Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (1990) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
4 Human Sources of Global Change
4 Human Sources of Global Change
Pages 108-130
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 108... ...
This chapter formulates a research plan for achieving a better understanding of the human sources of global change by the end of the decade This chapter was prepared for the Committee on Global Change by Robert W Kales, Brown University, Chairman; William C
|
From page 109... ...
ECONOMY, lECHNOLOGY. AND INSmUTIONS | LAND TRANSFORMATIONS ~ -~ =~ - ~ GLOBAL EARTH SYSTEM LUND COVER __ GIDBAL GREENHOUSE INFORMAllON GLOBAL CONVERSION: ENERGY EMISSIONS ~/W AGRICULTURE WEIWIDS PROCESS SmDIES DATA SOURCES - IN~NSllY OF ENERGY AND MATERL41S USE - DY~LU~ICS OF INDUSrRLAU TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE - REGIONAL EVOWrlON OF INDUSTRIAL METABOLISM - ENERGY AND MATERLAlS USE DATA - INDUSlRIAL PROCESS DATA - REGIONAL PRODUCrlON, CONSUMPTION, AND INDUSTRIAL PROCESS DATA 109 - FERTILIZATION - BIOMASS BURNING - IlVESrOCK DEVELOPMENT - IANDUSE CAPABILITY/ POPULATION GIS - LAND TENURE AND SeE OF HOLDINGS DATA BASE - REGIONAL CASE STUDIES FIGURE 4.1 Recommended 1990-1995 research initiatives on human sources of global change.
|
From page 110... ...
To develop analytical frameworks through integrative models of human sources of emissions and land cover change, the committee recommends foci on . global agriculture, · global greenhouse gas emissions, and regional land cover conversion, particularly in tropical forests and wetlands.
|
From page 111... ...
It includes data on human activities that lead to changes in the chemical flows, physical properties, and surface covers of interest, as well as data on demographic, technical, and socioeconomic variables. Process studies: Two types of studies fall under the heading "process." They are most easily distinguished by the following simple model of global environmental change.
|
From page 112... ...
Thus we are looking here for models or analytical frameworks that allow for the development of consistent future scenarios of human activities that force global environmental change. Synthesis is required to combine the two types of process studies, and to develop approaches that integrate the changes from land use and industrial metabo lism.
|
From page 113... ...
Second, research has shown that the emergence of lead technologies such as textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, and electronics has in the past led to radical transformations in the overall character of industrial metabolism. These historical cycles of technology dominance suggest the emergence of one, perhaps two, new lead technologies over the next century, with major implications for emissions and waste streams.
|
From page 114... ...
Studies seeking to understand the trends in energy and materials intensities are critical to an understanding of the human forcing of global environmental change because these intensities are one of the key determinants of the environmental insult caused by economic or industrial activity. There are three previous studies of particular relevance to this research area.
|
From page 115... ...
Because of this linkage, improved understanding of the factors that influence the development and diffusion of technology will significantly improve our understanding of the human forcing of global environmental change and improve our ability to develop future scenarios
|
From page 116... ...
Finally, previous research at the level of the technological eras has shown that lead technologies such as textiles, iron and steel, chemicals, and electronics characterize major eras, as do their power sources of water, steam, electricity, and gasoline. Conflicting and somewhat controversial theories exist that purport to explain the assembly and differences of these lead technologies and their associated economic impacts but little has been done
|
From page 117... ...
LAND TRANSFORMATIONS Throughout most of history, the primary way in which humans have effected change in the global environment has been by transforming the earth's land surface. In many less industrialized regions, it remains so
|
From page 118... ...
Integration and Synthesis The committee identifies two integrative modeling initiatives in the field of land transformation. The first is the creation of a global model of agricultural activities and their associated impacts on land use, land cover, earth surface properties, and chemical flows.
|
From page 119... ...
. In other words, the model must adequately represent the relationship between technical and institutional factors, land transformations, the global environmental impact of those transformations, and the impact on the local, national, and international economies.
|
From page 120... ...
, including the synergisms among them, such that the impacts of policy can be projected. Process Studies The committee identifies three land transformation processes for which deeper understanding is urgently required to promote the overall goals of global change research.
|
From page 121... ...
Biomass Burning Fire, as reflected in biomass burning, is estimated to account for 25 to 30 percent of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions to the atmosphere.9 In addition, it accounts for a significant portion of the emissions of other greenhouse gases, including methane, nitrous oxides, nitrogen oxide, and carbon monoxide (U.S.
|
From page 122... ...
First is a capability to compare population census data, land cover data, land use data, and land capability data within a common information system. Second is the development of a global data base on land tenure and size of holdings-two variables of importance in determining patterns of land transformation.
|
From page 123... ...
These should serve as pilot efforts that lead to the development of regional research sites where research on long-term patterns of social, economic, and ecological change can be brought together. INTEGRATIVE STUDIES ACROSS LAND USE AND INDUSTRY Our ultimate goal is not just to understand industrial metabolism or land transformation, but rather to understand the ways in which human activities in general force changes in the earth system.
|
From page 124... ...
Global Model of Greenhouse Gas Emissions The first generation of global models applied to the greenhouse problem addressed a single human activity-energy use and a single greenhouse gas-carbon dioxide. The need is now clear for a second generation of models that address all the major gases and all the major human sources arising from both industrial and land use activities.
|
From page 125... ...
Further systematic study of these relations is needed. IMPLEMENTATION REQUIREMENTS Related Institutional Efforts on Human Interactions with Global Change As discussed above, the research agenda defined in this chapter is sharply focused on obtaining a better understanding of the human forcing of global environmental change.
|
From page 126... ...
The National Academy of Engineering shares the interest of the Committee on Global Change in industrial metabolism as part of its Technology and the Environment Program. Of Investigator-Initiated Research A strong program of investigator-initiated research is necessary to complement the highly focused nature of the research program outlined in this chapter, concentrating as it does on the human sources as inputs to the evolving model of the earth system.
|
From page 127... ...
. THE STEPS BEYOND The initial research program on human interactions with global change will almost surely be overtaken by events: critical observations of ongoing global change and rapidly increasing interest in impacts and policy research.
|
From page 128... ...
models. The PY 1990 initiatives for the human dimensions of global environmental change as specified by the CEES are listed below: (1)
|
From page 129... ...
1988. Modeling Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
|
From page 130... ...
1989. Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.