Naval Analytical Capabilities Improving Capabilities-Based Planning (2005) / Chapter Skim
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2 Key Elements of Capabilities-Based Planning and Analysis
2 Key Elements of Capabilities-Based Planning and Analysis
Pages 21-29
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From page 21... ...
is planning, under uncertainty, to provide capabilities suitable for a wide range of modern-day challenges and circumstances while working within an economic framework that necessitates choice."1 While individual interpretations vary, capabilities-based planning (CBP) is substantially different from recent Department of Defense (DOD)
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From page 22... ...
The idea is to move away from the legacy approach, by which myriad organizations in isolation drill down on a very narrow set of scenarios with nontransparent assumptions, often for the purpose of platform or program advocacy -- thus presenting top-level leadership with the problem of reconciling different results and recommendations. The goal of CBP is to harness the power of an organization to identify and analyze broad choices, provide sharp-edged implications, make clear the key assumptions and fragility of those judgments, and meaningfully express risk in the context of an unknowable future.
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From page 23... ...
tant) , rather than addressing various risk implications of potential solutions across a wide range of possible circumstances.
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From page 24... ...
In the DOD, the proper role of the Services and agencies is not to drive demand, but to provide innovative, competitive solutions to address leadership priorities and objectives -- and, as noted above, to inform changes in leadership priorities as appropriate. In principle, the Secretary of Defense should provide broad strategic planning guidance sufficiently early in the biennial planning/programming/budgeting cycle to help frame the construction of a set of capabilities that would balance or distribute risk consistent with his objectives and priorities.
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From page 25... ...
To deal with uncertainty, the capabilities-based planning methodology calls for using multiple, fundamentally different scenarios3 and examining myriad cases within each scenario -- a technique referred to as parametric exploration.4 One of the many reasons for considering a wide range of circumstances and assumptions is that the baseline assumptions used in planning are often an ex 3In the transformation efforts of the DOD, significant emphasis has been placed on needing analysis to support four different types of threats: irregular, catastrophic, disruptive, and traditional. The examples of capabilities-based planning in this report tend to emphasize broadening the range of scenarios and assumptions, although they may not cover the full spectrum envisioned by some leaders of DOD transformation efforts.
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From page 26... ...
Force-on-force modeling rewarded incremental, "cost-effective" improvements in range, lethality, probability of kill, and force structure. Today, adversaries are choosing strategies that do not play to our strengths and that may not even be countered effectively by conventional tactics and forces (as reflected in the increased use of special forces and the importance of international police cooperation in counterterrorism)
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From page 27... ...
The challenge is to synthesize results from detailed analyses and extensive parametric exploration into viable trade-off options and insightful implications for resource-allocation decision makers. This process involves extensive, postmodel analytic processing -- a relative rarity in deadline-driven analytic shops today.
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From page 28... ...
-- Can the defense program be substantially changed in time to meet an unexpected need? · Current versus future risk -- Is our current and near-term investment crowding out critical science and technology investments needed to address more advanced future threats?
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From page 29... ...
As discussed above, the organization should be providing continuous feedback to the leadership on whether the initially stated risk-tolerance levels need to be slightly or even radically changed to be achievable. In summation, the key elements and criteria associated with the capabilitiesbased approach of confronting uncertainty, expressing risk in meaningful terms, exploring a wide range of possible solutions, and supporting leadership decision making are shown in Figure 2.3.
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Key Terms
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