Fixed-Route Transit Ridership Forecasting and Service Planning Methods (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 20-29
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Transit System, Richmond, Virginia • NYCT (Metropolitan Transit Authority–New York City Transit) , New York, New York • OCTA (Orange County Transportation Authority)
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REGIONAL TRANSPORTATION DISTRICT (DENVER, COLORADO) RTD prepares ridership forecasts for most service changes except for minor adjustments to schedules or route segments.
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Ridership forecasts would be developed under the scenarios included in the survey as follows: • Half-mile rerouting of an existing route to serve a new shopping center: first assess current ridership; estimate new ridership based on similar routes and shopping centers. • Extension of an existing route for one mile to serve a new residential development: estimate new ridership based on similar routes and developments.
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This case study shows that there may not be a real need for a ridership forecasting methodology at all transit agencies. The decision-making process at many small and mid-sized
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prepares ridership forecasts for most service changes except for minor service adjustments and scheduling changes. There is no specific threshold triggering the need for a ridership forecast.
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Ridership forecasts would be developed under the scenarios included in the survey as follows: • Half-mile rerouting of an existing route to serve a new shopping center: ridership forecasts are generally not prepared for this scale of change. • Extension of an existing route for one mile to serve a new residential development: ridership forecasts are generally not prepared for this scale of change to the bus system.
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ORANGE COUNTY TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY (ORANGE, CALIFORNIA) OCTA prepares ridership forecasts for virtually every service change.
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would complement and not compete with the long-range model, which requires too much work to generate interim year forecasts. Ridership forecasts would be developed under the scenarios included in the survey as follows: • Half-mile rerouting of an existing route to serve a new shopping center: (1)
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Light rail is evaluated using the four-step travel model. The Operations Planning and Planning Departments prepare ridership forecasts related to short-term service changes.
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This case study provides an example of a ridership forecasting model in use at a transit agency. It is noteworthy that TriMet's first choice of methodology for incremental service changes is similar-route analysis, but the model is useful in addressing unique situations.
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