TRB Special Report 301: Traffic Controller Staffing in the En Route Domain A Review of the Federal Aviation Administration's Task Load Model (2010) / Chapter Skim
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5 Findings and Recommendations
5 Findings and Recommendations
Pages 58-64
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From page 58... ...
The model uses traffic operations and flightplanning data to simulate the traffic activity in each sector. It then associates with this traffic the specific controller tasks that must be performed, computes and assigns a time to perform each task, and calculates the total time spent by controllers on the modeled tasks.
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From page 59... ...
Traffic Modeling Compared with simple traffic counts, the simulations of traffic in the CAASD model provide a more complete picture of both the volume and nature of traffic activity in the en route domain. The traffic activity is modeled in sufficient depth and resolution to enable reasonable approximations of traffic complexity and associated controller tasks.
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From page 60... ...
All of the PTT conversion methods used, including the current method of fuzzy logic modeling, exhibit the same fundamental flaw -- they imply an understanding of total task load without ever identifying the unmodeled tasks, much less measuring the time it takes to perform them. The conversions rely on experts to determine thresholds and to assign complexity weightings to the unidentified and unmodeled tasks.
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From page 61... ...
The deficiencies of these two modeling processes go well beyond parameter validation, as explained earlier. Yet the lack of empirical data on task performance has hindered validation throughout the modeling process, from assessing key assumptions about tasks being performed sequentially and at a fixed pace to characterizing the tasks handled by the associate controller.
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From page 62... ...
It is in this context that the committee wishes to express its strong view that the current model is deficient for estimating PTT and that continuing to iterate on it in the same manner as in the past while not incorporating more complete and representative task performance data will do little to improve this situation. Looking farther out, the durability of the task load model for PTT analysis and for other possible applications, such as to inform traffic flow planning, will depend not only on the successful gathering and use of task performance data but also on the nature and pace of change in the air traffic control enterprise.
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From page 63... ...
In the following recommendations it is presumed that FAA will elect to retain the core model and invest meaningfully in its improvement. Observe and Measure Controller Task Performance Through more systematic and carefully designed observation and analysis of controller performance, model developers should gain a better understanding of the tasks that controllers perform in working en route traffic, how they perform them, and the time required to do so.
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From page 64... ...
Validate Model Elements Task performance data should be used also to assess the validity and impact of all key modeling processes, relationships, and assumptions. Because it is not possible to validate PTT estimates against actual staffing levels, ensuring that the model elements are well justified and viewed as credible is vitally important.
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