Metropolitan Travel Forecasting Current Practice and Future Direction -- Special Report 288 (2007) / Chapter Skim
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3 Institutional Framework for Travel Demand Modeling
3 Institutional Framework for Travel Demand Modeling
Pages 35-45
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From page 35... ...
Through time, these responsibilities have devolved to the states, MPOs, and the private sector. Following is a discussion of how the federal government, the STAs, and the MPOs work together to accomplish metropolitan travel forecasting.
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From page 36... ...
The most significant advances have been in computer technology and such software enhancements as improved graphical displays and geographic information systems. The federal government has not become a disinterested bystander with respect to metropolitan travel forecasting, however.
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From page 37... ...
In addition, applicants must use the FTA reporting tool Summit with the results of their travel forecasting model to calculate user benefits. Summit also imposes a rigor in quality control of travel forecasts by producing summary tables and color-coded maps that easily identify anomalies in travel patterns that highlight erroneous or illogical results in the travel forecasts.
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From page 38... ...
FHWA takes the lead for the Travel Model Improvement Program (TMIP) , which comprises a number of activities designed to support metropolitan travel forecasting, including development of the TRANSIMS advanced model suite.
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From page 39... ...
To explore how STAs and MPOs work together in carrying out these responsibilities, the committee surveyed the 50 states at the outset of this study, in 2004. All 50 states, representing all 384 of the current MPOs, responded.
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From page 40... ...
These states had direct control over the travel forecasting process. For the three categories of MPO by population size, the STAs and MPOs worked together in model development and forecasting as follows: • Population 50,000 to 200,000: Under federal regulations, urban areas with populations of more than 50,000 must have a metropolitan transporta tion planning process that meets all legislative and regulatory requirements.
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From page 41... ...
Another study identified 16 states in which STAs organize statewide MPO model user groups that meet regularly and provide such services as staff training, technology transfer, and pooled purchase of software licenses (FHWA 2007)
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From page 42... ...
MPO develops models and makes forecasts without state technical assistance 8% State develops models and makes forecasts 27% MPO develops models; state provides technical assistance 55% State develops models; MPO makes forecasts 10% FIGURE 3-3 MPOs with population 200,000 to 1 million. MPO develops models and makes forecasts without state technical assistance 9% State develops MPO develops models and makes models; state forecasts provides 9% technical assistance 77% State develops models; MPO makes forecasts 5% FIGURE 3-4 MPOs with population exceeding 1 million.
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From page 43... ...
SUMMARY FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The federal government, STAs, and MPOs have historically shared responsibilities for developing travel demand models and making metropolitan travel forecasts. Initially, federal agencies took the lead in developing travel forecasting methods and software and were able to devote substantial staff and financial resources to these efforts.
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From page 44... ...
Statewide models have the potential to provide valu able information for metropolitan modeling practice. In the future, statewide and metropolitan travel models may share common networks and zone sys tems and a common goal of seamless forecasting of the impacts of freight, passenger, and land use policies and major capital investments.
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From page 45... ...
These relationships have evolved over time, with the federal government playing a less prominent role. The next chapter presents information on the current state of travel forecasting practice.
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