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Estimating Losses from Future Earthquakes (1989) / Chapter Skim
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3. Ground-Shaking Hazard
Pages 20-25

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From page 20...
... There are two general approaches to evaluating scenario earthquakes that are commonly referred to as deterministic and prom abilistic methods, although elements of judgment and uncertainty are present in both. DETERMINISTIC METHODS In this method, one or more earthquakes are postulated without explicit consideration of the probability that those events will occur.
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From page 21...
... The proper characteristics of the scenario earthquake for use in planning how to respond to a validated earthquake prediction would be the predicted earthquake's magnitude, location, or other available seismological information accompanying the prediction. Except for the greater potential for controversy concerning predicted earthquakes, the other aspects of loss estimation are the same for nonpredicted scenario earthquakes.
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From page 22...
... As stated earlier, it is desirable that at least a rough indication of the probability of occurrence be attached to ah scenario earthquakes, if only to convey to users and the public some indication of the likelihood of such an event. PROBABILISTIC METHODS As just noted, there are two situations where attempts to use the historical maximum earthquake run into difficulties.
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From page 23...
... (log scale) FIGURE 3-1 Graphs indicating probabilistic seismic hazard analysis steps.
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From page 24...
... The panel rejects the notion of a single standard probability at this time, but accepts that, in the absence of a suitable historical maximum earthquake, a scenario earthquake with an annual probability in the range from .001 to .005 is reasonable for disaster response and mitigation planning. Despite the lack of definite criteria, use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis offers the only rational means for selecting scenario earthquakes for many parts of the country.
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From page 25...
... While geotechnical data collected at individual construction sites can be very valuable in this effort, more generalized geologic mapping of districts and zones in a city or region is also useful and can lead to refinements in seismic hazard analyses. The essential requirement is to make clear whether the intensity in a scenario earthquake applies to the ground as it is locally found (i.e., no further correction for local soil conditions required)
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Key Terms

  • maximum earthquake
  • scenario earthquakes
  • ground shaking
  • scenario earthquake
  • hazard analysis

  • ground motion
  • seismic hazard
  • log scale
  • site conditions
  • local site

  • strong ground
  • probabilistic seismic
  • earthquake larger
  • analysis offers
  • loss estimation

  • ground failures
  • probabilistic methods
  • produce ground
  • requires explicit
  • increased intensities

  • loss estimates
  • standard ground
  • mmi scale
  • actual local
  • conditions local

  • indicate increased
  • indicating probabilistic
  • earlier loss
  • panel rejects
  • concerning predicted


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