Precollege Science and Mathematics Teachers Monitoring Supply, Demand, and Quality (1990) / Chapter Skim
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2. Determining Teacher Demand
2. Determining Teacher Demand
Pages 37-59
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From page 37... ...
Meaningful projections of the consequences of course-taking patterns or teacher attrition are typically less available than are projections of future student enrollment. Statewide enrollment projections are more reliable than those for local school districts.
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From page 38... ...
Most states and many local districts produce enrollment projections, particularly for the public schools, although some states produce them for both public and private schools. These projections typically follow a standard "cohort survival" methodolog I, which uses observed enrollment ratios between grades to move ("survive")
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From page 39... ...
The changing circumstances include net migration, which is picked up by the grade progression ratios. Geographic Differences in Projected K-12 Enrollment There are great differences among regions of the United States, and the localities within those regions, in prospective public school enrollment change over the next 10 to 20 years.
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From page 40... ...
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From page 41... ...
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From page 42... ...
One barrier to local enrollment projections is the reliability of small-population projections that are needed to estimate enrollment in kindergarten and the first grade. Fertility patterns can vary locally, and births and deaths may be reported for an area different from
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From page 43... ...
Using Census Population Projections to Estimate K-12 Enrollment Demand At the national level, projections of the population by age provide a very good proxy for enrollment projections, especially if the interest is in total enrollment demand and not just demand for public school teachers. This is particularly true for the population age 5 to 13, which has close to 100 percent attendance, virtually all of it in grades K through 8.
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From page 44... ...
There could even be a reduction in the absolute number of secondary school teachers employed over the next few years. However, change in the number of students is only one of the elements in the calculation of demand for teachers.
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From page 45... ...
The demographic changes referred to are usually changes in ethnic composition and family circumstances, especially increased proportions of children in single-parent families and/or
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From page 46... ...
Unless there is reason to believe that racial and ethnic groups will retain currently observed particular needs over the long run, projecting the racial and ethnic distribution of the school-age population, or of school enrollment, is of little utility for planning curricular or other change for science and mathematics. Very often, the effect of racial and ethnic change, especially the effect of the projected increases in the proportion of the population of Hispanic and Asian origin, is confounded with the effects of migration for example, an increase in the number of students with limited ability to speak English or from families with the low educational levels characteristic of Latin America and much of Southeast Asia.
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From page 47... ...
On the whole, ethnic identity has been gathered only sporadically in either the census or in vital statistics. Even were a group to arrive all at once, thereby providing a clear base population, and subsequently maintain accurate birth and death records, the accuracy of any long-range projection would be in doubt because of the likelihood of intermarriage and the lack of an agreedon definition of ethnic identity for the children.
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From page 48... ...
The shifts in ethnic distribution are not evenly distributed across the country, but'are concentrated in certain areas of the country. The proportion Hispanic has increased rapidly in California and other parts of the Southwest, mostly due to immigration, although the Hispanic population also has higher fertility.
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From page 49... ...
Among children of Spanish origin, one of every four lived with one parent. As has been relentlessly demonstrated in innumerable studies, poor children, so many of whom live in one-parent families, are at risk of school failure because of multiple disadvantages, which may include the lack of adequate housing, or any housing at all; frequent moves from school to school; less than sufficient food; inferior medical care; a total lack of dental care; exposure to criminal behavior in deteriorating neighborhoods; and the stress that accompanies the struggle of the adults in the family to survive.
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From page 50... ...
1b summarize, there are interesting and relevant trends that emerge from population projections, which should be included in any statistical description of the changing demand for teachers. However, for purposes of projecting demand for precollege science and mathematics teachers, the education community generally finds enrollment-based projections more useful Research Areas Related to Student Enrollment Methods employed in current teacher demand models, specifically the cohort survival methodology used to project enrollments, are relatively reliable.
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From page 51... ...
Changes in pupil-teacher ratios can be caused by a number of factors at the school, district, or state level: changes in school budgets; staffing patterns, class sizes, or teaching loads; graduation or program requirements; and course offerings. A layering of school, district, and state policies may add to the complexity of factors that change the ratio and the demand for teachers.
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From page 52... ...
As a time series of data becomes available, it will be possible to monitor changes in these variables over time. SASS includes a teacher demand and shortage questionnaire for public school districts and private schools, as well as a school administrator questionnaire for public school principals and private school
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From page 53... ...
They track mathematics and science as general categories, however, listing only the number of courses or years of science and mathematics that are required for graduation. SASS includes an item in the teacher demand and shortage questionnaire for public school districts on high school graduation requirements, by subject (physical and biological sciences, mathematics/computer science)
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From page 54... ...
NELS:88 asks middle schools and junior high schools for data on numerous courses and whether they are offered. In a more detailed format, questions on course offerings are included in the SASS teacher questionnaire.
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From page 55... ...
Despite enrollment declines, school boards may decide not to lay off staff in science and mathematics if they have had difficulty hiring them in the past, or if they feel it will be hard to find qualified teachers of certain subjects in the future (Prowda and Grissmer, 1986:12~. Moreover, supply-demand projections for precollege science and mathematics teachers will be far more meaningful if both enrollments and pupil-teacher ratios are disaggregated by subject area.
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From page 56... ...
In aggregating attrition data gathered from school districts it is important to avoid double counting, since what is attrition to one district might be a new hire to another. The Connecticut model of teacher supply and demand revealed how important age is in estimating attrition rates (Prowda and Grissmer, 1986~: "We have noted high early career attrition rates, low mid-career attrition, and high attrition around 60 and 65 years old" (p.l)
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From page 57... ...
In addition to reflecting age or years of experience, calculating attrition for mathematics and science teachers requires gathering the necessary data by specific field, a considerably more demanding task than obtaining the data for the entire teaching force. There are studies that have gathered discipline-specific data (Murnane and Olsen, 1989a, l990b; Grissmer and Kirby, 1987)
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From page 58... ...
The demand for teachers also depends on changes in pupil-teacher ratios, caused by changes in staffing patterns, class size, teaching loads, course requirements, and course offerings in mathematics and science. In addition, a school district's demand for new science and mathematics teachers in a given hiring season also depends on the number of vacancies in those subjects.
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From page 59... ...
Data on state-mandated high school course requirements, collected regularly over time and by science or mathematics subject, could suggest changes in demand for teachers of various types or levels of courses. School district requirements often exceed state requirements, but with both state and district data we could- begin to trace how changes in course requirements stimulate changes in demand for secondary science and mathematics teachers.
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