Climate, Climatic Change, and Water Supply (1977) / Chapter Skim
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6. Water-Resource Systems Planning
6. Water-Resource Systems Planning
Pages 99-110
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From page 99... ...
If climatic changes are reflected in a decrease in precipitation or prolongation of drought periods, then watersupply systems in years ahead may be stressed. The uncertainties as to the nature and magnitude of climatic changes and of consequent impacts on water resources compound the problems of uncertainty associated with
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From page 100... ...
Whether the differences in statistical properties are suff~cient to offset the utility of the reconstructed flows in planning and management of water-resource systems remains to be determined. Apart from a few efforts to reconstruct flow sequences on the basis of tree-ring and other geochronologic rec ords, hydrologic modeling has been concerned mainly with short-range forecasting of runoff events rather than predicting long-run hydrologic impacts of climatic changes.
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From page 101... ...
Changes in the timing and magnitude of floods would impact the operation of reservoirs for flood control, hydropower, or water supply. If climatic change is in the form of longer periods of rainfall deficiency relative to long-term regional averages, then droughts measured in terms of low flows may be intensified in terms of both flow deficiencies and their duration.
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From page 102... ...
and 3(b) indicates that the same design Di (or some slight modification thereof would serve over an area of the (,u,~-plane attached to some climatic scenario, precise specification of those parameter values becomes unimportant in the design of the water-resource system.
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From page 103... ...
Because of the complex delaying phenomena that are part of the hydrologic cycle and that are expressed in runoff and storage relations, we can only imprecisely map climatic shifts into changes in flow patterns (and even less well can we impute or detect climatic changes from flow changes)
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From page 104... ...
. Suppose Tree discrete designs are available, Mat each corresponds to a set of population moments, and that net benefits can be arrayed in a matrix whose elements represent net benefits (however calculated and discounted)
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From page 105... ...
mat tor their columns because the optimal design (by definition) returns net benefits that are larger than those that would accrue to any other decision.
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From page 106... ...
-sample plane and projected downward onto the (,u,~-population plane. This projection is not merely a vertical transfer of the envelope.
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From page 107... ...
I l at probability | level pa | ~ ;7 Population plane FIGURE 6.6 Regret in system design. _ S / ,D5,~ / / D3 // D4 / Sample Plane x Population Plane ~ D2 C/ross-hatched areas / D3 ~ D4 / imply Regret ~ D ~ / ~ Projection of D5/ FIGURE 6.7 Regret in system design.
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From page 108... ...
On the other hand, a farmer might be willing to relinquish some of his water rights if he were convinced that climatic shifts would lead to increased water availability or increased precipitation whereby dry-land farming would be profitable. There are system objective functions that, when applied to the regret matrix, can be used to identify nondominated design alternatives for future negotiation and tradeoff.
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From page 109... ...
NBx This chapter does not resolve any issues by providing statistical tests and algorithms for adapting standard design rules to the case in which climatic shift is a potential perturbation on system design. Rather, it lays out a formalism for economic, institutional, and social adaptation to a variety of political perceptions on the value of hydrometeorologic information in reducing risk of error in anticipation of climatic shifts.
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From page 110... ...
. Surface water network design by regression analysis simulation, Water Resources Res.
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