Economic Models of Colorectal Cancer Screening in Average-Risk Adults Workshop Summary (2005) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix N Preliminary Results from CDC's Estimate of the National Capacity for Colorectal Cancer Screening and Follow-Up--Laura C. Seeff, M.D.
Appendix N Preliminary Results from CDC's Estimate of the National Capacity for Colorectal Cancer Screening and Follow-Up--Laura C. Seeff, M.D.
Pages 232-240
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SLIDE 1 SLIDE 1 NOTES: In this presentation, I will briefly show preliminary results of CDC's capacity assessment. I will touch on the methods and results of the study listed above.
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We then designed a forecasting model to estimate the unmet need for a lower endoscopy. Finally, we compared the two to make our capacity assessment.
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"Current resources refers" to personnel, though in other parts of the survey we asked about equipment.
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The results are also scaled up from the weekly assessments to annual estimates assuming a 50-week working year. Respondents indicated that in a year, about 3 million flexible sigmoidoscopies are being done, and 15.5 million colonoscopies are being done.
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We used NHIS data to determine which of those individuals would already have been screened, which eliminates 28.2 individuals. Thus, almost 42 million people ages 50 and older have not been screened according to current screening guidelines.
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First, we examined how capacity would compare with unmet screening need if the unscreened population were to follow current screening patterns. We assume that those 42 million people would be screened in the same proportions as is currently observed through the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS)
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238 ECONOMIC MODELS OF COLORECTAL CANCER SCREENING SLIDE 7 SLIDE 7 NOTES: Here are the results under each of the options. These results do not include surveillance colonoscopies that would be called for as part of an appropriate screening regimen.
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However, under option 1, we would have enough colonoscopy capacity to screen all individuals immediately. If we were to try to offer colonoscopy to the entire unscreened population (option 3)
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REFERENCES Seeff LC, Nadel MR, Klabunde CN, Thompson T, Shapiro JA, Vernon SW, Coates RJ.
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