Risk of Vessel Accidents and Spills in the Aleutian Islands Designing a Comprehensive Risk Assessment - Special Report 293 (2009) / Chapter Skim
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The present study applies such classic fundamentals of risk assessment to the question of how to minimize vessel accidents and spills in the Aleutian Islands and recommends an appropriate framework for conducting a comprehensive risk assessment for such events. The Aleutian Islands are a 1,200-mile chain of small volcanic islands in the North Pacific stretching westward from the Alaska Peninsula to Russia.
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More than 4,500 large commercial vessels annually now traverse Unimak Pass at the eastern end of the Aleutians -- a number that has steadily risen in recent years and is anticipated to continue to grow with increases in vessel traffic between Asia and North America, including the Arctic as well as the Aleutians Islands. In December 2004, the grounding and breakup of the bulk carrier M/V Selendang Ayu during a severe storm focused public attention on the oil spill risks posed by vessels transiting the Aleutians.
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These recommendations identify a logical sequence of building blocks that can be used to conduct the assessment in discrete steps so that early decisions can be made regarding the most important safety improvements and risk mitigation options can be considered in the order of their priority. STUDY CONTEXT The Aleutian Islands: Resources and Infrastructure Central to the public concern about improving the safety of shipping in the Aleutian Islands are the unique and valuable natural resources in the region that could suffer damage from vessel accidents.
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Vessel Accidents and Spills In the region near Dutch Harbor, large commercial ship traffic is concentrated in and near Unimak Pass, and the local fishing fleet, tugs and barges, ferries, and other small vessels often cross the largeship traffic lanes. Farther out in the Aleutian chain, the traffic is more dispersed, but hazards are always present.
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The committee therefore reviewed the existing infrastructure and safety measures (such as practices on board and in port, regulations, and the use of vessel monitoring and tracking systems) to identify key areas for improvement that should be considered in assessing the risk of vessel accidents and spills in the Aleutian Islands.
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The committee recommends that a structured risk assessment be performed with two major phases -- a Phase A Preliminary Risk Assessment and a Phase B Focused Risk Assessment. This process would include a specific, stepped approach to collecting and categorizing available data; development of a logical sequence of events defining key scenarios; and use of a risk matrix for an initial qualitative evaluation of risk levels.
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Recognizing the importance of stakeholder involvement to the success of the risk assessment, the committee suggests that the Advisory Panel represent all major Aleutian Islands stakeholders, who would provide relevant local knowledge and expertise to the contractors. The panel should review and comment on the framing of the study and its conduct at key stages and help identify and provide input on the risk reduction measures to be evaluated.
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Interim Actions to Enhance the Assessment During its review of existing data, the definition of the problem, and the current state of safety in the system, the committee identified interim actions that would help ensure a successful risk assessment. The committee is aware of the urgency of taking actions to improve the safety of shipping operations in the Aleutian Islands, and early actions that would provide additional data to build a solid risk assessment foundation should also be considered.
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Some of these measures might require IMO consideration, while others might be adopted unilaterally. CONDUCT OF THE RISK ASSESSMENT STUDY Building on the recommendations presented above, the committee has outlined the process and specific steps it believes should be followed to conduct a successful risk assessment for shipping operations in the Aleutian Islands.
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Table S-1 identifies the hazardous substances that need to be addressed, while Figure S-1 illustrates the study region, which includes the entire Aleutian Island chain and encompasses the region traversed by commercial vessels on the North Pacific Great Circle Route. Because the system and the problem are so complex, the committee recommends that the study be conducted in phases -- beginning with qualitative and semiquantitative analyses and assessments, followed by selected detailed quantitative assessments of significant risks and most promising risk reduction measures.
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The process is structured so that a qualitative prioritization of risk reduction measures will be available after the first year, which may allow for earlier implementation of those measures that stand out as particularly effective. In accordance with the court settlement resulting from a commercial vessel accident and large oil spill in 2004, $3 million has been set aside for the overall risk assessment and projects identified by the assessment.
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Select Members of Peer Review Panel Peer Review Panel Established Draft Report on Phase A Discuss and Draft Risk Matrix 8 Months Traffic and Spill Evaluation Approach Likelihood/Size Review Phase A Review Phase A Review Phase A Traffic and Spill Traffic and Spill Traffic and Spill Likelihood/Size Analysis Likelihood/Size Analysis Likelihood/Size Analysis Provide Comments on Update Draft Report on Draft Phase A Traffic/Spill Phase A Traffic and Spill Report to Contractor Likelihood/Size Meeting of Management Team, Advisory Panel, and Contractor (discuss baseline spill risk report; review risk matrix evaluation approach; discuss scope of Phase A consequence analysis) Specify Scope of Phase A Draft Report on Phase A Consequence Analysis Consequence Analysis Review Phase A Review Phase A Review Phase A Consequence Analysis Consequence Analysis Consequence Analysis Provide Comments on Final Report on Phase A Draft Phase A Consequence Traffic/Spill/Consequence Report to Contractor Studies Qualitative Assessment and Prioritization of Risk Reduction Options Meeting of Management Team, Advisory Panel, and Contractor (establish list of potential risk reduction measures; prioritize list of risk reduction measures)
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The Phase A characterization of risk is needed for the initial qualitative assessment of risk reduction measures and should serve as a baseline for the focused quantitative risk reduction investigations. Care must be taken to avoid spending too much of the budget on the Phase A effort; the committee believes that this effort can be completed for about 25 percent of the overall budget.
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The Phase A study should identify the highest risks in terms of the types of spills and vessels involved, the types of accidents and their likely causes and scenarios, and the spill sizes and likely locations, and it should provide some sense of the environmental impacts. The intent is to provide sufficient information with which to prioritize risk reduction measures on a qualitative basis.
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The Risk Analysis Team should be available during these deliberations to provide background information and insight into the Phase A investigations. Figure S-4 illustrates a risk matrix that the committee recommends using as a structured process for reaching conclusions and establishing priorities for risk reduction measures.
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FIGURE S-4 Proposed risk matrix. Implementation of Risk Reduction Measures The development of risk reduction measures for implementation will require consideration of who the decision makers are and what capacities they have to effect recommended changes.
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CONCLUSION Despite the complexity of the system and the open-ended nature of the problem, the committee is confident that a rigorous and comprehensive risk assessment of shipping in the Aleutian Islands can be conducted within the available resources and that needed safety improvements can be justified in the process. The committee also understands that, while certain historical and time-series data are limited, they can be enhanced and supplemented by relevant worldwide data and local expertise and judgment.
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