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From page 4... ... Each set included: a frequency model for assessing the likelihood of the event, a location model to estimate the probability the aircraft wreckage is located beyond a given distance from the runway, and a consequence model that integrates the previous frequency and location model to evaluate the probability of severe consequences. Read the entire page →
From page 5... ... The risk analysis approach utilized in this study is based primarily on a review of operational experience, in particular, accident, incident, and normal operation data. The modeling approach adopted for the quantitative assessment of the risks 5 1 - Literature Review 2 - Functional Hazard Analysis 3 - Identification of Relevant Events and Parameters 4 - Accident/Incident Data Collection and Database Development 5 - Development of Approach for Risk Assessment of RSAs 6 - Development of Risk Models 7 - Development of Software for Risk Assessment Figure 1. Read the entire page →
From page 6... ... Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Figure 2. Read the entire page →
From page 7... ... 5 Remove all single engine aircraft and all piston engine aircraft entries. Piston engine aircraft are now used less frequently in civil aviation and therefore have been removed, to increase the validity of the modeling. Read the entire page →
From page 8... ... Previous studies using data from accident reports and docket files have reported on the poor quality of data available (Hagy and Marthinsen, 1987) Read the entire page →
From page 9... ... Some incidents are not reported because there were no consequences. To overcome this obstacle, a study was performed on the distribution of available data to assess the number of unreported incidents and to consider these cases when developing the frequency and location models. Read the entire page →
From page 10... ... Two of the most used during this study included: • ASN Aviation Safety Database: The Aviation Safety Network is a private, independent initiative founded in 1996. It covers accidents and safety issues with regards to airliners, military transport planes, and corporate jets, and contained descriptions of more than 10,700 incidents, hijackings, and accidents. Read the entire page →
From page 11... ... 11 Category Field Level 1 Field Level 2 Accident ID Event ID Accident Class Event Type Researcher Source Country StateLocation City Date Time Basic Info Basic Notes Make Model Series Serial Number Age No. of hours or Years No. Read the entire page →
From page 12... ... Violation Yes/No Approach Category Required Visual/Non-Precision/ILS Cat1, 2 or 3 Approach Category Used Other Aircraft Involved Yes/No Crash Controllability Fully/Partially/No Glide slope Captured Yes/No Go Around Yes/No GPWS Yes/No GPWS type 1st or 2nd Generation Localizer Captured Yes/No Runway Change Yes/No Stabilized Approach Yes/No Takeoff Aborted Yes/No Detailed Info Takeoff Aborted Speed Actual Weight at Crash Was Weight Estimated Yes/No Max Weight for Operation Destination Country Departure Country Diverted Flight Yes/No ELT Fitted and Operational Yes/No Flight Delayed Yes/No Flight Duration Fuel Load Load Factor Operation Type Scheduled Yes/No Landing Distance Required Takeoff Distance Required Takeoff Weight Takeoff Fuel Load Flight Data Weight restriction Violated Yes/No Obstacle Depth Obstacle Height Obstacle Width Obstacle Location X, Y and Z Hit Obstacles Notes Terrain Depth Terrain Height Terrain Width Terrain Location X, Y and Z Hit Terrain Notes No. Passenger Injuries Fatal, Serious, Minor, None No. Read the entire page →
From page 13... ... Obstacles Hit Runway Exit Speed Total Wreckage Path Length Pilot Actively Avoided POFI Angle POFI Velocity POFI Location X,Y and Z Wreckage Location Longitude and Latitude Wreckage Location X,Y and Z Runway Exit X Runway Touchdown X Touchdown Speed Wreckage Site Elevation Height Above Threshold Approach Speed Wreckage Path Length on Each Terrain Up to 4 segments Wreckage Slope Up to 4 segments Wreckage Info Wreckage Surface Up to 4 segments Power Brake (wheel brakes, spoilers or reversers) Hydraulic Tire Aircraft System Fault Other Low Visibility Rain Wind Shear Tailwind Crosswind Gusts Low Ceiling Strong Wind Anomalies Weather Conditions Turbulence Freezing Rain Other (continued on next page) Read the entire page →
From page 14... ... Normalization procedures used in this study are presented in Appendix K 14 Category Field Level 1 Field Level 2 Incorrect Flight Planning Communication/Coordination Visual Illusion Fatigue Pressonitis Human Errors Other Wet Contaminated - Standing water Contaminated - Rubber Contaminated - Oil Contaminated - Ice Contaminated - Slush Contaminated - Snow Contaminated - Paint Contaminated - Other Construction Runway Surface Conditions Down Slope Wildlife Hazards Unstabilized - Low Approach Unstabilized - Low Speed Long Touchdown Unstabilized - High Speed High Above Threshold Takeoff Rejected Approach/Takeoff Procedures Other Aircraft Body Type Wide or Narrow Aircraft Cost 2007 dollar value Human Cost 2007 dollar value Cost Total Event Cost 2007 dollar value Table 3. Read the entire page →
From page 15... ... This probability of overrunning the runway is represented by the dark shaded area. It would be best to model the whole probability distribution for the aircraft stopping location, but this information is not available for NOD, and an alternative modeling approach was required in a two-step process: evaluating the probability an aircraft will in fact overrun the runway, and modeling the likelihood the aircraft will stop beyond any given distance from the runway threshold. Read the entire page →
From page 16... ... . By combining the accident location model with the accident probability, the local probability of an accident can be calculated for each runway end. Read the entire page →
From page 17... ... The accident location model is based on historical data on accident locations. The distribution of accident locations relative to the runway was modeled through statistical functions. Read the entire page →
From page 18... ... , impact angle, and the local type of terrain. Initial attempts to model consequences focused on the relationship between the raw or normalized distances and the severity of the accident, reflected by the amount of damage and cost of injuries. Read the entire page →
From page 19... ... The software serves as a tool for risk assessment associated with overrun and undershoot accidents and provides a basic yet useful format for risk analysis professionals to assist airport operators in evaluating RSAs. Input data include the airport information, target level of safety (TLS) Read the entire page →

From page 4...

... Each set included: a frequency model for assessing the likelihood of the event, a location model to estimate the probability the aircraft wreckage is located beyond a given distance from the runway, and a consequence model that integrates the previous frequency and location model to evaluate the probability of severe consequences.