Fixed-Route Transit Ridership Forecasting and Service Planning Methods (2006) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Appendix B - Summary of Survey Results
Appendix B - Summary of Survey Results
Pages 39-49
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From page 39... ...
affects the resources required to deliver service on a route 25% change in miles/hours, less for Title VI analysis 25% change in ridership (required by city ordinance) 25% of route unless number of riders affected is moderate Action required by Board Added cost Any fare change Anything other than minor schedule adjustments Change in resource allocation Changes in route alignment and number of trips Significant enough to be part of service change program When transit agency requests 3.
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From page 40... ...
If a factor is involved for some types of changes but not others, please indicate. Existing system ridership 28 80% Existing route or route segment ridership 31 89% Ridership on similar routes 30 86% Origin/destination information 24 69% Demographic factors within the service area 27 77% Land use within the affected service area 25 71% Economic trends within the service area 21 60% Other (please specify)
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From page 41... ...
Change in route 3 Span of service 2 Change in scheduled service level 2 All 2 Any route or service change 2 Elasticities 2 Major new service, including fixed guideway extensions 1 Four-step travel model 1 Timed transfer 1 New route or corridor 1 Model validation 1 Significant service changes 1 7C. Type of change or forecast for ridership on similar routes.
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From page 42... ...
Econometric model 7 20% Four-step travel demand forecasting model 18 51% Regression analysis 7 20% Service elasticities 22 63% Rules of thumb or similar route analysis 28 80% Professional judgment 29 83% Other (please specify) : 7 20% Other includes trend analysis (3)
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From page 43... ...
Type of change or forecast for rules of thumb/similar routes Any route or service change 5 Change in route 4 Headway/schedule changes 3 Span of service 2 New route or corridor 2 Major new service, including fixed guideway extensions 1 Long-range plan 1 Significant service change 1 8F. Type of change or forecast for professional judgment Any route or service change 5 New route or corridor 2 All 2 Change in route 2 Span of service 1 Headway/schedule changes 1 Check on all forecasts 1 Significant service change 1 8G.
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From page 44... ...
, driver trip counts, special event surveys, on-board ridership surveys, distance walked, frequency of use, point checks for volume at peak load points/CBD cordon points, regional model, FTA Summitt software for BRT, service characteristics (2) , fare levels, traffic condition, type of fare paid (if available)
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From page 45... ...
Comparison of actual and projected ridership 31 94% Board understanding and approval 9 27% Other (please specify) : 2 6% Other includes meet expectations for growth; pre/post-implementation review plus professional judgment.
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From page 46... ...
Extension of an existing route for one mile to serve a new residential development Similar routes/changes 12 33% Similar conditions/area 11 31% Socioeconomic/demographic data 7 19% Productivity 6 17% Trip generation rate 5 14% Assume minimum performance standard 5 14% Would not analyze 5 14% Population/population density/no. households 5 14% Professional judgment 5 14% Local mode share 3 8% Current ridership 2 6% Consideration of through ridership 2 6% Current/planned development 2 6% Regression/sketch planning model 2 6% Four-step travel model 2 6% Evaluate trip generators/land use within 1/4 mile 2 6% Elasticities 1 3% Consultant 1 3% Understanding it takes time to reach ridership forecast 1 3% Rider input (public comments/on-board survey)
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From page 47... ...
Implementation of a new mode such as BRT Four-step travel model 17 47% Would not analyze/would not implement 7 19% Consultant 6 17% Travel time 4 11% Elasticities 4 11% Origin/destination data 3 8% Similar routes/changes 2 6% Assume minimum performance standard 2 6% Experience in other cities 2 6% Econometric model/new or refined model 2 6% Transfer data/connected routes/ridership shifts 1 3% Productivity 1 3% Evaluate trip generators/land use within 1/4 mile 1 3% Professional judgment 1 3% Service level changes 1 3% 47
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From page 48... ...
A 10-year ridership forecast as part of a long-range plan Four-step travel model 15 43% Trend line 12 34% Service level changes 8 23% Would not analyze 5 14% Demographic trends 3 9% Fare changes 2 6% Professional judgment 2 6% Economic/employment/sales tax revenue changes 2 6% Consultant 2 6% Elasticities 1 3% Current/planned development 1 3% Understanding it takes time to reach ridership forecast 1 3% Econometric model/new or refined model 1 3% Done elsewhere in agency 1 3% Origin/destination data 1 3% Similar routes/changes 1 3% Productivity 1 3% Population/population density/no. households 1 3% No.
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From page 49... ...
Is there another transit system that you suggest we contact for this synthesis project? Yes 10 28% No 26 72% Total responding 36 100% Total agencies named 14 Of named agencies, included in survey 10 71% 24.
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