Research and Applications Needs in Flood Hydrology Science A Summary of the October 15, 2008 Workshop of the Planning Committee on Hydrologic Science (2009) / Chapter Skim
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Topic I What Should Be the Underpinnings and Motivating Science and Applications Questions in a New Science of Hydrologic Extremes?
Topic I What Should Be the Underpinnings and Motivating Science and Applications Questions in a New Science of Hydrologic Extremes?
Pages 3-5
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A defensible and successful approach to mapping changing flood risk in time would need to recognize both systematic natural climate variations over decadal scales and anthropogenic changes in climate. The challenge is to develop a framework to encompass assessment of conditional (given observed climate conditions, as reflected in slowly varying ocean temperature fields)
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Returning to river issues, Lall summarized what he called "dogmas"; that extreme rainfall plus antecedent land conditions equals an extreme river flood, that topography and channel network structure lead to scaling laws for flood extremes, and that various principles for regionalization of flood frequency related to area or statistical homogeneity are available. All, he said, assume stationarity, and we have done very limited causal analysis of climate mechanisms and their use in prediction of static or dynamic risk.
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Finally, several participants noted that while 30 years ago a meeting like this to consider linked atmospheric and hydrologic processes would never have occurred, hydrologists will need to improve their communication with social scientists, economists, insurers, biogeographers, and others to effectively understand and address the flood vulnerability issue. BREAKOUT SESSION REPORT Rapporteur Eric Wood summarized the discussion in the first breakout group.
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