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Estimating Losses from Future Earthquakes Panel Report (1989) / Chapter Skim
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3. Ground-Shaking Hazard
Pages 20-25

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From page 20...
... There are two general approaches to evaluating scenario earthquakes that are commonly referred to as deterministic and probabilistic methods, although elements of judgment and uncertainty are present in both. DETERMINISTIC METHODS In this method, one or more earthquakes are postulated without explicit consideration of the probability that those events will occur.
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From page 21...
... The proper characteristics of the scenario earthquake for use in planning how to respond to a validated earthquake prediction would be the predicted earthquake's magnitude, location, or other available seismological information accompanying the prediction. Except for the greater potential for controversy concerning predicted earthquakes, the other aspects of loss estimation are the same for nonpredicted scenario earthquakes.
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From page 22...
... For such situations, it would be useful to have a systematic method for selecting the scenario earthquakes that meet the criteria of being plausible but damaging. Probabilistic hazard analysis offers this possibility, and is discussed in a report of the National Research Council (1987~.
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From page 23...
... (log scale) FIGURE 3-1 Graphs indicating probabilistic seismic hazard analysis steps.
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From page 24...
... Some on the panel interpret the MMI scale as implying that intensity X represents maximum possible ground shaking. Others feel that ground shaking stronger than that associated with MMI X is possible, and there have been some instances in which loss estimators have used MMI XT and XII to represent increasingly strong ground shaking apart from ground failures.
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From page 25...
... While geotechnical data collected at individual construction sites can be very valuable in this effort, more generalized geologic mapping of districts and zones in a city or region is also useful and can lead to refinements in seismic hazard analyses. The essential requirement is to make clear whether the intensity in a scenario earthquake applies to the ground as it is locally found (i.e., no further correction for local soil conditions required)
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Key Terms

  • maximum earthquake
  • scenario earthquakes
  • ground shaking
  • scenario earthquake
  • ground motion

  • hazard analysis
  • probabilistic methods
  • site conditions
  • local site
  • strong ground

  • earthquake larger
  • analysis offers
  • seismic hazard
  • ground failures
  • loss estimate

  • produce ground
  • requires explicit
  • estimate study
  • loss estimates
  • standard ground

  • mmi scale
  • actual local
  • conditions local
  • indicating probabilistic
  • earlier loss

  • increasingly strong
  • log scale
  • concerning predicted
  • proper characteristics
  • predicted earthquakes


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