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Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling Volume II, Technical Papers (1991) / Chapter Skim
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Pages 245-246

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From page 245...
... Then Efron presents the following variance estimate: H ~ ah _ ~-h ~ 2 /H This variance estimate is relatively cheap computationally and also can be used on quadratic statistics. MODELS AND VARIABILITY Before continuing on to a discussion of how one might apply sample reuse techniques to the estimation of the variability of the output of a microsimulation model, it is important to briefly discuss philosophically what is meant by "model" and "variance." In a complicated modeling effort, including microsimulation modeling, there is often no precise definition of the model.
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From page 246...
... But consider whether a microsimulation model contains an aging module or the type of aging module it contains. The decision of which type of aging module to include introduces a type of variability into the results, although this is considered by many analysts a proper subject for a sensitivity analysis, rather than a component of the variance.
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Key Terms

  • projection models
  • sensitivity analysis
  • variance estimate
  • simulation modeling
  • variability due

  • microsimulation model
  • control totals
  • input data
  • sample surveys
  • aging module

  • simulation model
  • microsimulation modeling


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