Analysis of Aircraft Overruns and Undershoots for Runway Safety Areas (2008) / Chapter Skim
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4. Using the frequency models and location models, estimate for every operation the probability for each crash scenario and type of operation.
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should contain the information on the parameters used in the frequency models (Table 7)
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In this case, it is possible to assume the aircraft will be lost if it overruns the RSA and falls into the water. Distance x from the runway end is simply the length of RSA measuring 100 ft, and this is the value to be entered in the normalized x-location model given by Equation 13.
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Step 5 -- Characterize Risk Frequency Distribution The same procedure described for Step 3 can be used to compute the probability of severe consequences for every landing operation for Runway 07 that is part of the NOD sample. Each operation has a different risk associated with it.
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43 LDOR Probability Distribution of Risk 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 3.
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44 higher risk during the year. The assessment may help improve runway use so that risk is minimized for the airport.
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