Carbon Dioxide and Climate A Second Assessment (1982) / Chapter Skim
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PREDICTIONS AND SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGES DUE TO CO2 INCREASES
PREDICTIONS AND SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGES DUE TO CO2 INCREASES
Pages 48-60
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From page 48... ...
Nevertheless, internally consistent and detailed specifications of climatic conditions over space and time may be extremely useful for analysis of social 48
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From page 49... ...
First, these studies can be used to check the reliability of climate models for a variety of different conditions; if a particular model is able to reproduce the characteristics of several different climates that are known to have existed, one has greater confidence that the model takes into account all relevant processes. Second, if a climate model exhibits large climatic changes due to some perturbation such as a CO2 increase, observational studies can demonstrate directly or by analogy that such large changes are indeed possible.
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From page 50... ...
MODEL STUDIES Numerical Experiments with Climate Models Mathematical models of climate with a wide range of complexity have been used to estimate climate changes resulting from an increase in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. These models include not only 1-D RC models but also comprehensive GCM'S of the joint ocean-atmosphere system.
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From page 51... ...
included in Table 3.1 for completeness are much smaller than the others because the imposed condition of fixed seasurface temperature places a strong constraint on the changes of surface air temperatures in their model atmospheres. In contrast to the warming of the troposphere, both RC models and GCM'S indicate that a cooling of the stratosphere would result from an increase of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere.
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From page 52... ...
52 at p fe .
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From page 53... ...
Zonal-Average Response Temperature. Climate sensitivity studies indicate that the CO2-induced increase of surface air temperature would have significant latitudinal and seasonal variations.
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From page 54... ...
Unlike the temperature response to a CO2 doubling, the soil moisture response is of the same order of magnitude as the climatological interannual variability, and thus a lower signal-to-noise ratio is. obtained in these experiments.
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From page 55... ...
Geographical Distribution of Climate Changes Local climate has a much larger temporal variability than the zonal-mean or global-mean climate. In order to distinguish a CO2-induced climate change from the natural variations in the local model climate, an extensive time integration of a climate model is required.
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From page 56... ...
The role of contemporary data sets in these three areas is well known and requires no elaboration. The role of past climatic data sets is perhaps less generally recognized.
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From page 57... ...
There are, as noted above, certain inherent weaknesses to the approach, and more attention should be given to these problems. The currently available results do not provide a firm basis for climatic assessment of possible CO2-induced climatic changes, nor should they be considered
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From page 58... ...
2. As with contemporary data sets, past climate data sets provide the potential for observing many components of the climate system: ocean, land surface, cryosphere.
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From page 59... ...
. Careful dating control is essential, and this is a serious limitation of many past climate data sets at present.
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From page 60... ...
. As with contemporary studies, the currently available reconstructions based on past climatic data are useful starting points for further work but are not yet adequate for model validation studies or impact studies.
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