Transmission Pipelines and Land Use A Risk-Informed Approach -- Special Report 281 (2004) / Chapter Skim
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3 Approach for Risk-Informed Guidance in Land Use Planning
3 Approach for Risk-Informed Guidance in Land Use Planning
Pages 51-65
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From page 51... ...
; some of these strategies might be used to identify risk management and mitigation strategies for pipelines. In this chapter some basic issues associated with addressing pipeline safety in terms of risk are considered.
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From page 52... ...
BACKGROUND An appropriately designed risk analysis could be used to aid decision makers at all levels in making choices related to pipelines (e.g., siting, burial depth, pipeline diameter, pressurization, easements, land use) and in establishing policies and guidelines to make such choices.
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From page 53... ...
, data are missing, and the reporting thresholds may result in an inaccurate depiction of the types of transmission pipeline releases and their effects. Although the national data are incomplete, they are sufficient to begin the risk assessment process and develop risk estimates.
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From page 54... ...
The committee believes that such a risk assessment needs to be conducted at the national level. The issue is national in scope, with most transmission pipelines traversing multiple states.
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In particular, there is no guarantee that a very low-probability event will not occur tomorrow. In practice, ideal performance is often not achieved because of the difficulty in creating the input probabilities (of initiating events)
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The major internal events include generation of defects due to corrosion/erosion and fatigue due to fluctuating pressure or temperature conditions. A separate category of potential external events recently has come to the forefront as a result of international terrorism.
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A similar approach was developed by the National Fire Protection Association [NFPA 59A: Standard for the Production, Storage, and Handling of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)
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Determine appropriate risk management (ensure meeting goals with high enough probability) Fear factor Politically untenable limit Private benefit/loss limit Net private Public benefit/ benefits loss limit Net public benefits FIGURE 3-2 Structuring a decision.
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Similarly, from an initial scoping study for various pipelines and scenarios, one could try to define a limit on the fear factor that would be considered prohibitive. The problems encountered in seeking permission to transport spent nuclear fuel to a geologic repository demonstrate the relevance of this factor in a political setting in which such decisions are made.
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Again, all this requires sound technical work and a deliberate, consultative process with ample input from representative stakeholders, as discussed below in the section on risk communication. PROBABILITY AND UNCERTAINTY The role of logic and probability theory mentioned above is in decomposing complex, hard-to-characterize events into simpler events, to the degree deemed appropriate.
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From page 61... ...
The availability of an easy-to-apply means for making decisions, in a manner that allows flexibility in accepting the level of risk deemed appropriate in a particular case, would be beneficial. This is possible if the decision process is structured in a risk framework as outlined above.
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From page 62... ...
Furthermore, the process should be open to updates and refinements as needed. Properly conducted, such an effort naturally leads to an optimal mix of prevention and mitigation measures, and this mix may be different for each class of pipelines (see Figure 3-5)
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From page 63... ...
Example of Guidance The technical guidance the committee envisions might take the form of recommended practices that would allow state and local governments to select a setback, building code specification, or other mitigation strategy that could be applied to manage development and activities near a transmission pipeline. The choices would be based on the communities' decisions about an appropriate level of risk and an acceptable cost burden for both the pipeline companies and the communities.
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From page 64... ...
Risk information would allow public officials to make informed decisions about how to mediate between pipeline companies and the public, and it would allow the public to participate and feel comfortable in accepting such decisions. How this information is communicated will affect siting of new pipelines, planning for capacity expansion, development of property next to pipelines, precautions during excavation near pipelines, real estate values and assessments, and public acceptance of pipelines.
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From page 65... ...
The committee suggests that now is an appropriate time to pursue such an approach. It suggests that the methodology should involve the following principal components, as well as a tight interaction and integration between them: · A high-quality risk assessment, conducted at the national level, that acknowledges the various classes of pipelines and respective classes of risk profiles in a manner that encompasses the variety of conditions that exist in the field; · Reduction and generalization of these results into simple and easy-to use decision-guiding tools with regard to risk levels associated with various extents of setbacks, rights-of-way, and procedures involved in maintenance, inspections, and mitigation in emergencies; · A management plan for implementation that renders help to local communities according to need and builds on the experience gained from use of the approach in the field; · A management plan for long-term communication of risk and inter play of perceptions among all stakeholders, especially pipeline opera tors, local officials, and the public; and · A management plan for integrating all the preceding components and refining them on a continuing basis by using actual experience, both in implementation and in the safety records obtained.
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