Disrupting Improvised Explosive Device Terror Campaigns Basic Research Opportunities: A Workshop Report (2008) / Chapter Skim
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2 FINDING THE WEAK LINKS (WORKSHOP 1)
2 FINDING THE WEAK LINKS (WORKSHOP 1)
Pages 16-29
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From page 16... ...
Speakers addressed lessons and perspectives from conflicts in Iraq, Afghanistan, Northern Ireland, Colombia, and Europe. During breakout sessions, participants considered basic research questions related to disruption of personnel, resources, and community support of IED organizations.
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From page 17... ...
Similarly, the existence of marginalized communities of Muslims on the outskirts of large European cities, in addition to being a potential research topic, shows how the environment can affect operational capabilities. During a discussion of the relative merits of qualitative and quantitative data in studying this problem, Bale indicated that his preference is for qualitative, empirical research before quantitative studies.
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From page 18... ...
It is the most important weapon in any campaign against IED organizations. British intelligence and security forces are estimated to have forestalled a great percentage of IED attacks.
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described his study of the drug trade in Colombia. This work is part of a larger comparative study of organizations that also applies competitive adaptation to the study of terrorists and counter-terrorists (Kenney 2006)
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Researchers studying similar organizations should be aware that a failure to consider a group's overall competence could introduce bias into their findings. Kenney was asked whether Drug Enforcement Agency controls on precursor chemicals had affected drug traffickers.
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briefed workshop participants on the current situation in Afghanistan and highlighted some of the Taliban leadership's methods for making the use of IEDs acceptable to the general population. He emphasized the need for a better general understanding of how history, culture, and community structure affect the willingness of a community to accept a given tactic and how cultural values can be exploited in counterinsurgency operations.
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From page 22... ...
The recent decline in the number of successful IED attacks is attributable in part to improved counterinsurgency forces' detection capabilities and in part to changes in attitude in the population. Shellum described five groups that have been responsible for using IEDs in Iraq and the relationships between them.
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From page 23... ...
The final session of the workshop built on the talks and breakout sessions. Participants were invited to provide feedback on overarching themes and critical research subjects highlighted during the workshop.
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From page 24... ...
Research that focuses on the factors that influence individual members of an IED organization, as well as differences between group and individual motivations, could inform the choice of targeting methods. Basic research requires data, and the issue of how to acquire data, such as data on IED organizations and local communities where IEDs are used, provoked much discussion.
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From page 25... ...
Once a disruption has been achieved, modeling and careful study may be required to obtain an accurate measure of its effectiveness in achieving the counterinsurgency's goals. How to Affect Popular Support and Disrupt Supportive Elements of the Environment Participants considered many angles of this broad problem.
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From page 26... ...
For example, the lack of electricity and other basic necessities in Iraq contravened Iraqi expectations of quick improvements after the 2003 invasion; the discrepancy between expectations and the situation on the ground probably increased support for the insurgency. Similarly, a recent publication (The Quest for Viable Peace: International Intervention and Strategies for Conflict Transformation 2005)
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From page 27... ...
Conversely, in an area where there are active military operations, studies can investigate methods of obtaining relevant data by using existing sources. For example, military personnel may be too preoccupied with critical duties to fill in additional forms to contribute to basic research.
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From page 28... ...
A key component of studying network adaptation is the adaptation not just of the adversary but of blue forces (for example, the counterinsurgency forces in the case of an insurgency and the "narcs" in the case of drug smuggling) and green forces (the local population)
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From page 29... ...
There are also practical concerns for blue forces. The development of technologies that could facilitate research and sharing of best practices engagement of blue forces in the human terrain could help to smooth the interactions between them and the local community.
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