Avoiding Technology Surprise for Tomorrow's Warfighter Symposium 2010 (2010) / Chapter Skim
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3 Discussion, Analysis, and Key Themes
3 Discussion, Analysis, and Key Themes
Pages 17-29
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From page 17... ...
context in which an adversary operates. • It is now easier to gain access to potentially disruptive technologies or to component technologies that can be combined to create disruptive tech nologies; more difficult to monitor the increasing number of technology developments that could lead to surprise; and nearly impossible to antici pate the growing number of new uses for older technologies and tools.
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From page 18... ...
These areas are all discussed more fully in the following sections of this chapter. LACk OF SHARED uNDERSTANDINg OF NEW TECHNOLOgIES Symposium participants' differing perspectives on which technologies were on the cutting edge of development stimulated discussion regarding the signifi cance and consequences of the featured technology topics and the relevance of their emergence in adversarial circumstances.
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From page 19... ...
One participant observed how amazing it was that junior officers' ideas for using technologies were often resisted at first by their older commanders but then noted that when the junior officers demonstrated success, the general officers were will ing to change their viewpoints. During the discussions surrounding Human 2.0, virtual reality was presented as an enabler both for technology surprise and for behavioral development.
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From page 20... ...
However, there seemed to be a dichotomy in the audience between those who saw a military relevance for virtual or augmented reality and those who thought it was overrated. One participant noted that augmented reality using synthetic visual generation and networked sensors could allow a warfighter to see what is on the other side of a wall; another disputed the idea, claiming that no evidence has shown real impacts from the use of immersive virtual environments.
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From page 21... ...
This part of the discussion intrigued some of the symposium participants, and it became clear that the elements comprised by COD were neither well understood by the individuals present nor consistently definable by them. There was a concern that the intelligence community needed to understand COD much better and that such understanding would be critical to comprehending the development potential in specific situations.
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From page 22... ...
geopolitical Context Geopolitical context is perhaps the most familiar source of cultural distinction because it is the one with which we are most familiar -- people or groups from a distant region are different from "us" by virtue of their culture. As such, it was the first source of cultural distinction to warrant attention by the symposium participants.
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From page 23... ...
Put another way, on the international stage, what the United States intends is often not what is inferred, many times for no other reason than a culturally uninformed choice of words or gestures to which we ascribe little meaning but which have great significance for the observer. Demography A more subtle cultural distinction comes from demography -- younger gen erations are increasingly more immersed in network-enabled entertainment and productivity than older generations and, therefore, have a very different apprecia tion and interpretation of what is irtual in culture and games and what is real.
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From page 24... ...
Another participant noted that demographic cultural differences also exist within geographically defined cultures, including in the United States, where, according to one observer, young army officers who use these new technologies to increase their agility showed all of "us old guys" how technology should be integrated into the Army. As mentioned above, one observer expressed amaze ment that junior officers' ideas to use technologies were initially so resisted by their older commanders, whereupon another attendee offered having witnessed one senior officer refer to those technologies as "destructive to the chain of command." values The United States has learned, painfully, that certain values considered by our citizenry to be abhorrent and even prohibited in our own culture are nonetheless fully accepted as appropriate, or at least permissible, in the cultures of some of our adversaries.
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From page 25... ...
gROWINg EASE OF ACCESS TO POTENTIALLy DISRuPTIvE TECHNOLOgIES AND INCREASINg DIFFICuLTy OF MONITORINg Commercially Driven Emergence of Disruptive Technologies The potential for surprise arising from commercial development efforts was considered from several angles. One was the speed with which commercial development can occur, particularly as contrasted with the pace of U.S.
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From page 26... ...
Another participant pointed out that genetic engineering combined with brain interface development may enable advances in behavioral control, with the resulting potential for creating a new class of engineered humans of particular use as "cyberwarriors."7 Concern was expressed about the potential for benign, highly profitable tech nologies developed by the commercial sector to be converted or "frankensteined" into offensive technologies. This concern arose most often when the discussion turned to biotechnology, virtual reality, social computing, or space exploration.
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From page 27... ...
It was pointed out that while most of the R&D on advanced batteries takes place in the United States, most battery manufacturing is in Asia (mainly China) , and that U.S.-based production facilities have been closed or sold to foreign owners.
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From page 28... ...
One participant declared that, at least for the tech nologies discussed at the symposium, there are few better examples of technology levelers for a non-state actor than exploitation of open-source technologies and expertise; the open and available nature of the Internet and open-source content offers clear and explicit instruction on how to do something and in some cases will nearly do it for you -- you only need to hit "play." The Challenge of keeping up In the various discussions about how surprising or disruptive technologies could emerge, there appeared a recurring question: Could such technology and expertise be discovered solely from the published literature? Because researchers, particularly those in academia, are so highly motivated to publish, does it stand to reason that the literature is an obvious source of information about new technol ogy developments?
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From page 29... ...
Also mentioned was the evolution of the literature to include Web publishing and blogging, which presents new challenges for tracking. To paraphrase many symposium participants, in order to extract knowledge from the published literature and obtain data on frequency of publication in a timely way, there would have to be ongoing collaboration with the academic community.
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