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From page 331... ...
report published in 2006 concluded that "major missions in space and Earth science are being executed at costs well in excess of the costs estimated at the time when the missions were recommended in the National Research Council's decadal surveys for their disciplines. Consequently, the orderly planning process that has served the space and Earth science communities well has been disrupted, and balance among large, medium, and small missions has been difficult to maintain."1 In response to this concern, the same report recommended that "NASA should undertake independent, systematic, and comprehensive evaluations of the cost-to-complete of each of its space and Earth science missions that are under development, for the purpose of determining the adequacy of budget and schedule."2 An extended discussion of cost estimates and of the technology readiness of candidate missions took place during a subsequent NRC workshop concerning lessons learned from past decadal surveys.
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From page 332... ...
To ensure that the mission concepts were sufficiently mature for subsequent evaluation by the CATE team, the committee commissioned technical studies at leading design centers, including the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Goddard Space Flight Center, the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, and Marshall Space Flight Center. The committee's steering group selected concepts to be studied from among those recommended by the panels.
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From page 333... ...
, to cross-check cost and schedule estimates for internal consistency and risk assessment. • In an integrated fashion, quantify the total threats to costs from schedule growth, the costs of maturing technology, and the threat of costs owing to mass growth resulting in the need for a larger, more costly launch vehicle.
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From page 334... ...
The CATE process places no cost cap on mission concepts, and hence risk as a function of cost is not considered. Concept maturity and technical risk are evaluated in terms of the ability of a concept to meet performance goals within proposed launch dates with adequate mass, power, and performance margins.
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From page 335... ...
To be consistent for all concepts, the CATE cost process allows an increase in cost resulting from increased contingency mass and power, increased schedule, increased required launch vehicle capability, and other cost threats depending on the concept maturity and specific risk assessment of a particular concept. All cost appraisals for the CATE process are probabilistic in nature and are based on the NASA historical record and documented project life-cycle growth studies.
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From page 336... ...
FIGURE C.3 Complexity Based Risk Assessment cost analysis superimposing the cost of a notional mission on historical data of cost versus complexity. A similar analysis can be performed plotting a schedule against complexity.
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From page 337... ...
; • Mars Sample Return Lander and Mars Ascent Vehicle (Box C.5) ;7 • Mars Sample Return Orbiter and Earth Entry Vehicle (Box C.6)
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From page 338... ...
entry. Solar Array = 5.0 m2 – Mini‐Probe is jettisoned minutes after EFS entry. Carrier Spacecraft Entry Flight System • Time Elapsed Since Heritage System Development – Study uses Pioneer Venus and Galileo Probe as basis for several estimates. • Potential for Carrier Spacecraft Instrument Growth Science Objectives Key Cost Element Comparison • Examine the Venus atmosphere 3.0 – Improve understanding of the current state and Cost Threats evolution of the strong CO2 greenhouse climate $2.4 B Reserves Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B) • Improve modeling of climate and global change on Launch Vehicle 2.0 Earth‐like planets Phase E Costs and Educa�on $1.6 B and Public Outreach • Key science issues addressed: Pre-launch Ground – Characterize the CO2 greenhouse atmosphere of Venus Flight System – Characterize the dynamics of Venus's superrotating 1.0 Instruments atmosphere Project Management/Systems – Constrain surface/atmosphere chemical exchange Engineering/Mission Assurance Phase A – Determine origin of Venus's atmosphere 0.0 – Understand implications for climate evolution of Earth Project CATE Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S Curve • Carrier Spacecraft 100 – Visible/Infrared Imager 90 Distribu�on Cumula�ve Probability (%)
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From page 339... ...
– Heat Flow Experiment 70 Design center es�mate CATE without cost threats – Electromagnetic Sounder 60 – Lunar Laser Ranging 50 – Guest Payload 40 30 – Education/Public Outreach Pancam 20 • Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator Surface Power 10 • Launch Mass: 3,572 kg (257 kg individual lander mass) 0 • Launch Date: 2016 (on Atlas V 511)
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From page 340... ...
• Key science issues addressed: Phase E Costs and Educa�on and Public $2.2 B Outreach – Searching for extant life on Mars Pre-launch Ground $2.0 – Searching for evidence of past life on Mars Flight System – Understanding martian climate history – Determining the ages of geologic terrains on Mars $1.0 Instruments – Understanding surface‐atmosphere interactions on Project Management/Systems Engineering/Mission Assurance Mars Phase A – Understanding martian interior processes $0.0 Project CATE Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S Curve • Model Payload with Sampling/Caching System 100 – Panoramic high resolution stereo imager (on mast) 90 Distribu�on – Near‐Infrared Point Spectrometer 80 CATE es�mate Design center es�mate Cumula�ve Probability (%)
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From page 341... ...
– Lack of maturity in SHEC subsystem – Effect of planetary protection and sample transfer requirements • Increased Rover Traverse Speed over Mars Science Laboratory and Mars Exploration Rover Science Objectives Key Cost Element Comparison $3.0 • Perform in situ science on Mars samples to look for Cost Threats evidence of ancient life or prebiotic chemistry $2.4 B Reserves • Collect, document, and package samples for future Launch Vehicle collection and return to Earth Es�mated Cost (FY15$B) $2.0 MAX-C Descope Phase E Costs and Educa�on and Public • Key science issues addressed: concept cost was not estimated by Outreach Pre-launch Ground – Searching for extant life on Mars project.
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From page 342... ...
Phase E Costs and Educa�on and Public • Launch collected samples into Mars orbit for retrieval by $3.0 Outreach the Mars Sample Return Orbiter $2.5 B Pre-launch Ground • Key science issues addressed: $2.0 Flight System – None Instruments $1.0 Project Management/Systems Engineering/Mission Assurance Phase A $0.0 Project CATE Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S Curve • Instrumentation: 100 – Lander: 3 lander cameras, 1 robotic arm camera, 1 90 Distribu�on CATE es�mate sample insertion camera, 2 descent cameras 80 Design center es�mate Cumula�ve Probability (%) – Fetch Rover: 4 navigation cameras, 4 hazard cameras 70 CATE without cost threats 2 60 • 1 x 2.8 m Diameter (6.2 m )
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From page 343... ...
$2.1 B Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B) $2.0 Launch Vehicle • Return the EEV to Earth $1.8 B Phase E Costs and Educa�on • Provide a communications relay between Earth and the and Public Outreach Mars Sample Return Lander Pre-launch Ground • Build Mars Returned‐Sample Handling facility Flight System $1.0 • Key science issues addressed: Instruments – None Project Management/Systems Engineering/Mission Assurance Phase A $0.0 Project CATE Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S Curve • Payload 100 – Optical Navigation Camera Assembly 90 Distribu�on CATE es�mate – Sample Capture and Transfer System 80 Design center es�mate Cumula�ve Probability (%)
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From page 344... ...
– Determining the state of Io's mantle $1.0 Phase E Costs and Educa�on and Public Outreach – Modeling Io's tidal heating mechanisms $0.8 Pre-launch Ground – Modeling tectonic processes on Io Flight System $0.6 – Understanding the interrelation between volcanic, Instruments atmospheric, plasma torus, and magnetospheric mass‐ $0.4 Project Management/Systems Engineering/Mission Assurance and energy‐exchange processes $0.2 Phase A – Determining whether Io's core is generating a magnetic $0.0 field Project CATE – Characterizing Io's surface composition – Improving understanding of the Jupiter system Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S Curve 100 • Flight System Payload 90 Distribu�on – Narrow Angle Imager CATE es�mate 80 – Thermal Mapper Design center es�mate Cumula�ve Probability (%) 70 CATE without cost threats – Ion and Neutral Mass Spectrometer 60 – Flux Gate Magnetometer 50 • Powered by Two ASRGs 40 • Launch Mass: 1,946 kg 30 • Launch Date: 2021 on Atlas V 401 20 • Orbit: 46‐degree Inclined Orbit at Jupiter with Multiple 10 Io Flybys 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B)
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From page 345... ...
70 CATE without cost threats – Chemistry: Vis‐IR Imaging Spectrometer, Ultraviolet 60 Spectrometer, and Ion and Neutral Mass Spectrometer 50 – Geology: Thermal Instrument, Narrow Angle Imager, 40 Wide and Medium Angle Imager 30 – Particles and Fields: Magnetometer, Particle and 20 Plasma Instrument 10 • Five Multi‐Mission Radioisotope Thermoelectric 0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 Generators Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B) • Launch Mass: 4,745 kg • Launch Date: 2020 (on Atlas V 551)
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From page 346... ...
70 CATE without cost threats – Thermal Imager 60 – Ultraviolet Spectrometer 50 – Gamma Ray Spectrometer 40 – Neutron Spectrometer 30 20 – Lidar 10 • Two Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generators 0 • Launch Mass: 1,176 kg 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 • Launch Date: 2019 (on Atlas V 411) Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B)
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From page 347... ...
70 CATE without cost threats • Carrier‐Relay Spacecraft Bus 60 • Two Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generators 50 • Launch Mass: 957 kg 40 • Launch Date: 2,027 (on Atlas V 401) 30 • Probe: Direct Entry to Saturn, Carrier‐Relay: Saturn 20 10 Flyby 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B)
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From page 348... ...
Science Objectives Key Cost Element Comparison $8.0 • Explore Titan as an Earth‐like system Cost Threats $6.7 B • Examine the organic chemistry of Titan's atmosphere $7.0 Reserves Project estimate • Explore Enceladus and Saturn's magnetosphere for clues shown includes $6.0 CATE estimate Launch Vehicle to Titan's origin and evolution of ESA elements Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B)
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From page 349... ...
• Observe interactions between Enceladus and the Saturn Phase E Costs and Educa�on and Public Outreach system and explore the surfaces and interiors of Saturn's $1.0 Pre-launch Ground moons Flight System • Key science issues addressed: Instruments – Investigating the nature of Enceladus's cryovolcanic $0.5 Project Management/Systems activity Engineering/Mission Assurance – Providing improved measurements of plume gas and Phase A $0.0 dust Project CATE – Measuring tidal flexing, magnetic induction, static gravity, topography, and heat flow Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S Curve 100 • Payload 90 Distribu�on – Medium Angle Imager CATE es�mate 80 Design center es�mate – Thermal Imaging Radiometer Cumula�ve Probability (%) 70 CATE without cost threats – Mass Spectrometer 60 – Dust Analyzer 50 – Magnetometer 40 • Three ASRGs 30 • Launch Mass: 3,560 kg 20 10 • Launch Date: 2023 (on Atlas V 521)
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From page 350... ...
noise to 0.1 nT background • System Mass and Power – Low‐mass and ‐power margins for this phase – High mass multiplying factor from large propulsion delta‐V requirements Science Objectives Key Cost Element Comparison $4.0 • Investigate the interior structure, atmosphere, and Cost Threats composition of Uranus $3.4 B Reserves • Observe the Uranus satellite and ring systems $3.0 • Key science issues addressed: Launch Vehicle Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B) – Determining atmospheric zonal winds and structure Phase E Costs and Educa�on – Understanding Uranus's magnetosphere and interior $1.9 B and Public Outreach $2.0 Pre-launch Ground dynamo – Determining noble gas abundances and isotopic ratios Flight System of H, C, N, and O within Uranus's atmosphere Instruments $1.0 – Determining the internal mass distribution of Uranus Project Management/Systems – Determining horizontal distribution of atmospheric Engineering/Mission Assurance Phase A thermal emission $0.0 – Observing Uranus's satellites Project CATE Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S Curve • Orbiter Payload 100 – Wide‐ and Narrow‐Angle Imagers 90 Distribu�on CATE es�mate – Visible/Near‐Infrared Mapping Spectrometer 80 Design center es�mate Cumula�ve Probability (%)
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From page 351... ...
• Sensitivity of Launch Opportunities to System Mass Magnetometer Boom – More trajectory analyses recommended • High Magnetic Cleanliness for Orbiter – Demanding requirement to reduce spacecraft magnetic noise to 0.1 nT background Science Objectives Key Cost Element Comparison $3.0 • Investigate the interior structure, atmosphere, and $2.7 B Cost Threats composition of Uranus Reserves • Observe the Uranus satellite and ring systems Launch Vehicle • Key science issues addressed: Es�mated Cost (FY15 $B) $2.0 – Determining atmospheric zonal winds and structure Phase E Costs and Educa�on and Public Outreach Uranus No SEP – Understanding Uranus's magnetosphere and interior concept cost was Pre-launch Ground not estimated by dynamo project.
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From page 352... ...
• Key science issues addressed: $1.0 B $1.0 Phase E Costs and Educa�on and – Determining the physical and chemical conditions in the Public Outreach $0.8 Pre-launch Ground outer solar system during its formation – Unraveling the history of the early solar system through $0.6 Flight System age dating of cometary grains Instruments – Elucidate the hypothesis that comets are the purveyors $0.4 Project Management/Systems of water and organics throughout the solar system $0.2 Engineering/Mission Assurance Phase A – Understanding the nature of giant‐planet cores $0.0 Project CATE Key Parameters Cost Risk Analysis S Curve • Payload 100 90 Distribu�on – Brush‐Wheel Sample Acquisition System CATE es�mate 80 – Sample Return Vehicle Design center es�mate Cumula�ve Probability (%) 70 CATE without cost threats – Sample Monitoring: Sample Imagers, Temperature and 60 Pressure Sensors 50 – Site Characterization: Narrow Field Visible Imager, Wide 40 Field Visible Imager, Thermal Infrared Imager 30 • 17.4 kW (1 AU Beginning of Life)
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From page 353... ...
The CATE process estimated mission costs that are considerably higher than the cost estimates provided by the design center study teams. The reason is that project-derived cost estimates are typically done using a bottomup or so-called grass roots approach, and beyond standard contingencies they do not include probabilities of risk incurred by necessary redesigns, schedule slips, or launch vehicle growth.
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