Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment - Special Report 293 (2009) / Chapter Skim
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5 Organization of the Aleutian Islands Risk Assessment
5 Organization of the Aleutian Islands Risk Assessment
Pages 96-109
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From page 96... ...
The second section of this chapter describes the committee's recommended approach, which involves close cooperation among a Management Team representing decision makers, an Advisory Panel consisting of stakeholders and interested experts, a Risk Analysis Team made up of one or more contractors, and a Peer Review Panel providing technical review of the risk assessment.
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From page 97... ...
For this reason, the committee recommends that the study be divided into two phases: a Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment and a Phase B Focused Risk Assessment. Assessment and prioritization of potential risk reduction measures would be undertaken by the Advisory Panel and Management Team during and immediately after each phase.
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From page 98... ...
Vessels transiting the North Pacific Great Circle Route between the west coast of the United States and Canada and the Far East constitute the traffic flow of primary public concern, since the largest oil spills in recent years were the result of accidents involving cargo ships on innocent passage through Unimak Pass. However, other vessel types pose risks that should not be ignored in a comprehensive risk assessment.
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From page 99... ...
Therefore, the risk assessment should consider all vessels above 300 GT, which include but are not limited to the following types: • Containerships, • Bulk carriers, • General cargo vessels, • Gas carriers, • Roll-on/roll-off vessels and pure car carriers, • Cruise ships, • Crude oil carriers, • Product tankers, • Tank barges, • Chemical carriers, • Fish processors, • Fishing vessels, • Tugs, and • Government vessels. The study should include vessels currently transiting the region, as well as those that can reasonably be anticipated to do so during the 25-year study period (the study period is discussed below)
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From page 100... ...
. The risk assessment should exclude operational and intentional discharges from ships.
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From page 101... ...
The study period needs to be sufficiently long to provide a basis for life-cycle cost–benefit analysis and to reflect anticipated changes in vessel traffic and vessel types and designs, as well as the impact of known and reasonably expected regulatory changes. ASSESSMENT ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE The committee proposes an organization and management structure for the Aleutian Islands risk assessment consisting of four groups: a Management Team, an Advisory Panel, a Risk Analysis Team, and a Peer Review Panel.
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From page 102... ...
Advisory Panel The idea of the Advisory Panel is to take advantage of experience gained through the Presidential/Congressional Commission on Risk Assessment and Risk Management, the Prince William Sound study, and other collaborative risk assessment efforts discussed in Chapter 2 while avoiding the potential limitations resulting from frequent interactions with stakeholders that can compromise the study team's objectivity. The Advisory Panel would represent a structured stakeholder-participatory approach intended to build trust, clarify the values and goals that should inform the assessment, incorporate local information and knowledge that would otherwise be easily missed, and potentially provide a path to organizational learning and policy change that might not otherwise be available.
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From page 103... ...
Risk Analysis Team The Risk Analysis Team would perform the risk analysis under the direction of the Management Team, be called upon to make presentations to the Management Team and the Advisory Panel, and present the technical basis for its work to the Peer Review Panel. The Risk Analysis Team should consist of one or more contractors with demonstrated expertise in the following: • Maritime transportation and qualitative and quantitative spill risk assessment, including human factors analysis and uncertainty analysis; • Marine traffic analysis and modeling;
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From page 104... ...
It should have collective expertise in all aspects of marine risk assessment. Its role would be to perform a peer review of the approaches, methodologies, models, and algorithms used by the Risk Analysis Team to ensure that assumptions are based on the best available data, that uncertainties have been properly described, that analyses have the appropriate rigor for the level of assessment, that the work is of a consistently high quality, and that findings are properly justified.
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From page 105... ...
Select Members of Peer Review Panel Peer Review Panel Established Draft Report on Phase A Discuss and Draft Risk Matrix 8 Months Traffic and Spill Evaluation Approach Likelihood/Size Review Phase A Review Phase A Review Phase A Traffic and Spill Traffic and Spill Traffic and Spill Likelihood/Size Analysis Likelihood/Size Analysis Likelihood/Size Analysis Provide Comments on Update Draft Report on Draft Phase A Traffic/Spill Phase A Traffic and Spill Report to Contractor Likelihood/Size Meeting of Management Team, Advisory Panel, and Contractor (discuss baseline spill risk report; review risk matrix evaluation approach; discuss scope of Phase A consequence analysis) Specify Scope of Phase A Draft Report on Phase A Consequence Analysis Consequence Analysis Review Phase A Review Phase A Review Phase A Consequence Analysis Consequence Analysis Consequence Analysis Provide Comments on Final Report on Phase A Draft Phase A Consequence Traffic/Spill/Consequence Report to Contractor Studies Qualitative Assessment and Prioritization of Risk Reduction Options Meeting of Management Team, Advisory Panel, and Contractor (establish list of potential risk reduction measures; prioritize list of risk reduction measures)
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From page 106... ...
The risk assessment has four main stages: • Phase A semiquantitative studies, • Phase A qualitative assessment and prioritization of risk reduc tion options, • Phase B Focused Risk Assessment, and • Phase B development and reporting of findings and recommen dations. The estimated times for completion of each stage are approximate and subject to refinement.
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From page 107... ...
The Management Team is responsible for defining the work scope of the Risk Analysis Team. The Management Team, Advisory Panel, and Risk Analysis Team are encouraged and expected to share expertise and knowledge.
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From page 108... ...
Funds remaining at the end of the assessment can be applied to risk reduction measures. Principal expenses for the risk assessment include the following: • Administration and meetings, • Facilitator for the Advisory Panel, • Peer Review Panel, and • Phase A and Phase B analyses by the contractor(s)
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From page 109... ...
1998. Review of the Prince William Sound, Alaska, Risk Assessment Study.
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