Improving the Scientific Foundation for Atmosphere-Land-Ocean Simulations Report of a Workshop (2005) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix C The Gap Between Simulation and Understanding in Climate Modeling
Appendix C The Gap Between Simulation and Understanding in Climate Modeling
Pages 56-62
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From page 56... ...
But increasing computational power also raises issues as to how we would like to see climate modeling and the study of climate dynamics evolve in the 21st century. One of the key issues we will need to address is the widening gap between simulation and understanding.
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From page 57... ...
A handful of major modeling centers around the world compete in creating the most convincing climate simulations and the most reliable forecasts of climate change, while large observational efforts are mounted with the stated goal of improving these comprehensive models. Due to the great practical value of simulations, and the opportunities provided by the continuing increases in computational power, the importance of understanding is occasionally questioned.
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From page 58... ...
And yet, despite the extra burden of trying to create a consensus as to what the appropriate climate model hierarchies are, the construction of such hierarchies must, I believe, be a central goal of climate theory in the 21st century. There are no alternatives if we want to understand the climate system and our comprehensive climate models.
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From page 59... ...
To the extent that a modification to the model based on these ideas helps ameliorate a significant model deficiency, even if it is, serendipitously, a different deficiency than the one providing the original motivation, it is accepted into the model. Generated by these informed random walks, and being evaluated with different criteria of merit, the comprehensive climate models developed by various groups around the world evolve along distinct paths.
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From page 60... ...
Alternatively, one can construct more idealized models designed to capture the essence of the interaction in simpler systems, within which the climate dynamics community can focus more directly on the central issues. These idealized studies can then suggest optimal ways of categorizing or analyzing more comprehensive models.
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From page 61... ...
When global nonhydrostatic atmospheric models resolving deep moist convection become common in future decades, the global warming simulations obtained with the current generation of models will be of historical interest only. But the importance of the problem is such that we cannot wait for this to occur; we need to do our best now, knowing full well that these efforts will be obsolete within most of our lifetimes.
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From page 62... ...
It must, on the one hand, make contact with the high-end simulations and improve the comprehensive model development process; otherwise it is irrelevant to that process, and, therefore, to all of the important applications built on our ability to simulate. On the other hand, it must proceed more systematically towards the creation of a hierarchy of lasting value, providing a solid framework within which our understanding of the climate system, and that of future generations, is embedded.
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