Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022 (2011) / Chapter Skim
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9 Recommended Flight Investigations: 2013-2022
9 Recommended Flight Investigations: 2013-2022
Pages 257-282
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From page 257... ...
These missions include the Cassini mission to the Saturn system, several ongoing Mars missions, the New Horizons mission to Pluto, ongoing Discovery missions, and others. Ensure a level of funding that is adequate for successful operation, analysis of data, and publication of the results of these missions, and for extended missions that afford rich new science return.
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From page 258... ...
Highest-priority new that cryogenic First and highest- missions in priority comet sample priority element is Jupiter Europa Orbiter order: return can be Mars Astrobiology should: 1. Jupiter Europa carried out in the Explorer-Cacher.
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From page 259... ...
MISSIONS RECOMMENDED PREVIOUSLY AND COST CONSIDERATIONS The 2003 planetary science decadal survey recommended a total of nine missions: 1 • The Europa Geophysical Explorer, which was the highest-priority flagship-class mission recommended in the report; • Five candidate New Frontiers missions -- Kuiper Belt-Pluto Explorer, South Pole-Aitken Basin Sample Return, Jupiter Polar Orbiter with Probes, Venus In Situ Explorer, and Comet Surface Sample Return; and • Three Mars missions -- Mars Science Laboratory, Mars Upper Atmosphere Orbiter, and Mars Long-Lived Lander Network. Mars Sample Return was regarded by the 2003 decadal survey as an important mission for the decade 20132022, and technology development for the mission was recommended for the decade covered by that survey.
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From page 260... ...
As discussed in some detail below, the Discovery program remains vibrant and highly valuable, allowing the science community to propose a diverse range of low-cost missions with short development times and focused science objectives. The New Frontiers program fills the middle ground between the small and relatively inexpensive Discovery missions and the much larger and more costly flagship missions.
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From page 261... ...
New Frontiers missions address focused science goals that cannot be implemented within the Discovery cost cap but that do not require the resources of a flagship mission. More expensive than the New Frontiers cost cap, flagship missions can cost up to several billion dollars.
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From page 262... ...
A 30 percent overrun in the cost of a mission priced at several billion dollars can distort the entire program of planetary science recommended in a given decadal survey. 8 Or, as stated in stark language in the NRC report An Assessment of Balance in NASA's Science Programs, "The major missions in space and Earth science are being executed at costs well in excess of the costs estimated at the time when the missions were recommended in the NRC's decadal surveys for their disciplines.
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From page 263... ...
And the population of scientifically compelling targets is not static, but rather is continually increasing as a consequence of discoveries in the supporting research and analysis programs. Because there is still so much compelling science that can be addressed by Discovery missions, the committee recommends continuation of the Discovery program at its current level, adjusted for inflation, with a cost cap per mission that is also adjusted for inflation from the current value (i.e., to about $500 million FY2015)
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From page 264... ...
The committee recommends that future Discovery Announcements of Opportunity allow proposals for space-based telescopes, and that planetary science from space-based telescopes be listed as one of the goals of the Discovery program. Extended Missions for Ongoing Projects Mission extensions can be significant and highly productive, and may also enhance missions that undergo changes in scope because of unpredictable events or opportunities.
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From page 265... ...
Focused investigations that address a specific, NASA-identified flight opportunity, a SALMON type under which the U.S.-provided instruments for the 2016 Mars Trace Gas Orbiter were recently acquired. In addition to their science return, Missions of Opportunity provide a chance for new entrants to join the field, for technologies to be validated, and for future PIs to gain experience.
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From page 266... ...
This change represents a modest increase in the total cost of a New Frontiers mission provided that the cost of launch vehicles does not rise precipitously; the increase is fully accounted for in the program recommendations below.12 As shown below, this change will allow a scientifically rich and diverse set of New Frontiers missions to be carried out. Importantly, it will also help protect the science content of the New Frontiers program against increases and volatility in launch vehicle costs.
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From page 267... ...
For the other five listed above, the CATE analyses performed in support of this decadal survey have shown that it may be possible to execute them within the New Frontiers cost cap (see Appendix C)
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From page 268... ...
In evaluating MAX-C's science return per dollar, the committee considered the science return of the full Mars Sample Return campaign and the costs of the full NASA portion of that campaign. • Uranus Orbiter and Probe -- This mission consists of a spacecraft that would deploy a small probe into the atmosphere to make in situ measurements of noble gas abundances and isotopic ratios for an ice-giant atmosphere.
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From page 269... ...
The cost estimates are as follows: • Enceladus Orbiter, $1.9 billion; • Jupiter Europa Orbiter, $4.7 billion; • Mars Astrobiology Explorer-Cacher, $3.5 billion;17 • Uranus Orbiter and Probe, $2.7 billion;18 and • Venus Climate Mission, $2.4 billion. These costs are substantial, but on the basis of a long history of cost growth for complex planetary missions, the committee believes them to be realistic.
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From page 270... ...
To be of benefit to NASA, this partnership must also involve ESA participation in other missions of the three-mission Mars Sample Return campaign. Indeed, NASA is unlikely to be able to afford two more missions to return samples in the following decade unless the partnership continues into that decade and ESA makes significant contributions to the costs of those missions.
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From page 271... ...
However, as it is currently designed, JEO has a cost that is so high that both a decrease in mission scope and an increase in NASA's planetary budget are necessary to make it affordable. The Europa Geophysical Explorer, from which the JEO concept is derived, was the one flagship mission recommended in the 2003 planetary science decadal survey.
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From page 272... ...
Notional funding profiles for the two programs are shown in Figure 9.1. The recommended program shown assumes TABLE 9.3 Two Alternative Flight Programs for the Decade 2013-2022 Recommended Program Cost-Constrained Program Discovery program funded at the current level adjusted for Discovery program funded at the current level adjusted for inflation inflation Mars Trace Gas Orbiter conducted jointly with ESA Mars Trace Gas Orbiter conducted jointly with ESA New Frontiers Mission 4 New Frontiers Mission 4 New Frontiers Mission 5 New Frontiers Mission 5 MAX-C at $2.5 billion MAX-C at $2.5 billion Jupiter Europa Orbiter descoped Uranus Orbiter and Probe Uranus Orbiter and Probe NOTE: The recommended program can be conducted assuming an increase in the NASA budget that allows a new start for the Jupiter Europa Orbiter.
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From page 273... ...
programs, in real-year dollars, for fiscal years 2013-2022. The heavy black line shows the projected available funding for the NASA Planetary Science Division (PSD)
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From page 274... ...
Tour and Rendezvous, Comet Surface Sample Return, Venus Climate Mission, Discovery missions Planetary habitats 4. What were the primordial sources of organic matter, and Mars Sample Return, Jupiter Europa Orbiter, where does organic synthesis continue today?
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From page 275... ...
The committee expects that all of the five candidate flagships that are not initiated in 2013-2022 will remain strong candidates at the time of the next decadal survey. Therefore, candidate flagship missions from the list above that cannot be initiated in 2013-2022 should receive thorough technical studies and technology investments, so that they will be ready in time for consideration in the next decade.
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From page 276... ...
Again, the committee assumes that a significant fraction of the combined Mars Sample Return Lander and Orbiter costs would be borne by ESA. • Neptune System Orbiter and Probe -- If unforeseen circumstances were to make it impossible to begin the Uranus Orbiter and Probe mission on the schedule recommended above, Neptune could become an attractive alternate target for most ice-giant system science.
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From page 277... ...
• Use dual manifesting to reduce individual mission costs. Combining two missions with complementary science objectives onto one launch vehicle reduces the costs for each mission.
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From page 278... ...
Hence, a maximum of six ASRGs for two New Frontiers missions brackets potential requirements. The Uranus Orbiter and Probe and the Enceladus Orbiter each require three ASRGs and cannot be carried out with MMRTGs due to the
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From page 279... ...
Discovery 12 is needed to qualify ASRGs, and Discovery 14 and 16 could potentially use these as well -- each is currently baselined with two. Hence, 15 ASRGs and 5 MMRTGs are implied by the recommended decadal survey plan presented above; the cost-constrained plan would require only 15 ASRGs.
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From page 280... ...
All three of the flagship missions in the recommended program have the potential for substantial international collaboration. EJSM would be done collaboratively with ESA, flying both the NASA Jupiter Europa Orbiter and the ESA Jupiter Ganymede Orbiter.
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From page 281... ...
Launch is scheduled for 2016. 17 This is the cost of MAX-C only, not the cost of the full Mars Sample Return campaign.
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