Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Summary of a Workshop (2011) / Chapter Skim
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Developing Narratives for Next-Generation Scenarios Climate Change Research and Assessment--Richard Moss
Developing Narratives for Next-Generation Scenarios Climate Change Research and Assessment--Richard Moss
Pages 143-150
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100 Moss, R.H., Mustafa Babiker, Sander Brinkman, Eduardo Calvo, Tim Carter, Jae Edmonds, Ismail Elgizouli, Seita Emori, Lin Erda, Kathy Hibbard, Roger Jones, Mikiko Kainuma, Jessica Kelleher, Jean Francois Lamarque, Martin Manning, Ben Matthews, Jerry Meehl, Leo Meyer, John Mitchell, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Brian O'Neill, Ramon Pichs, Keywan Riahi, Steven Rose, Paul Runci, Ron Stouffer, Detlef van Vuuren, John Weyant, Tom Wilbanks, Jean Pascal van Ypersele, and Monika Zurek. Towards New Scenarios for Analysis of Emissions, Climate Change, Impacts, and Response Strategies.
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, and model-based scenarios produced with general circulation models (GCMsboth global and regional) "forced" with scenarios of emissions.103 Emissions scenarios are developed primarily using integrated assessment models (IAMs)
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below a specified level (see, for example, Clarke, L. et al. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations)
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A New Process Scenarios were typically developed and applied sequentially, in a linear causal chain that extended from the socioeconomic factors that influence greenhouse gas emissions to atmospheric and climate processes to impacts. This sequential process involved developing emissions scenarios based on different socioeconomic futures, esti mating concentrations and radiative forcing from emissions and land use change, projecting the ensuing climate, and then using the resulting climate scenarios in impact research.
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120 Further information on these research activities, which are coordinated through the Climate Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5) is available.121 Integrated assessment modelers will develop an ensemble of new socioeconomic and emissions scenarios that explore a variety of issues including alternative baselines and approaches to reach the various radiative forcing targets.
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These end users would benefit from improved approaches to develop locally or sectorally oriented scenarios embedded within broader climate and socioeconomic scenarios. Initial efforts at developing such nested scenarios were carried out using the SRES, and these were facilitated by use of the narratives of storylines that served as the foundation for the SRES.124 However, the initial focus on emissions, coupled with the time pressure to produce the scenarios relatively quickly so that climate modelers could apply them, meant that issues important to vulnerability assess ments were not incorporated systematically into the global scenarios themselves.
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More attention to the development of socioeconomic scenarios that address both mitigation and adaptation can lead to improved understanding of the interactions of these distinct approaches in managing risks from anthropogenic climate change. Because of the inherent potential of scenario techniques to evaluate decision making under conditions of deep uncertainty, it is especially important to develop tools for a wider range of users that facilitate examination of regional or sectoral decisions in the context of a wide range of future climate and socioeconomic conditions.
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