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Modeling the Economics of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Summary of a Workshop (2011) / Chapter Skim
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3 Uses and Abuses of Learning, Experience, and Knowledge Curves
Pages 9-12

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From page 9...
... The first speaker, Nebojsa Nakicenovic from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, dis cussed moving beyond the black box of learning curves to focus on their use and misuse in assessments of tech nological change. Nakicenovic stated that the actual mechanisms represented by learning curves are unknown and that there is not a formal theoretical basis for measuring the fundamental processes characterized by such curves.
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From page 10...
... bitmap issues embodied in learning curves include understanding the specific processes that lurk behind the black box of technological improvement over time and, more precisely, the question of "who learns what? " At the most general level, technological progress results from cumulative experience, but the magnitude of this progress for an individual technology or service is hugely uncertain, and there is almost nothing deterministic about the learning phenomenon.
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From page 11...
... These and other case studies showed that the cost of installations often increased significantly over the course of the first few projects before eventually declining in accord with traditional learning curves. Figure 3.2 shows the results of a cost projection model for a coal-fired integrated gasification combined cycle power plant with CCS together with learning rate analogues for each major plant component based on experience with similar technologies.
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From page 12...
... , to bracket the range of carbon prices across all 10 integrated assessment models used in a recent Energy Modeling Forum activity that looked at the costs for meeting multiple climate change stabilization goals. Edmonds also noted that the GCAM model does not include endogenous technological change, although the model does tend to show declining technology costs with increas ing cumulative production due to other fundamental processes represented within the model.
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Key Terms

  • learning rates
  • cost reductions
  • learning curve
  • knowledge curves
  • greenhouse gas

  • gas mitigation
  • estimated learning
  • integrated gasification
  • power plant
  • major plant

  • carbon capture
  • gasification combined
  • fundamental processes
  • endogenous technological
  • technological progress

  • university focused
  • biased upward
  • black box
  • combined cycle
  • learning model

  • representing learning
  • technology learning
  • future learning
  • plot learning
  • learning process

  • learning rate
  • exploring learning
  • learning incorporated
  • estimating learning
  • traditional learning


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