Prospective Evaluation of Applied Energy Research and Development at DOE (Phase Two) (2007) / Chapter Skim
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Appendix L Report of the Panel on DOE's Light-Duty Vehicle Hybrid Technology R&D Program
Appendix L Report of the Panel on DOE's Light-Duty Vehicle Hybrid Technology R&D Program
Pages 187-207
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From page 187... ...
Both meetings included open, will also depend on the future market penetration of lightinformation-gathering sessions attended by DOE headquar- duty hybrid vehicles, which is likely to be affected by factors ters staff and contractors. The DOE representatives briefed such as oil prices, emissions regulations, and fuel economy the panel on light-duty vehicle R&D programs within the standards.
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From page 188... ...
cost. The panel identified this last factor as particularly imThe FCVT budget for R&D related to passenger vehicles portant, because the biggest challenge to market acceptability covers work on energy storage (high power energy storage, of hybrid vehicles is likely to be the incremental vehicle cost advanced battery development, and exploratory technology of achieving adequate vehicle performance, safety, and duraresearch)
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From page 189... ...
In addition Adequate vehicle performance is essential for market to the energy storage requirements, technical challenges acceptance of hybrid vehicles. The performance of wellinclude cost, durability (number of charge cycles before engineered hybrids is generally considered acceptable and performance deteriorates)
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From page 190... ...
. smaller components can be used across a broad range of vehicle applications, not just in light-duty or hybrid vehicles, the panel believes it is more likely to lead to success and Technical Risk reflected this opinion in its assignment of probabilities on Clearly, to achieve a 50 percent weight reduction of the the decision tree branch with DOE funding.
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From page 191... ...
This is done using advanced assembly sys- Finally, the panel notes that weight reduction will be an tems and technologies that have been refined for application important enabler for the market success of hybrid vehicles. to a steel body.
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From page 192... ...
Since LTC has seen only limited applicability advancements that can also be applied to more conventional under relatively low engine load conditions where combusvehicles and future generations of hybrid vehicles (see also tion stability can be maintained, the need for transition to NRC, 2005b)
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From page 193... ...
New done on advanced combustion, emissions control, and fuels facilities would be needed to produce alternative fuels such will produce advancements that can also be applied to the as alcohols or biodiesel. power trains of conventional light-duty vehicles and produce All of these potential changes would involve added insignificant fuel consumption savings in parallel with the vestment by the fuels industry and would increase the cost planned application to hybrid vehicle platforms.
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From page 194... ...
els of technical success were used to characterize this uncer • Low success is making incremental improvements over tainty except that "low success" was defined as a 30 percent current levels of battery performance and costs (10 percent incremental improvement over current performance. incremental improvement in 2010)
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From page 195... ...
This is an Lightweighting Technical Success: Weight reduction Relative cost of DOE achievable based on lighter-weight Funding? R&D completed in 2012 vehicles 2% cost increase 50% lighter than 21%, 22%, 22% 1997 vehicles 10% cost increase 36%, 35%, 35% 0%, 4%, 2% More than 10% increase 43%, 43%, 43% 2% cost increase 25% lighter than 39%, 40%, 40% Yes 10% cost increase 1997 vehicles 41%, 49%, 40% 54%, 53%, 53% More than 10% increase 7%, 7%, 7% 2% cost increase 10% lighter than 70%, 72%, 71% 1997 vehicles 10% cost increase 30%, 28%, 29% 59%, 48%, 58% More than 10% increase 0%, 0%, 0% 2% cost increase 50% lighter than 19%, 20%, 20% 10% cost increase 1997 vehicles 0%, 3%, 1% 35%, 34%, 34% More than 10% increase 47%, 47%, 47% 2% cost increase 25% lighter than 33%, 35%, 34% No 1997 vehicles 10% cost increase 38%, 45%, 37% 52%, 51%, 51% More than 10% increase 15%, 14%, 15% 2% cost increase 10% lighter than 66%, 68%, 67% 1997 vehicles 10% cost increase 63%, 52%, 62% 33%, 31%, 32% More than 10% increase 1%, 1%, 1% FIGURE L-2 Decision tree representing the panel's evaluation of the lightweighting research program.
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From page 196... ...
both with and without the DOE research program, under each Each of the three technology areas evaluated -- highof the three global scenarios. power energy storage, automotive lightweight materials, and
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From page 197... ...
(%) Advanced combustion n/a 45 1 1.25 45 3 1.22 42 1 1.15 42 3 1.12 Batteries and energy storage n/a n/a n/a 1.3 Automotive lightweighting 25 n/a n/a 1.12 10 n/a n/a 1.05 NOTE: n/a, not applicable.
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From page 198... ...
industry are unlikely to be viable in the long term, however, To estimate the incremental costs of lighter, more efficient and alternatives to hybrids for similar fuel savings -- such as conventional vehicles, the panel used the incremental costs more fuel-efficient conventional engines -- are under develdefined as part of the assessment of technical success for opment and may be preferred if the price of hybrid vehicles automotive lightweighting: a 2 percent increase, a 10 percent does not drop sufficiently. increase, and an increase of >10 percent.
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From page 199... ...
Overall, the trees specify 145 different possible for oil. 100% 90% Fraction of HEV or conventional vehicles 80% 70% 60% Conventional vehicles, High HEV 50% Conventional vehicles, Low HEV HEVs, High HEV 40% HEVs, Low HEV 30% 20% 10% 0% 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 Year FIGURE L-4 Fraction of new vehicles purchased that are conventional and hybrid electric, for two HEV market scenarios.
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From page 200... ...
For an estimate by year of the total carbon emissions from auexample, Figure L-6 shows the expected value (the prob- tomobiles for each case, and the expected environmental ability-weighted average) of consumer expenditures for benefit of DOE's program is the difference in the expected vehicles and fuel in the Low HEV market scenario assum- value of total emissions with and without the program.
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From page 201... ...
When DOE estimates the potential fuel economy benefits FiNdiNGs of its light-duty hybrid vehicles R&D efforts, it assumes that the program's very ambitious performance and cost Benefits of doe's light-duty hybrid Vehicle r&d goals will be met by the relevant target date(s)
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From page 202... ...
In the Low HEV market In the Low HEV market In the Low HEV market condition: condition: condition: $5.9 billion at 3% $27.5 billion at 3% $7.3 billion at 3% $3.7 billion at 7% $15.7 billion at 7% $4.7 billion at 7% In the High HEV market In the High HEV market In the High HEV market condition: condition: condition: $7.2 billion at 3% $28.2 billion at 3% $8.5 billion at 3% $4.2 billion at 7% $15.9 billion at 7% $5 billion at 7% Environmental Environmental benefits are calculated as the reduction in total carbon emissions from benefits vehicles from 2006 to 2050 that can be attributed to the DOE program. Difference between Low HEV and High HEV market conditions is less than 2%; only one value is shown.
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From page 203... ...
Finding 3: Important fuel economy benefits could accrue methodology used by the Panel to assess Prospective even if DOE's R&D on light-duty hybrid vehicles fails to Benefits achieve its ambitious cost and performance goals. Finding 5: The prospective benefits assessment methodol Advances in the three areas of DOE's hybrid vehicle R&D ogy used by the panel to assess DOE's light-duty hybrid program examined by the panel -- electric hybrid technology, vehicle R&D offers value for managing this and similar lightweight materials, and combustion and fuels -- could re- research programs and for reviewing progress.
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From page 204... ...
, Chair, is Charles Stark Draper decision trees used for technical and market risks provide Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics at the Massachua framework for structured conversation between program setts Institute of Technology and head of the Department of managers and their reviewers. This framework highlights ar Aeronautics and Astronautics.
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From page 205... ...
He served director of the PNGV program, he led government-industry as a member of the NRC Panel on the Benefits of Fuel Cell research and development teams pursuing advanced vehicle R&D of the Committee on Prospective Benefits of DOE's construction, power trains, fuel cells, batteries, and power Energy Efficiency and Fossil Energy R&D Programs (Phase electronics. In his other positions he also led leading-edge One)
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From page 206... ...
Based on these assumptions, the model produces sory board to the College of Engineering and Computer Sci- estimates, by year, of the total vehicle miles driven, the averence, Oakland University, Rochester, Michigan. He served age fuel economy of vehicles on the road, the total gasoline as a member of the NRC Committee on Review of DOE's consumed, and the total carbon emissions.
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From page 207... ...
Whichever vehicle has the lower discounted total cost is assumed to capture the entire market for CVs in that year. estimating the Benefit of the doe r&d Program As described above, the panel's discussion and assesscalculating Fuel usage, Fuel expenditures, incremental ment of the technical risks associated with DOE's R&D Vehicle cost, and carbon emissions for a Given set of activities resulted in the identification of 145 "cases," or difVehicle characteristics ferent possible outcomes for fuel economy and incremental Based on the market assumptions (total vehicles sold, vehicle cost for new CVs and HEVs.
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