Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (1990) / Chapter Skim
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Summary of Recommendations
Summary of Recommendations
Pages 1-8
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was initiated in FY 1990 as the federal government's effort to "establish the scientific basis for national and international policy-making relating to national and human-induced changes in the global change earth system" (CES, 1990~. The objectives of the program are to establish an integrated, comprehensive, long-term program of documenting the earth system on a global scale; develop integrated conceptual and predictive earth system models; and conduct a program of focused studies to improve understanding of the physical, geological, chemical, biological, and social processes that influence earth system processes and trends on global and regional scales.
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Modeling these interactions requires coupling successional models to biogeochemical models to physiological models. The models must address how global environmental changes, including the effects of land use and chemical stress, affect terrestrial ecosystems and how ecosystem changes affect the global system.
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Each of these initiatives requires a combination of process studies, modeling activities of the particular components of the system addressed by the initiative, and observations to collect pertinent data. The efforts to document and develop integrated models of the earth system support and are supported by these initiatives, but each initiative also has distinct data and modeling requirements.
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Human Sources of Global Change In order to gain a systematic understanding of how human activities alter the global environment, particularly through changes in land use and industrial metabolism, the committee recommends that · integrative models of human sources of industrial emissions and land cover change be developed, particularly global models of how human activities relating to agriculture cause changes in chemical fluxes and land cover, global models of changes in greenhouse gas emissions from human sources, and regional models of how human activities cause land cover conversions of tropical forests and wetlands. · studies be initiated on the social and economic forces driving the following processes important for global change: fertilization in agriculture, biomass burning, and intensity of energy and material use.
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process studies and field campaigns be initiated to test models relating biophysical and biochemical states to surface fluxes and remotely sensed variables, including models that link surface states and radiances, models that relate water use efficiency and concentrations of carbon and nutrients, and models that relate ecosystem structure and function and ecosystem response to global changes. · modeling initiatives be implemented including development of coupled land surface parameterizations (LSPs)
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from a variety of terrestrial ecosystems, especially those likely to be significant regional and global sources, e.g., wet tropical regions, coastal marshes, boreal forest peatlands, tundra bogs, rice paddies, landfills, and industry. · improvement of the data base describing ozone deposition in various ecosystems and the responses of ecosystems to acid deposition.
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Relative priorities for monitoring individual variables must be judged not only in terms of their contribution to the monitoring requirements but also in terms of their importance for validating models and advancing our understanding of specific processes and the readiness of the observation and analysis techniques involved. Globally synthesized products derived from measurements for example, a global data set for latent heat flux derived from data on radiation balance, temperature, moisture, and field studies-will be required to achieve the modeling objectives described in chapter 2.
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1988. Toward an Understanding of Global Change: Initial Priorities for U.S.
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