Transmission Pipelines and Land Use A Risk-Informed Approach -- Special Report 281 (2004) / Chapter Skim
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D Risk Assessment Techniques in the Pipeline Industry
D Risk Assessment Techniques in the Pipeline Industry
Pages 104-114
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From page 104... ...
Pipeline companies also began to use various risk assessment techniques, including hazard and operability (HAZOP) analysis, fault tree analysis, scenario-based analysis, and indexing methods.
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From page 105... ...
. CURRENT APPROACH TO RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE PIPELINE INDUSTRY Risk assessment is the process of identifying, describing, and analyzing risk with the following elements: · Recognition or identification of a hazard or potential adverse event, perhaps with definition of accident scenarios in which the hazards are realized or experienced; · Analysis of the mechanisms by which an event can occur and the mechanisms by which the event can create loss; · Analysis of the consequences of an adverse event as a function of various factors of design or circumstance; and · Estimation of the likelihood of the sequences of events that lead to the consequences.
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From page 106... ...
The likelihood of occurrence of an adverse event can be estimated with a variety of methods, ranging from prior experience with the frequency of occurrence, perhaps using statistical data of similar events, to computations based on mathematical models. Likelihood can also be determined by examining the probability of the adverse event occurring in a Bayesian sense, a prior perception of probability.
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From page 107... ...
SCENARIO-BASED RISK ASSESSMENT This category of risk assessment includes a number of methods: HAZOP studies, scenario-based fault tree/event tree analysis, and so forth. These techniques are useful for examining specific situations, and often they are used with other techniques.
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From page 108... ...
. INDEX MODELS Index models use customized algorithms to conduct pipeline risk assessment.
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From page 109... ...
Muhlbauer's Risk Assessment Methodology Muhlbauer (1996, x) believes that "data on pipeline failures are still insufficient to perform a thorough risk assessment using purely statistical concepts" and that an assessment using probabilistic theory is not required because the probabilities used in the assessment are of questionable benefit.
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From page 110... ...
C-FER Technologies developed a model that examines isometric thermal radiation distances to determine a burn radius and a 1 percent fatality radius from a natural gas pipeline break. An assumption of this model is that risk can be expressed as the product of failure probability and failure consequences, and reliability is the complement of failure probability.
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From page 111... ...
C-FER calculates the degree of harm to people due to thermal radiation by using a model that relates the potential for burn injury or fatality to the thermal load received. A 30-second exposure time is assumed for people exposed to the fire in the open.
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From page 112... ...
By using the approach in C-FER's report, it would be possible to calculate hazard area distances for a variety of hazard scenarios involving more hardened structures and different accident scenarios. PipeView Risk PipeView Risk is a pipeline risk assessment program that assists pipeline operators in evaluating the current condition of their pipelines and identifying sections of higher risk in order to prioritize maintenance programs (Kiefner & Associates and M
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From page 113... ...
The ISAT project was begun at the Gas Research Institute in the mid-1990s. SUMMARY A number of risk assessment methods are being used by the pipeline industry to prioritize risk mitigation actions.
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From page 114... ...
1999. Lessons Learned in Pipeline Risk Assessment.
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