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Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies (2010) / Chapter Skim
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7 Conclusion
Pages 105-110

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From page 105...
... STEPS TO BuILD A PERSISTENT FORECASTINg SYSTEM FOR DISRuPTIvE TECHNOLOgIES An open and persistent system offers the opportunity to use a richer set of data inputs, forecasting methods, assessments, and analytical capabilities to produce more useful forecasts. A poorly designed system could be overwhelmed by information overload or missed correlations due to poor data organization techniques, or it might never achieve a critical mass of expert or public participation.
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From page 106...
... Forecasting Multiple forecasting System should utilize multiple forecasting methodologies as inputs to the system methods methodologies to reduce bias and to capture the widest range of possible forecast futures. Backcasting should be one of the processes used with a handful of initial future scenarios to begin the process of identifying key enablers, inhibitors, and drivers of potential disruptions, with particular attention to identifying measurements of interest, signposts, and tipping points.
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From page 107...
... Impact assessment Employ methods to assess impact of potential disruptive technology and processes recommend potential methods to mitigate or capitalize on the disruption. Threshold levels and Employ methods to set and modify warning signal threshold levels and escalate escalation processes potentially high-impact signals or developments to other analytical perspectives or decision makers.
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From page 108...
... Reduce semantic inconsistency by developing domain-specific anthologies and by employing unstructured data-processing methods such as data mining, text analytics, and link analysis for creating structured data from unstructured data; using semantic web technologies; and utilizing modern extract, transform, and load (ETL) tools to normalize dissimilar datasets.
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From page 109...
... System operators must assess the potential impact of the forecast on society, resources, etc., and the lead time, from warning to event, to determine appropriate signals to track, threshold levels, and optimal resource allocation methods.
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From page 110...
... Persistent systems require continuing sponsorship and organizational support. Building and maintaining an ideal, open, and persistent forecasting platform will not be inexpensive.
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Key Terms

  • disruptive technologies
  • forecasting methodologies
  • public participation
  • potential disruptive
  • reference data

  • disruptive events
  • key enablers
  • threshold levels
  • bias mitigation
  • unstructured data

  • proprietary data
  • traditional means
  • communication tools
  • information sources
  • appropriate incentives

  • weak signals
  • culturally appropriate
  • critical mass
  • data using
  • multiple forecasting

  • novel methods
  • potential disruptions
  • ongoing recruitment
  • data feeds
  • employ methods

  • historical reference
  • team expert
  • utilizes qualitative
  • key experts
  • future outlook


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