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Fixed-Route Transit Ridership Forecasting and Service Planning Methods (2006) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 8-15

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From page 8...
... Formal 13 41 Informal 8 25 None 11 34 Total responding 32 100 TABLE 4 THRESHOLD FOR TRIGGERING RIDERSHIP FORECAST TABLE 3 REASONS FOR FORECASTING RIDERSHIP INTRODUCTION This is the first of two chapters presenting the results of a survey of transit agencies regarding ridership forecasting. The survey was designed to elicit information on methodologies in use in a variety of situations, level of satisfaction with these methods, and suggestions for improvements.
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From page 9...
... TABLE 7 DATA SOURCES FOR RIDERSHIP FORECASTS TABLE 8 ROLE OF ORIGIN/DESTINATION DATA IN RIDERSHIP FORECASTING Role No. Agencies Responding Agencies Responding (%)
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From page 10...
... Different by mode 9 45 Same by mode 11 55 Total responding 20 100 TABLE 9 SINGLE VERSUS MULTIPLE METHODS OF RIDERSHIP FORECASTING TABLE 10 FORECASTING METHODS: SHORT-RANGE VERSUS LONG-RANGE FORECASTS TABLE 11 FORECASTING METHODS: MULTIMODAL AGENCIES Forecasting Technique No. Agencies Responding Agencies Responding (%)
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From page 11...
... Responsibility for Ridership Forecasts Fourteen transit agencies reported more than one lead department in preparation of ridership forecasts. The transit agency's planning department is the most common location for the ridership forecasting function, as shown in Table 15.
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From page 12...
... Similar routes/service change 12 33 Similar conditions/area 11 31 Socioeconomic/demographic data 7 19 Route productivity 6 17 Trip generation rate 5 14 Assume minimum performance standard 5 14 Would not analyze 5 14 Population/population density/no. households 5 14 Professional judgment 5 14 TABLE 20 RIDERSHIP FORECASTING FOR SCENARIO B: ROUTE EXTENSION TO SERVE NEW RESIDENCES Distribution and Use No.
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From page 13...
... Elasticities 12 33 Route productivity 10 28 Would not analyze 8 22 Professional judgment 4 11 Similar routes/changes 4 11 TABLE 21 RIDERSHIP FORECASTING FOR SCENARIO C: HEADWAY CHANGE
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From page 14...
... Agencies Responding Agencies Responding (%) Similar routes/changes 15 42 Transfer data/connecting routes 8 22 Socioeconomic/demographic data 6 17 Productivity 5 14 Would not analyze 5 14 Four-step travel model 4 11 Similar conditions/area 4 11 Evaluate trip generators/land use within 0.25 mile 4 11 Assume minimum performance standard 4 11 TABLE 22 RIDERSHIP FORECASTING FOR SCENARIO D: CROSSTOWN ROUTE Response No.
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From page 15...
... Agencies Responding Agencies Responding (%) Four-step travel model 16 44 Trend line 12 33 Service level changes 8 22 Would not analyze 5 14 TABLE 25 RIDERSHIP FORECASTING FOR SCENARIO G: 10-YEAR RIDERSHIP FORECAST
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Key Terms

  • specific responses
  • evaluate trip
  • performance standard
  • weighted travel
  • evaluate similar

  • minimum performance
  • service level
  • assume minimum
  • route productivity
  • additional service

  • forecasts table
  • level changes
  • travel time
  • current route
  • generation rate

  • professional judgment
  • ridership forecasting
  • ridership forecasts
  • service change
  • travel model

  • existing service
  • similar service
  • shopping center
  • route transit
  • previous service

  • bus route
  • similar conditions
  • traffic generators
  • effort required
  • fare changes


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