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1. Introduction
Pages 14-36

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From page 14...
... Thus we are concerned about the forces associated with changes in precollege enrollments in science and mathematics courses, including both changes in the demographic configuration of children in the relevant age ranges and changes in state or district requirements specifying the number of science and mathematics credits needed for high school graduation. We also look at the principal determinants of the total supply of teachers, including the demographics of the teacher corps.
From page 15...
... THE MEANING OF SHORTAGE In everyday parlance, when most people speak of a shortage of precollege science and mathematics teachers, they are likely to mean that they are dissatisfied with the quality of people teaching science and mathematics, rather than to mean that there are insufficient numbers of teachers to staff science and mathematics courses. In technical terms, it is hardly possible to
From page 16...
... . Thus a quantitative shortage fewer teachers teaching science and mathematics than there are science and mathematics classes to be taught will not be observed except in those cases (which may be frequent but not well documented by data)
From page 17...
... 1b do otherwise is to miss a significant part of any potential problem. FACI ORS AFFECTING DEMAND A data system able to track changes in the demand for precollege science and mathematics teachers must as a minimum be able to assess demographic factors, which include changes in student enrollment, in the ratio of male to female students in science and mathematics courses, and in the proportions of minority students in science and mathematics courses, as well as changes in policy variables, such as graduation requirements mandated by the state, entrance requirements of colleges and universities, and changes in acceptable pupil-teacher ratios.
From page 18...
... Thus, even very good national models need to be substantially augmented with accurate subnational migration data to produce useful demand projections at the relevant school district level. School enrollment itself is projected to rise somewhat during the next half-decade.
From page 19...
... For science, black seniors were well below whites in number of semester hours in 1972, but in 1980 black seniors had nearly caught up with whites, while all the other minority groups except Asian-American and Puerto Rican students were below whites. These data are for seniors, and high school dropout rates are much higher for minority students than for whites.
From page 20...
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From page 22...
... In response to changes in the graduation requirements of districts, states, and even in the entrance requirements of colleges and universities, increased enrollments in high school science and mathematics courses have been documented (Educational Testing Service, 1989~. The years between 1982 and 1987 have seen strong gains in science and mathematics coursetaking, except in physics and calculus, for which gains were modest or nonexistent.
From page 24...
... In our interim report, we noted that most of the existing supply models focus on the flow of new graduates of education degree programs, despite the fact that most of the new hires during recent years have come from other sources. The existing data, most commonly from the states and from periodic surveys at a national level, should be examined in greater detail to estimate future declines in the supply of available teachers, both for precollege science and mathematics and for precollege teachers generally.
From page 26...
... In short, monitoring the basic demographics of teacher age/experience, as well as the potential supply of new graduates and returnees from other occupations, will be crucially important to understanding the probable evolution of teacher supply over the next decade. QUALITY ISSUES IN SUPPLY AND DEMAND Much of the impetus for concern over the supply, demand, and quality of precollege science and mathematics teachers arises from the continuing evidence that U.S.
From page 27...
... The mathematics data are shown in Bibles 1.6 and 1.7. In the IEA mathematics study, the method used by the United States, England, and Wales to obtain a sufficiently large number of cooperating school districts, namely requesting participation of twice as many school districts as were needed with the expectation of a 50 percent cooperation rate, might be expected to produce a bias in achievement scores.
From page 28...
... 8 14 13 11 9 Total Number of Countries 15 17 13 13 13 8 a Students taking biology, chemistry, or physics in the terminal grade in school. Source: International Association for the Evaluation of Educational Achievement (1988:3~.
From page 29...
... The NAEP Science Report Card of September 1988 indicated that, despite gains over the past four years, particularly among minorities, a majority of high school students "are poorly equipped for informed citizenship and productive performance in the workplace" (National Assessment of Educational Progress, 1988b:5~. A problem with both NAEP and the IEA tests is the limited extent to which they assess higher-order skills.
From page 30...
... Concern over the ability of young people to function effectively in today's technical environment, given the inadequacy and often the total absence of science and mathematics training with any degree of rigor, looms as a major societal concern and is the subject of numerous recent reports.
From page 31...
... Educational outcomes are a complex function of student and family inputs, teaching inputs, educational curricula, school and community environment factors, and student behaviors, including student such as doing homework, attitudes toward science and mathematics, and scientific habits such as objectivity, skepticism, and replication of results (Murnane and Raizen, 1988~. Poor outcomes can clearly be due in part to the inadequate training of teachers, but they can also be due to factors that have little or nothing to do with the training and ability of the teacher corps.
From page 32...
... students have inadequate skills in science and mathematics simply because teachers, especially elementary school teachers, do not spend much classroom time on science and mathematics topics. Research indicates a great deal more time is devoted to reading than to mathematics (Cawelti and Adkisson, 1985; Weiss, 1987~.
From page 33...
... In any event, demographic characteristics have a potentially serious influence on the process of skill development in young children, and part of understanding educational outcomes is surely to understand how these home environment factors relate to these outcomes. In addition to the demographic differences in home environments, there also appear to be substantial differences in the practices, beliefs, and expectations of parents in American households compared with those in other countries.
From page 34...
... That could turn out to be the case, but many other factors, such as the structure of the curriculum, the practices of both K-12 school systems and teacher training institutions, the amount of time spent on science and mathematics topics in schools, and the influence of home environments on development outcomes, all need to be understood before we can expect either to understand the problem or to devise appropriate remedies. TlIE PANEL'S WORK AND ORGANIZATION OF THE REPORT During the course of its work, the panel broadened its understanding of the flow of teachers through school systems by direct contact with 39 public school districts across the country.
From page 35...
... The mini case studies were conducted over the period June through December 1988. Finally, a conference of the chief personnel administrators of seven large metropolitan school districts, representing over 5 percent of the nation's total public school enrollment, was convened in May 1988.2 Issues of supply, demand, and quality of science and mathematics teachers were discussed, and the districts' statistical information systems were examined for data relevant to supply and demand models.
From page 36...
... 36 PRECOLLEGE SCIENCE AND MATHEAL4TICS TEACHERS factors, and other recommendations deal with the types of research needed to better understand the linkages among demand, supply, teacher quality, and student outcomes and ways to facilitate this research.


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