Seasonal to Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Challenges and Strategies (2012) / Chapter Skim
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3 Strategies for the Future
3 Strategies for the Future
Pages 27-44
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From page 27... ...
research efforts and for more accurate, Given the reality of limited resources, these timely and useful sea ice forecasts. For collaborative efforts are more likely to example, regularly scheduled, iterative, and identify resource needs and shared sustained discussions among end users, resources.
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From page 28... ...
Participants in these science connections with the goal of conversations could serve a role akin to that advancing the utility of sea ice predictions. of a diplomat, seeking and communicating For this process to be successful, it is ideas and suggestions that reflect a broad important for communities to learn each viewpoint.
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From page 29... ...
. The characteristics of these activity will likely not be effectively sustained conversations suggest leadership facilitated without a dedicated and deliberate from a high-level, inter-governmental office, effort backed by sufficient resources, agency, or consortium.
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From page 30... ...
It can be used for both seasonal and decadal timescales. SOURCE: Generated from discussions at the workshop.
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From page 31... ...
In a hindcast model study, a While recognizing that there are retrospective assessment of past years, both limitations in current modeling and initial conditions and validation data are observational techniques, the committee needed. An evaluation of this kind was offers possible strategies to significantly recently performed on forecasts of the El enhance our understanding and predictions Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomenon of Arctic sea ice cover over seasonal to (Barnston et al., 2012; Box 3.2)
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From page 32... ...
The skills of 2002-2011 models is slightly better than that of earlier decades, with the recent decade's dynamical ENSO prediction models outperforming their statistical counterparts to a slight but statistically significant extent. The greater power of dynamical models is largely attributable to the subset of dynamical models with the most advanced, high-resolution, fully coupled ocean atmosphere prediction systems using sophisticated data assimilation systems and large ensembles (Barnston et al., 2012)
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From page 33... ...
behavior of a sea ice cover composed of An end-to-end process study in the largely first-year ice. seasonal ice zone, guided by past work, Previous work done on the fundamental historical data and the output from properties of first-year sea ice (e.g., Weeks sensitivity studies using current models, and Ackley, 1982; Timco and Weeks, 2010)
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From page 34... ...
.c:. The concept of MoSAIC is to establish an international, multiyear, manned, drifting observatory in the central Arctic sea ice pack to obtain observations of atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean processes that will compose a testbed for process, regional, and global model evaluation and development.
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From page 35... ...
effectively coordinated and implemented, A comprehensive process study in the can have a greater impact than a more seasonal ice zone also offers the opportunity diffuse approach. If followed, a key addition to identify, develop, and test instruments to the approach used during SHEBA would and observational platforms that can be the increased involvement of stakeholders effectively and efficiently support both outside of the sea ice research community, seasonal and decadal prediction capabilities.
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From page 36... ...
The rates, locations, and processes by locations, and densities on seasonal sea ice forecasts. which these heat sources reach the overlying sea ice cover and affect sea ice anomaly Observations play a critical role in evolution are poorly understood, in large seasonal and decadal sea ice prediction.
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From page 37... ...
impacts on seasonal sea ice predictions (and Sea ice model predictive capabilities have sea ice simulations in general)
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From page 38... ...
However, on September 16, 2012, Arctic sea ice reached a minimum extent of 3.41 million square kilometers, the lowest seasonal minimum extent on satellite record. SOURCE: Adapted from ARCUS and SEARCH.
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From page 39... ...
and OSSEs to justify, for sea ice prediction Therefore, as a first step in designing OSEs and for other applications, future and OSSEs, there is a particularly urgent investments in the observations. need for a coordinated effort by these communities to design a set of experiments Key Strategy: Enhanced Numerical Model that will provide quantitative metrics of the Capabilities impact of various observation types, Enhancement of model-based predictive locations, and densities on seasonal sea ice capabilities will require coordinated forecasts, as well as the accuracy and experiments to (a)
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From page 40... ...
specific, key processes of importance to sea At the decadal timescale, where ice prediction; incorporate lessons learned predictions are largely influenced by forcing, from model sensitivity studies; and model sensitivity studies explore and collaborate closely with model developers to quantify the impact of a range of parameters identify approaches to resolve unrealistic or representations of physical processes on model behavior. Regional models and ice- predicted model outputs.
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From page 41... ...
These factors are not typically via the model sensitivity studies and considered in large-scale numerical models. intercomparison activities is climate model Model enhancements that incorporate these drift from an observationally-based and other relevant processes would allow for initialized state, which contaminates investigations of their role in sea ice predictions on seasonal to decadal timescale.
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From page 42... ...
Also, data Key Strategy: Improved Information and transfer and data transformation at data Data Management centers add additional layers of complexity and data latency. Given the vast amounts of disparate data on In the committee's opinion, the main Arctic sea ice and the numerous stakeholders who use these data, there is a purpose of a centralized information hub is need for a coordinated and centralized to serve as a primary launching pad for information hub for Arctic datasets that searches aimed at gaining access to this wide facilitates timely access to observational array of information.
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From page 43... ...
This is particularly critical for high-resolution and complex models applications related to seasonal sea ice coupled with diverse stakeholder needs has predictions, which require real-time data resulted in a rapid and increasing demand access for model output, in situ for data storage, analysis and distribution observations, satellite and aircraft survey (NRC, 2012a)
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From page 44... ...
major challenge lies in its initiation. There is Consistent data storage protocols need no shortage of candidate organizations well to be adopted that preserve ancillary data suited to facilitate the design and and original sample rates along with implementation of a central information interoperability standards for data hub, though effective data management interchange.
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