Toward an Understanding of Global Change Initial Priorities for U.S. Contributions to the International Geosphere - Biosphere Program (1988) / Chapter Skim
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1. Initial Research Priorities for U.S. Participation in the IGBP
1. Initial Research Priorities for U.S. Participation in the IGBP
Pages 13-26
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From page 13... ...
The committee adopter! the following criteria for selecting these initial research initiatives: ~ The issue must be global in nature, and research conducted on the topic must be expected to lead rapidly to a greater understanding of global environmental change.
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From page 14... ...
RESEARCH INITIATIVES FOR EARLY IMPLEMENTATION . Answering these key questions about the earth system demands improved understanding of the influences of terrestrial and oceanic biota on the climate system, and the interactions with the hydrologic cycle, nutrient supply and transport, and surface climate conditions.
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From page 15... ...
to develop validated global models of the response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate, water and land use change, atmospheric chemistry, and other global- or regional-scale stress factors such as changing atmospheric composition, fires, herbivory, and disease; and (2) to determine how ecosystem structure and function affect evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and surface runoff on regional and global scales.
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From page 16... ...
Analysis of the human causes and effects of changes in the hydrologic cycle, including documenting past and projecting future human activities important for the hydrologic cycle; defining those aspects of hydrologic change most important for human activities; and (leveloping frameworks for application of hy(lrologic projections to environmental assessment and management. ~ Observations at a global scale of seasonal and interannu~ variations in vegetation cover and evapotranspiration.
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From page 17... ...
The initiative will require the following: · Experiments involving plants, soils, and peats to improve understanding of processes affecting gas exchange between them and the atmosphere, such as changes in carbon storage; the influence of nutrient availability; the influence of population dynamics through nitrogen fixation, and microbial processes; hydrological influences on partitioning between production of carbon dioxide and methane and between nitrogen and nitrous oxide; and the influence of the chemistry of precipitation on such processes. Experiments on intact ecosystems that include the biota and soils will also be needed to measure the effect of environmental changes on the complex, interacting processes of vegetation change, nutrient cycling, and gas fluxes.
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From page 18... ...
The component of this research initiative focused on fluxes of nutrients from terrestrial to aquatic systems will, in addition to studying nutrient transfers in natural ecosystems, emphasize the effects of land use change on the amount and pathways of nutrient losses from terrestrial ecosystems. The objective is to broaden the initiative on trace gas emissions to include analysis of how global changes now under way will affect the transfer of nutrients to riverine, estuarine, and ultimately, ocean systems.
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From page 19... ...
Analysis of the patterns and causes of anthropogenic land use change, including documenting past and projecting future human activities important for terrestrial nutrient fluxes, and defining those aspects of nutrient flux most important for human activities.
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Biogeochemical Dynamics in the Ocean The committee recommends a research initiative to understand and predict the effects of climate change on ocean biogeochemical cycles and their corresponding feedback to climate. 'the objective of this effort is to develop the capability to predict the effect of projected global climate change on the ocean's physical/chemical and biogeochemical processes, especially as they feed back to climate via the release or absorption of radiatively important gases such as carbon dioxide and organic sulfur species.
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From page 21... ...
· Investigating the biogeochemical processes responsible for forming, transporting, and preserving in ocean sediments the hard parts of plankton used in studies of past climates. ~ Initiating large-scale models of upper ocean physical and biogeochemical processes that can be used to assess the effects of climate change on biogeochemical processes that have potential to feed back to climate via the regulation of radiatively active trace gas release from the ocean.
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From page 22... ...
· Construction of future scenarios of global land use change, and exploration of how alternative human choices regarding global change could alter those scenarios. Parallel to the study of global land use change, a similar approach to the study of industrial metabolism would involve the following: Construction of a conceptual model linking demographic, economic, and institutional factors with the evolution of material and energy uses, and human consumption processes relevant to global change.
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From page 23... ...
Steering groups should be established on each of the five research initiatives proposed above as research foci for the initial contribution to the IGBP. These groups should be closely coordinated with other relevant activities in the National Research Council.
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From page 24... ...
One of these, the World Climate Research Program, organized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and ICSU, focuses on dynamic and hydrological processes in the climate system and has in planning or in progress a number of well-conceived projects (e.g., Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment, World Ocean Circulation Experiment, Tropical Ocean/GIobal Atmosphere Program, International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, and International Satellite Land-Surface Climatology Project)
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From page 25... ...
research on physiological responses of plants and animals to the environment, especially to multiple stresses; patterns of genetic variability, including the development of theory regarding evolutionary responses to rapid environmental change; the direct effects of elevated carbon dioxide concentrations on intact ecosystems; and characteristics that allow some species to adjust geographical ranges rapidly in the face of change while others become extinct; (2) monitoring of ongoing changes in distributions that may record the incipient effects of global change and of ongoing changes in Tend use; and (3)
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From page 26... ...
26 bear on human choices that affect global change; and evaluation and design of institutional mechanisms for better management of global change require further development in close collaboration with those relevant scientific communities in the social, behavioral, and engineering sciences that were not adequately represented in current planning activities.
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