Research Strategies for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (1990) / Chapter Skim
Currently Skimming:
Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change
Appendix B: A Selective Literature Review on the Human Sources of Global Environmental Change
Pages 246-284
The Chapter Skim interface presents what we've algorithmically identified as the most significant single chunk of text within every page in the chapter.
Select key terms on the right to highlight them within pages of the chapter.
From page 246... ...
Section 1, integrative modeling studies, highlights examples of research that has developed a synthetic framework or model capable of generating consistent scenarios of global environmental change. Section 2 describes studies on industrial transformations of material and energy, while section 3 describes studies on land use transformations.
|
From page 247... ...
1.1 Impacts of World Development on Selected Charactensi`cs of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach (Darmstadter et al., 1987) This study focuses on"development, atmospheric emissions associated with development, and atmospheric impacts caused by emissions." It was an interdisciplinary collaborative effort that grew out of discussions at a conference sponsored by the Sustainable Development of the Biosphere Program at the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)
|
From page 248... ...
Department of Energy to examine future scenarios of CO2 emissions. "The long-term, global energy-CO2 model was developed to provide a consistent and conditional representation of economic, demographic and energy interactions (Edmonds and Reilly, 1983~." Although this model looks only at emissions from fossil fuel use, it is a prime example of synthesis in that it combines energy supply and demand scenarios (driving forces include economic and demographic factors)
|
From page 249... ...
This study has compiled the best available estimates of emission coefficients for all greenhouse gases. Future activity levels are determined by population growth, economic development, and technological change.
|
From page 250... ...
The study combines models of activity levels with information on emission coefficients to develop an analytical framework that relates the underlying forces of population, economic development, and technological change to the emissions of all the important greenhouse gases. The study uses several detailed models of individual components to inform this general framework.
|
From page 251... ...
This study develops a scenario based on conventional wisdom and several based on not impossible alternatives to the most likely scenario. These alternatives are based on surprises, or turning points from the conventional wisdom scenario.
|
From page 252... ...
Equally important is gaining an understanding of the dynamics of industrial metabolisms: what are the factors causing changes, how have they changed over time, and what are possible future industrial metabolisms. This section is divided into four subsections: materials balance studies, trends in material and energy intensity, long wave studies, and global energy modeling.
|
From page 253... ...
"Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuel Combustion: Trends, Resources, and Technological Implications" (Rotty and Masters, 1985~. This study develops global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion for the years 1860 to 1982.
|
From page 254... ...
The topic of whether the industrialized countries are experiencing a decline in material intensity and energy intensity, a trend called "dematerialization," is relevant to scenarios of future environmental effects from industrialization. This section reviews studies of material intensity and energy intensity and studies of substitution of one material for another.
|
From page 255... ...
The authors suggest defining dematerialization as "the amount of waste generated per unit industrial product." Their goal is to look at forces "beyond the obviously very powerful forces of economic and population growth." Data. The authors provide data that shows that solid waste streams from consumers have been growing.
|
From page 256... ...
This work presents the findings of the End Use Global Energy Project, a study by an international team of researchers. It analyzes energy demand from an end use perspective, with a focus on energy efficiency improvements that are technically possible using commercially available or near-commercial technologies.
|
From page 257... ...
The result is a normative model which shows that human needs can be satisfied (including improved standards of living) with much lower energy consumption than projected by "conventional wisdom" scenarios.
|
From page 258... ...
The logistic substitution model predicts that natural gas will be the dominant energy source for the next 50 years, peaking at 70 percent of world energy supply. This paper examined the emission levels based on this scenario of energy supply.
|
From page 259... ...
with CO2 emission factors derived from an understanding of various combustion processes to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. The model is constructed to facilitate the examination of alternative future energy paths based on different assumptions about prices, population, economic growth, technological change, and supply constraints.
|
From page 260... ...
This model combines a neoclassical economic framework to determine future energy use with information on CO2 emission coefficients to produce estimates of CO2 emissions. This model can be used to perform a simple probabilistic scenario analysis.
|
From page 261... ...
The section then turns to studies of three land transformation processes of particular concern for global environmental change: wetland transformation, deforestation, and biomass burning. Other land transformation processes that are important to global environmental change, but that have not been reviewed below due to time constraints include desertification, irrigation, soil erosion, and urbanization.
|
From page 262... ...
It then has a chapter on "transformation of land in pre-industrial times" and one on "the industrial revolution and land transformation." The latter identifies the key forces causing change in agriculture over time as population growth, urbanization, industrialization, transport changes, and the role of science and the state. It then discusses three major types of farming and their evolution: Western European farming, the rice economies of Asia, and shifting cultivation and bush fallowing in the tropics.
|
From page 263... ...
The stage for these five studies is set by the lead chapter of the section, which examines long-term, regional population changes, and the section is set in intellectual context by a concluding chapter on the history of beliefs regarding transformation, which themselves may also be seen as real or potential human forces of environmental change. Section II, Transformations of the Global Environment, consists of 18 papers that address the principal objective of the volume, a stocktaking of the major transformations of the biosphere wrought by human action over the past 300 years.
|
From page 264... ...
The global economy continues to be a significant factor in the twentieth century. Thus, in addition to rural population growth as a factor in deforestation (through demands on timber and land resources for agriculture)
|
From page 265... ...
This work is cited in World Resources 1988-1989 (World Resources Institute and International Institute for Environment and Development, 1988~. It has not been reviewed by this author.
|
From page 266... ...
, and "Alternative Renewable Resource Strategies: A Simulation of Optimal Use" (Staving, 1989~. These two papers develop an economically driven model of the conversion between forested wetlands and farmland in the Lower Mississippi Alluvial Plain.
|
From page 267... ...
It suggests where and why these estimates are most in error (see also Robinson, 1986~. It provides a detailed review of aerosol and trace gas emissions from burning, with a compilation of emission coefficients and global estimates.
|
From page 268... ...
The parameters A through D were generally estimated by a critical review of values cited in the literature. Synthesis.
|
From page 269... ...
, and "Alternative Renewable Resource Strategies: A Simulation of Optimal Use" (Staving, 1989) These two discussion papers examine the conversion between forested wetlands and farmland in the lower Mississippi alluvial plain.
|
From page 270... ...
A detailed review of agriculture models, with a focus on the ability of these models to illuminate relationships between development and environment, is found in Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review (Toth et al., 1989~. Another comprehensive review of these models, with a focus on the relationship between population growth and food, is found in Srinivasan (1988~.
|
From page 271... ...
The food production potential model is static. The economic model is based on an economic equilibrium model with international trade in food.
|
From page 272... ...
Projections are made for 1-year periods to the year 2010. 3.4.3 Exploring National Food Policies in an International Setting (Parikh, 1981)
|
From page 273... ...
The global forest sector model is a partial equilibrium model using a nonlinear programming framework. The model has four modules: timber supply, forest products industry, product demand, and international trade.
|
From page 274... ...
· Annual global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion for the years 1860 to 1982 (Rotty and Masters, 1985~. · CO2 releases from land clearing for agricultural purposes, for the years 1860 to 1986 (Richards et al., 1983~.
|
From page 275... ...
(1989~. For a critical review of global population modeling, see Keyfitz (1981, 1982)
|
From page 276... ...
(eds.) , Scenarios of Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A Critical Review.
|
From page 277... ...
1987. Impacts of World Development on Selected Characteristics of the Atmosphere: An Integrative Approach.
|
From page 278... ...
198Sa. Fume globe energy Ad cyan dioxide emls~o=.
|
From page 279... ...
World Resources Institute, Washington, D.C. Goldemberg, J., T.B.
|
From page 280... ...
1987. The Global Forest Sector.
|
From page 281... ...
1988. Land based models for forest resource supply analysis: A critical review.
|
From page 282... ...
1985. Carbon dioxide from fossil fuel combustion: Trends, resources and technological implications.
|
From page 283... ...
1989. Scenarios of~Socioeconomic Development for Studies of Global Environmental Change: A 'Critical Review.
|
From page 284... ...
1984. World Development Report 1984.
|
Key Terms
This material may be derived from roughly machine-read images, and so is provided only to facilitate research.
More
information on Chapter Skim is available.