
~ .. 709 from a Coal Fited Power Plant.
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From page 710... ...
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (1974} 650~-74-004, ORD, NERC,RTP, N.C., Health Consequences of Sulfur Oxides: A Report from CHESS 1970-1971, RTP, N.C., Nay.
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From page 711... ...
,:: ~ 1 ~ ~ en.\,, ~ 1 ~ ~ - .'`L ~ ~ ~ ~ Aim: U.S. Federal Power Commission (1974c)
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From page 713... ...
PART THREE CONTROL OF NITROGEN OXIDES FROM STATIONARY SOURCES l 1 Part Three was prepared under the direction of the Commission on Natural Resources of the National Research Council. The discussions of nitrogen oxide sources in Chapter 14 and of tall stacks and intermittent control for nitrogen oxides in Chapter 15 are based on analyses by John Spengler, Anthony Cortese, and Douglas Dockery of the Harvard School of Public Health.
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Key Terms
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More
information on Chapter Skim is available.