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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Summary of a Workshop (2011) / Chapter Skim
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5 Story Lines, Scenarios, and the Limits of Long-Term Socio-Techno-Economic Forecasting
Pages 19-21

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From page 19...
... to help address critiques of past scenarios, including the perceived overconfidence in scenario details; (2) to recognize evolving information needs, including the need for more information on adapta tion to and mitigation of climatic change; (3)
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From page 20...
... He went on to discuss the historical record of technical change for various industries in the United States and the modeling of technical change and substitution in the IGEM model. The use of econometrics in the IGEM model makes it possible to sort out what portion of the technology change occurring over the very extensive historical record is attributable to price changes like those experienced during the energy crisis periods and how much is due to changes separate from price.
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From page 21...
... Nordhaus stated that he thought the natural place to start was with baselines, using as inputs some given policies rather than intermediate variables such as RCPs. Moss responded by saying that it is important to think about the issue from the point of view of what the climate modeling community is interested in: the reason for not starting with the story lines is that a great deal of effort had to be expended upfront to get to what the climate people were interested in, and, from the climate-modeling perspective, it did not seem necessary to actually predetermine what those story lines were in order to get to a particular climate future.
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Key Terms

  • climate modeling
  • technical change
  • modeling community
  • igem model
  • radiative forcing

  • integrated assessment
  • greenhouse gas
  • assessment modeling
  • historical record
  • climate models

  • socioeconomic scenario
  • particular climate
  • developed scenario
  • econometric model
  • coupling socioeconomic

  • lines generated
  • climate scenarios
  • climate people
  • modeling based
  • igem econometric

  • modeling approach
  • socioeconomic story
  • socioeconomic quantification
  • climate process
  • climate future

  • socioeconomic scenarios
  • socioeconomic modeling
  • scenario process
  • illustrative story
  • econometric approach


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